MLB Off-season discussion

Dave · Post by **Dave** » Fri Dec 02, 2005 2:50 pm

I'm with DB about Burnett--someone's going to overpay for him.

Beat me to the news, DB!

I think it is a pretty good deal, getting Castillo for those two. Bowyer has a dominating fastball but nothing else. Not sure if he has closer stuff in the bigs. Never heard of the other guy...pretty good deal for the Twins, I think. Anything that keeps Nick Punto away from the everyday lineup is better than nothing.

dbdynsty25 · Post by **dbdynsty25** » Fri Dec 02, 2005 2:54 pm

Beat ya to it Dave...seems like a very good trade for the Twins. I didn't know the Marlins were giving away their ENTIRE team. Sheesh. Rumor has it, Pierre is on his way out as well.

Hell, the only guy the fish will have left is Miggy.

tjung0831 · Post by **tjung0831** » Fri Dec 02, 2005 2:56 pm

dbdynsty25 wrote:
tjung0831 wrote:Rumors are starting to trickle in that the Cardinals may have inked AJ Burnett.
Enjoy. You will likely regret that if you paid him any more than 8 mil a year...like I mentioned previously.

Well he's still young and has a lot of potential. Hell the Cardinals turned Suppan and Marquis in 16 game winners so Burnett should only benefit. They will obviously not resign Matt Morris if they do in fact sign Burnett. This also allows them the option of trading Marquis or Mulder for an outfielder. Mulder could definitely be on the block..

dbdynsty25 · Post by **dbdynsty25** » Fri Dec 02, 2005 3:00 pm

tjung0831 wrote:Well he's still young and has a lot of potential.

Ahhh...that's funny. At what point does "young" and "potential" merge with just an average baseball player? The guy has been in the majors for SEVEN years. It's not like he was in his third year or something like Marquis was...(not to mention he came from the Braves who initially taught him how to pitch). I just think you've seen what you're going to see from Burnett. He'll probably win a few more games, assuming he stays healthy, just because the Cardinals have a great offense. I wouldn't going into it expecting his ERA to drop though.

tjung0831 · Post by **tjung0831** » Fri Dec 02, 2005 3:03 pm

dbdynsty25 wrote:
tjung0831 wrote:Well he's still young and has a lot of potential.
Ahhh...that's funny. At what point does "young" and "potential" merge with just an average baseball player? The guy has been in the majors for SEVEN years. It's not like he was in his third year or something like Marquis was...(not to mention he came from the Braves who initially taught him how to pitch). I just think you've seen what you're going to see from Burnett. He'll probably win a few more games, assuming he stays healthy, just because the Cardinals have a great offense. I wouldn't going into it expecting his ERA to drop though.

I think the Cardinals thinking is that Burnett is a Dave Duncan project. They believe that Duncan can get him turned around and be a dominating pitcher.

10spro · Post by **10spro** » Fri Dec 02, 2005 3:08 pm

It's interesting so far to see that in the pitching department, teams are focusing first, or has been kind ( dollar value) to setup men and closers so far.

Dave · Post by **Dave** » Fri Dec 02, 2005 3:09 pm

10spro wrote:It's interesting so far to see that in the pitching department, teams are focusing first, or has been kind ( dollar value) to setup men and closers so far.

Hopefully that means that some team is willing to give up a good player for JC Romero...

sportdan30 · Post by **sportdan30** » Fri Dec 02, 2005 3:34 pm

tjung0831 wrote:Rumors are starting to trickle in that the Cardinals may have inked AJ Burnett.

Oy vey. This I am not overly enthusiastic about. I realize the Cards have been coveting a hard throwing pitcher for quite some time, but a guy with an overall record of 49-50 who's played on a competitive ballclub does not excite me. Maybe if he had been with Milwaukee or Detroit.

This signing would ineviteably bring the trade of Marquis for an outfielder (hopefully) and letting Matt Morris walk. That's a lot of dough for Burnett when they desperately need bullpen help, an outfielder, and bench help.

EDIT: And a second baseman!

Kazuya · Post by **Kazuya** » Fri Dec 02, 2005 4:14 pm

What is it with you guys and wins and losses? For a pitcher, they are almost useless... you should all hold Cy Young votes.

Heck at least use quality starts, which isn't a great stat but has something to do with how well a pitcher pitched and not something he has no control of like whether his offense or bullpen shows up. I guess that Clemens guy was pretty crappy last year... he was 13-8, while Chan Ho Park went 12-8

sfz_T-car · Post by **sfz_T-car** » Fri Dec 02, 2005 4:46 pm

I generally agree w/ Kaz about W-L but in Burnett's case, it's not totally off the mark. Here's a game by game breakdown of Burnett's 2005 season http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/g ... yerId=4153. He generally wasn't a victim of poor run support or a shaky bullpen. He just sucked in about half his starts.

I've had him in fantasy leagues the past two years, so I'm sensitive to his lack of consistency. When he's on, Burnett is unhittable. But he has more than his share of stinkers. Somebody is going to pay Burnett #1 money, but he has yet to develop into a true ace--a big game pitcher who you can count on to halt a mini losing streak, or can gut it out on a day when he doesn't have his best stuff.

HipE · Post by **HipE** » Fri Dec 02, 2005 4:47 pm

It's hard to believe the money these players that have signed recently or are about to sign are getting. $10 million a year for Wagner? $6 million a year for Tom Gordon? $10 million a year for Furcal? I thought it was too much when the Pirates gave Jack Wilson $4 million a year last season, is Furcal really worth 2.5 times what an overpaid Wilson is worth? Jason Bay, one of the best young hitters in baseball and the Pirates franchise player, just signed a long term extension worth $5 million a year I believe. I'm glad the Pirates got the deal done before some of these recent signings, I can't believe that Tom Gordon is worth more money than Jason Bay. Weren't the owners making it a point to show some restraint in spending before the start of the 2004 season? I guess nobody learned from that near work stoppage.

Kazuya · Post by **Kazuya** » Fri Dec 02, 2005 4:53 pm

sfz_T-car wrote:I generally agree w/ Kaz about W-L but in Burnett's case, it's not totally off the mark. Here's a game by game breakdown of Burnett's 2005 season http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/g ... yerId=4153. He generally wasn't a victim of poor run support or a shaky bullpen. He just sucked in about half his starts.

I've had him in fantasy leagues the past two years, so I'm sensitive to his lack of consistency. When he's on, Burnett is unhittable. But he has more than his share of stinkers. Somebody is going to pay Burnett #1 money, but he has yet to develop into a true ace--a big game pitcher who you can count on to halt a mini losing streak, or can gut it out on a day when he doesn't have his best stuff.

Well, he can certainly stand to improve but you can't look at his won/loss record to make that judgment. I'm looking at losses and yeah, I see a few 7-1s, and a 10-2 or something. But where as some guys get a loss if they give up 2 runs, the flip side is that some guys go out and give up 6 runs in 6 innings and still get an ND or even a win. That is why you can't trust W-L for comparison purposes. Burnett did not get shelled that much, he was tied for 7th in quality starts. Like I said, he's not Cy Young but he had a decent season last year. Certainly deserved better than 12-12.

Edit: I do absolutely agree that while he has ace stuff, he is not an ace because of the intangibles you mentioned.

Kazuya · Post by **Kazuya** » Fri Dec 02, 2005 5:01 pm

HipE wrote:I'm glad the Pirates got the deal done before some of these recent signings, I can't believe that Tom Gordon is worth more money than Jason Bay.

I know it seems a bit out of whack, but Tom Gordon has been absolute death on both lefties and righties for the past two seasons. About the only guy that's been better in the AL as a relief pitcher is maybe Joe Nathan and of course, the great Rivera. If Gordon wasn't 38, nobody would even be mentioning it. He also shows no signs of slowing down whatsoever, same great curveball, same 95 mph fastball. He's not going to just spontaneously die of old age on the mound next year... the Phillies did just fine.

And Jason Bay sigining for what he did isn't about his quality, it's just the way of things. It's like Michael Young signing for the paltry contract he did before 2004. Bay is terrific, his next contract will I'm sure bust many a wallet...

Dave · Post by **Dave** » Fri Dec 02, 2005 5:09 pm

HipE wrote:It's hard to believe the money these players that have signed recently or are about to sign are getting ... Weren't the owners making it a point to show some restraint in spending before the start of the 2004 season? I guess nobody learned from that near work stoppage.

The money is ridiculous. The have/have not gap continues to grow. The owners have new revenue this year from the XM Radio deal as well as the upcoming sale of the Nationals. Too many feel like you have to immediately spend the money, even if it is for a closer who will be 41 when the deal expires.

As I mentioned before, it makes it depressing to follow the hot stove if you cheer on a small market squad.

sfz_T-car · Post by **sfz_T-car** » Fri Dec 02, 2005 6:16 pm

The big difference with Bay's $$$ is that he isn't eligible for free agency yet. The extension he signed this year will cover his arbitration years but positions him for a big raise when the current contract ends. It's no coincidence that his deal ends the year he gains free agent eligibility.

dbdynsty25 · Post by **dbdynsty25** » Sun Dec 04, 2005 4:04 am

Wow...Furcal to the Dodgers...3 years 40 mil? Holy crap. I mean, I like the kid and all, but 13 mil a year? Hell no.

And in other news...the Dodgers will still suck.

CincyKid · Post by **CincyKid** » Sun Dec 04, 2005 7:27 am

lol

now if the braves would be kind enough to send a little something to the rays for lugo

dbdynsty25 · Post by **dbdynsty25** » Sun Dec 04, 2005 2:21 pm

CincyKid wrote:lol

now if the braves would be kind enough to send a little something to the rays for lugo

It'll likely be one of their young pitchers that will turn to s*** after he gets to the Rays. Can you say Jorge Sosa this year? The Rays give up on him...and he's probably second in the Braves MVP voting last year. LOL...

jLp vAkEr0 · Post by **jLp vAkEr0** » Sun Dec 04, 2005 4:38 pm

Don't really care what the Dodgers payed.

This just weakens the Braves a bit more.

I'm all for that.

dbdynsty25 · Post by **dbdynsty25** » Sun Dec 04, 2005 4:38 pm

Keep talking. The Braves like it that way.

jLp vAkEr0 · Post by **jLp vAkEr0** » Sun Dec 04, 2005 5:21 pm

dbdynsty25 wrote:Keep talking. The Braves like it that way

How do they like it?

I'm just stating the obvious man. This does weaken the Braves on both sides, defense up the middle and at the top of the order. It that's what you mean by "talking" then too bad.

I'm pretty sure the Braves would find a way to get another SS, but I don't see a better one on the market right now.

dbdynsty25 · Post by **dbdynsty25** » Sun Dec 04, 2005 5:33 pm

jLp vAkEr0 wrote:
dbdynsty25 wrote:Keep talking. The Braves like it that way
How do they like it?

I'm just stating the obvious man. This does weaken the Braves on both sides, defense up the middle and at the top of the order. It that's what you mean by "talking" then too bad.

I'm pretty sure the Braves would find a way to get another SS, but I don't see a better one on the market right now.

There aren't any better SS on the market right now...but the Braves like it when people doubt them each and every year. It'll make it that much sweeter when the raise banner #15 next fall.

CincyKid · Post by **CincyKid** » Sun Dec 04, 2005 7:30 pm

dbdynsty25 wrote:
CincyKid wrote:lol

now if the braves would be kind enough to send a little something to the rays for lugo
It'll likely be one of their young pitchers that will turn to s*** after he gets to the Rays. Can you say Jorge Sosa this year? The Rays give up on him...and he's probably second in the Braves MVP voting last year. LOL...

considering you had leo mazzone that doesnt suprise me

keep in mind he was here under namoli,lamar era notorious for holding down the younger players as to not reach arbirtration and have to spend a buck or two on anyone....ran lou off for gods sakes and they felt they neded a makeshift thirdbaseman badly enough to throw him away fortunatley they were half right they have plenty of talent but they reacted to hastely and gave him away for next to nothing based on his potential...

he had electric stuff while he was here but there was no where to put him at that time and he was extremely inconsistant which is where leo was needed he now also pitches in a pitcher friendly park to one less batter in the lineup with a much better defensive team period

scary enough his actual k and walk rates may have been better the year before down here

either way alex gonzalez was decent every teams lets a few slip away (boston more than others) so maybe it was karma for kazmir

feel free to send those prospects....

to one of the most loaded young teams in baseball with kazmir,crawford,gomes,rocco,cantu then delmon young,upton ready to roll this season and still chad orvella,wes bankston,elijah dukes,jason hamel,jeff neihman etc etc on the farm not to mention huff,gathwright and baez to spare if anyone makes the right offer....with a entirely new front office on down to the clubhouse running operations on and off the field with plenty of money to spend by 2007 and make there move

should be a bright future and a fun team to watch to say the least cant wait

dbdynsty25 · Post by **dbdynsty25** » Sun Dec 04, 2005 7:45 pm

Well the 15 rookies that the Braves rolled out there last year prove that they should be around for a few years to come as well...nothing like restocking on the fly from the farm system.

They started calling Sosa houdini...dude walked everyone, but always ended up getting out of the jam. It was freakin' amazing.

jLp vAkEr0 · Post by **jLp vAkEr0** » Sun Dec 04, 2005 8:31 pm

Marlin's firesale in full effect.

Mets get Lo Duca for a couple of minor leaguers.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2247973