Frank Frigo and Chuck Bower, champion backgammon players and developers of the ZEUS computer program, have huddled with N.F.L. executives over the years, including with Bill Belichick. They can simulate hundreds of thousands of N.F.L. outcomes in seconds, and their program is customizable to account for the strengths and weaknesses of the offensive and defensive units of each team.
Frigo criticized a key Belichick decision last November in a loss at Indianapolis.
This morning, a little over a year later, Frigo said Belichick was being unjustly castigated. He sent this analysis via e-mail:
A very interesting and controversial decision with the Patriots last night. I read the Advanced NFL Stats analysis and concur with Brian Burke’s general framing of the problem and his support of Belichick. Here are three ways ZEUS breaks down the problem. In each scenario, an extended simulation is performed beginning with the exact circumstance on 4th-and-2 and finishing at the conclusion of the game.
Scenario 1: The custom case for the specific offensive and defensive features of the Colts and the Patriots.
Going for it: 77.3% (Probability of Winning for the Patriots)
Punting: 75.7%
Scenario 2: The case for two N.F.L. average and equal teams in every offensive and defensive category:
Going for it: 78.6% (Probability of Winning for the Patriots)
Punting: 76.4%
Scenario 3: The break-even point on the decision occurs when the team with the ball is about 5 percent weaker than N.F.L. average on offense and 5 percent better than N.F.L. average on defense, while the opposing team is 5 percent better than N.F.L. average on defense and 5 percent worse than average on offense.
The results of Scenarios #1 and #2 clearly point in favor of Belichick’s decision, although not by nearly as wide a margin as we might have expected. Additionally, the analysis in Scenario #3 really cements the case for “going for it.” Applying this benchmark and comparing it with the far different characteristics of the Patriots and the Colts makes the call all the more clear.
XBL Gamertag: RobVarak
"Ok I'm an elitist, but I have a healthy respect for people who don't measure up." --Aaron Sorkin
I love all the data. Seriously, enlightening for sure. Perhaps the Madden "cheesers" that i have hated my whole life aren't cheesers at all, but rather are just playing the percentages.
And similarly, why do any teams punt the ball away ever when it's 4 and 2 or less? Apparently going for it anywhere on the field is better than giving the ball to the opponent.
I'm not a math guy, but i do know that 70 yards is 42 more yards than 28 yards and the % of Manning scoring in 2:00 from the Patriots 30 is double (using the calculator Jared sent) the likelihood of them scoring from their own 30. Those are the only odds i need to know.
Oh, and if Belichick really had all of the numbers we are throwing out rattling around in that head of his during the timeout then the man is more of a mad genius than i give him credit for. 31 out of 32 NFL coaches punt that ball in that situation.
I agree with whoever said NE should have lets the Colts score ASAP once they failed on 4th down, even if they had to pick up a Colts player and carry him & the ball into the end zone.
Even if Brady only had a minute and no timeouts starting from his own 20, I like their chances of getting in FG range.
There are a million things wrong with the call, many of which haven't yet been addressed:
For starters; if you're going to go for it on 4th and 2 with the game on the line and NO timeouts, run a play that guarantees the yardage and recognize THAT YOU HAVE NO OPTION TO CHALLENGE THE PLAY!!! How the Patriots took an unnecessary TO at the start of the possession that cost them their ability to challenge the spot is beyond me. Either way, if you know you can't challenge you have to run a DOUBTLESS play (not one that just gets to the line) AND you have to calculate the lack of a challenge into whether you go for it at all!
Second, I don't think you tell the Defense to lay down, but when the Colts break a run you DON'T TACKLE THEM ON THE 1 YARD LINE; that's practically THROWING THE GAME!!! You let him score and leave yourself a minute to get down field.
Ugh, what a loss.
Sport73
"Can't we all just get along? I'll turn this car around RIGHT now!"
Sport73 wrote:Second, I don't think you tell the Defense to lay down, but when the Colts break a run you DON'T TACKLE THEM ON THE 1 YARD LINE; that's practically THROWING THE GAME!!! You let him score and leave yourself a minute to get down field.
My biggest problem with the call is that Hoodie is supposed to be a defensive genius. In the past he had no trouble giving you the ball and stopping your best guys.
He made the best offenses look bad, don't mean to bring up XXXIV. I think the Patriots are not what they used to be and have lost a lot in letting Pioli leave to KC. The team is not the same and doesn't have the "system players" Pioli found to plug in to replace at will depending on the situation.
This is so uncharacteristic of Hoodie. I call it desperation as his defenses in the past would have had little to no trouble shutting down an offense like the Colts.
Well the Patriots are going to win with their offense, not defense. They're hoping their young players mature, so they may not re-sign Wilfork and they already got rid of Seymour.
But there were some other pretty good games yesterday. Cincy goes blow for blow against Pittsburgh and comes out on top and how about them Cowboys?
Looks like HFA is going to go to teams playing indoors. Otherwise, the weather won't work for these high-flying teams.
Will, thanks for the new sig, bro. Love that line.
You welcomed!
Seriously, my coworker and I are still fuming over this call. If Hoodie was going to go for it on 4th down anyway, why not just run the ball on 3rd down and maybe make it closer? If you can't get 2 yards in 2 tries against any team, you don't deserve to win.
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Gamertag: The Praxis
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RallyMonkey wrote:
And similarly, why do any teams punt the ball away ever when it's 4 and 2 or less? Apparently going for it anywhere on the field is better than giving the ball to the opponent.
Actually, that is the gist of my original post. This is an extreme case, but every single week there are several ridiculous punts in situations where coaches should absolutely go for it. The only reason they don't is that the culture of coaching and their aversion to potential fan/media blowback.
XBL Gamertag: RobVarak
"Ok I'm an elitist, but I have a healthy respect for people who don't measure up." --Aaron Sorkin
The Bengals have impressed me by sweeping Pittsburgh and Baltimore. If the Benson injury isn't too serious, they look like a tough team to face. Stingy defense, and a solid offense that can control the tempo of the game. They could surprise someone in the playoffs.
Brando70 wrote:The Bengals have impressed me by sweeping Pittsburgh and Baltimore. If the Benson injury isn't too serious, they look like a tough team to face. Stingy defense, and a solid offense that can control the tempo of the game. They could surprise someone in the playoffs.
I hope they punch Indy in the mouth.
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dbdynsty25 wrote:I thought the Bills were gonna let Jauron finish the year. Guess not. Fired.
Not that surprised, but a little surprised that he's the first this season. Maybe if he'd beaten the s*** out of his wife and threatened to kill his assistant coaches, he'd still be employed.
That would rule out any candidate who is actually sober or non-drugged enough to find their way to Oakland for the interview. Maybe they should do it as a reality show, get some random online Madden cheeser to do it for real.
As for Jauron, I'd be interested why you would sack him now. No one is going to want the job unless they think it's a CV builder, because interims rarely get appointed and the current squad is rubbish anyway. Why not let Jauron get through and then bin him - it's not like the Bills are in a playoff run or something.
"The players come from all over the world, the money from deep underneath the Persian Gulf, but, as another, older City poster campaign put it, this is their city. They may now exist in the global spotlight, but they intend to keep it that way."
Someone noted that the Raiders have committed tens of millions in guaranteed money to a handful of players but have gone cheap for head coaches.
And there are pay disputes with several of them. Picking players is just the first step. Coaches who motivate and teach and devise schemes to make the best use of talents are necessary as well.
If it was just about picking players, Snyder might be more successful now. Or Jones might never have hired Parcells.
dbdynsty25 wrote:I thought the Bills were gonna let Jauron finish the year. Guess not. Fired.
The timing is odd. My guess is that Ralph Wilson snapped or choked on his dentures when Tennessee lit up the Bills for 24 points -- 14 on interception returns -- in the fourth quarter Sunday.
Still, this move doesn't address the Bills' main problem. Ralph Wilson refuses to pay big money to coaches, so the Bills always are stuck with retreads like Jauron or unproven assistants like Mularkey or Williams. Plus Ralph doesn't like the idea of a GM/coach, so that rules out someone who wants total control like Holmgren.
Unless Ralph opens the wallet and/or relinquishes some control, the Bills will stay on the treadmill of mediocrity. I don't think they're lucky enough to hire a hot assistant like a Sean Payton.
A functional NFL quarterback would be nice, too.
Take care,
PK
"You know why I love boxers? I love them because they face fear. And they face it alone." - Nick Charles
"First on the throttle, last on the brakes." - @MotoGP Twitter signature
dbdynsty25 wrote:Dolphins season...OVER. F*cking Ronnie Brown.
Gotta throw two of your old quotes back atcha.
dbdynsty25 wrote:You've got zero confidence in your team man. The team will be fine and we'll be competitive. They will not get blown out tonight. Keep your head up. Dolphins by 4.
And after the first drive you'll be saying this:
dbdynsty25 wrote:It's a good thing I have confidence in the Phins! Thing of beauty that drive.
The Phins have good backs: Hilliard, Polite and Ricky. Now we'll get to see a full dose of Pat White, this is time to shine.
Love that line. 
