NFL Season 2009

XXXIV · Post by **XXXIV** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 5:21 pm

Brando70 wrote:Rams apparently still following the Martz Time Management System for the two-minute drill. I couldn't believe they threw a screen pass with less than a minute left and no time outs.

They are clock management challenged.

That whole drive was silly. They had over 2 minutes to go 80. Why was Bulger dumping the ball off short in the middle of the field? Play after play.

If I wasnt expecting a blowout Id be much more pissed than I am.

MizzouRah · Post by **MizzouRah** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 10:19 pm

I listened to some of it between soccer games today.. they do sound like they are getting better.. there is hope!

Post by **ScoopBrady** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 12:43 am

What a f***in game! I don't know what Billy boy was thinking. I'm just stunned.

Rodster · Post by **Rodster** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 12:49 am

What the hell was hoody thinking.

The last time I saw that was playing a cheeser in Madden. The Patriots players looked pissed. Good news for the Dolphins as they are now in second place with the Jets loss today.

wco81 · Post by **wco81** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 1:11 am

Barry Switzer did that when he was coaching the Cowboys at a game in Philly.

It was 4th and short and the run was stuffed.

But they seem to play scared that possession. If you're in shotgun, throw it down field, not a short pattern like that on a well-defended play.

Of course, the high-percentage play would have been to run the clock down and punt it. Only one run that whole series.

dbdynsty25 · Post by **dbdynsty25** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 2:33 am

I don't mind them going for it...Manning is gonna score the winning TD either way...it doesn't matter to him if it's 70 yards or 30.

Brando70 · Post by **Brando70** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 10:16 am

Terrible call by the Belichick 3000. It's true the Colts would have had time to drive either way, but handing the ball over at the 30 takes the clock out of the equation for Indy. Way too risky to do that from that field position, with the amount of time left, and with a six-point lead.

RobVarak · Post by **RobVarak** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 11:30 am

I think in about 98% of the cases, it was the wrong call. On that field, against Manning who had absolutely shredded a mediocre Pats D for the four TD's already, I think it was a reasonable choice.

At the end of the day there are two equations at work for Big Bad Bill. First, do you trust your lousy defense to stop Manning from going 80 more than you trust your offense to get the 2 yards? Secondly, who would you rather rest your fate on? Brady, the OL, Faulk, Moss etc., or the spare parts on the defense?

I've said for years that there are at least 30% too many punts in the NFL, and almost all of them are due to the fact that head coaches are afraid of the media and fan blowback if they go against "the book." And here's a graphic demonstration of what they are trying to avoid.

It goes against everything your dad and Pee Wee and H.S. coaches taught you, everything that every TV analyst and retired moron has ever said...and IMO that's reason enough to question the accuracy of "the book." LOL

RallyMonkey · Post by **RallyMonkey** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 11:32 am

I don't mind them going for it...Manning is gonna score the winning TD either way...it doesn't matter to him if it's 70 yards or 30.

Don't take this personally but that's the dumbest thing i've ever seen written. (And understand i'm a Pats season ticket holder and have had zero sleep due to this debacle so i'm a little on edge this morning)

5 of the last 7 Colts possessions prior to the final score resulted in either a punt or an INT. No timeouts and 70+ yards to go with the middle of the field (meaning the Colts bread and butter slants) nearly have to be taken out of the playbook to a degree. Bottom line, you don't trust your defense to stop them (even though they proved they could) over 70 yards but you do with under 30? Okay, okay, big Bill thought his offense could get him two yards....then RUN A F***ING PLAY THAT GIVES YOU TWO YARDS. Your play call is Faulk just over the first down marker so that you're relying on a spot even IF you make the catch there.

Manning is unbelievable and i give the guy credit for being money, but this decision is indefenseable. As a coach the bigger picture needs to be on the forefront of your mind and Belichick didn't think this one through. He got shortsighted and it cost them.

Oh, and when it failed, what he should have done is simply let the Colts score on the very next play giving Brady 1:40 seconds to drive down for the FG that could have won the game. If you're basically saying you don't trust the defense anyway, then really hammer the point home by laying down, giving up the lead, and hoping your offense can drive down for the win.

In the immortal words of Clark W. Griswold in Christmas Vacation, i say to coach BB: I want to look him straight in the eye and I want to tell him what a cheap, lying, no-good, rotten, fore-fleshing, low-life, snake-licking, dirt-eating, inbred, overstuffed, ignorant, blood-sucking, dog-kissing, brainless, dickless, hopeless, heartless, fat-a**, bug-eyed, stiff-legged, spotty-lipped, worm-headed sack of monkey sh** he is. Hallelujah. Holy sh**. Where's the Tylenol?

XXXIV · Post by **XXXIV** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 11:50 am

I had no problem with the Patriots strategy...

1) I wanted them to lose

2) I agree with Bill that his defense had no chance in hell of stopping the Colts from anywhere on the field cause he and they both suck. So you might as well try and win it there.

3)I am enjoying the bashing the smug sack of cheating s*** is getting.

GTHobbes · Post by **GTHobbes** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 11:58 am

I think he's an idiot for going for it, but don't forget, the Patriots were up by 17 points in the 4th quarter, so it's not exactly like Manning was moving up and down the field all night at will. And on the drive before, he needed a cheap pass interference call of 35+ yards to get them in position for the quick score. Prior to that play, Manning was doing nothing but dinking and dunking the ball for 8 to 10 yards a pop. I don't think he would've had time to do that on the final drive, if it had started from their 25 instead of the Patriots 28.

JackB1 · Post by **JackB1** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 12:03 pm

dbdynsty25 wrote:I don't mind them going for it...Manning is gonna score the winning TD either way...it doesn't matter to him if it's 70 yards or 30.

You're kidding right? It's a HUGE difference and changes all the playcalling. If NE punts from their own 20, they could have possibly pinned Indy deep in their own zone. From the other 20, Manning could take for shots into the endzone with passes.

That was the WORST coaching call I have ever seen in the NFL.....bar none. You have to play the percentages there and punt. If your D can't keep the other team out of the end zone with a full field in front of them, then they don't deserve to win. Their coach took this chance away from them.

pk500 · Post by **pk500** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 12:35 pm

ScoopBrady wrote:What a f***in game! I don't know what Billy boy was thinking. I'm just stunned.

That was hubris, plain and simple. Nice to see it shoved up Hoody's ass.

Take care,
PK

RallyMonkey · Post by **RallyMonkey** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 12:40 pm

If your D can't keep the other team out of the end zone with a full field in front of them, then they don't deserve to win.

And what gets lost in all this is the fact that had they punted and the Colts score, the Defense is pissed at themselves, they know they have to work harder, and BB can tear them a new one for an entire week. This decision basically exonerates the D as they now can say 1) he didn't believe in us enough to punt the ball and 2) puts the onus on the bad decision and the coach rather than themselves as they now have an out of "hell, Manning only had to go 29 yards".

The other problem i have overall was why the Pats stopped pressuring Manning. He was rattled for a half+ and for some reason they called off the dogs. Just poor decisions all across the board late in that game last night.

And oh Maroney.....oh my god Maroney. If only i were an advocate for human on human violence.

dbdynsty25 · Post by **dbdynsty25** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 1:13 pm

RallyMonkey wrote:
I don't mind them going for it...Manning is gonna score the winning TD either way...it doesn't matter to him if it's 70 yards or 30.
Don't take this personally but that's the dumbest thing i've ever seen written. (And understand i'm a Pats season ticket holder and have had zero sleep due to this debacle so i'm a little on edge this morning)

You do realize I'm a Dolphins fan right? I LOVE when Belichick makes stupid calls. Would I want my team doing it? F*CK no.

RallyMonkey · Post by **RallyMonkey** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 1:28 pm

You do realize I'm a Dolphins fan right? I LOVE when Belichick makes stupid calls. Would I want my team doing it? F*CK no.

I am aware and i can't blame you and the rest of the world for loving this today. And on a side note, congrats to your squad for that riveting FG fest against the Bucs yesterday.

I was forced to tune in thanks to Dan Carpenter being used as my bye week replacement in fantasy which worked out....so i got that goin' for me...which is nice.

Post by **Jared** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 1:28 pm

Belicheck made the right call. It gives the Patriots about a 9% greater chance to win the game than punting. Basically they've got a 60% chance to convert on 4th and 2, and about a 50% chance of stopping Indianapolis from the NE 30...that comes out to about an 80% chance to win. If they punt, Indianapolis ends on their own 30, with (at that time and distance) about a 30% chance to win (or a 70% chance for a New England win). In that situation, you clearly go for it. (See below for a more detailed explanation.)

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11 ... colts.html

dbdynsty25 · Post by **dbdynsty25** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 1:47 pm

RallyMonkey wrote:
You do realize I'm a Dolphins fan right? I LOVE when Belichick makes stupid calls. Would I want my team doing it? F*CK no.
I am aware and i can't blame you and the rest of the world for loving this today. And on a side note, congrats to your squad for that riveting FG fest against the Bucs yesterday. I was forced to tune in thanks to Dan Carpenter being used as my bye week replacement in fantasy which worked out....so i got that goin' for me...which is nice.

No one said the Dolphins were gonna blow people out...especially losing Ronnie in the 3rd. End of the day, a W is a W.

RallyMonkey · Post by **RallyMonkey** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 2:02 pm

No one said the Dolphins were gonna blow people out...especially losing Ronnie in the 3rd. End of the day, a W is a W

Yup. And an L is an L.......fu**ing Belichick!!

RallyMonkey · Post by **RallyMonkey** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 2:13 pm

Belicheck made the right call. It gives the Patriots about a 9% greater chance to win the game than punting. Basically they've got a 60% chance to convert on 4th and 2, and about a 50% chance of stopping Indianapolis from the NE 30...that comes out to about an 80% chance to win. If they punt, Indianapolis ends on their own 30, with (at that time and distance) about a 30% chance to win (or a 70% chance for a New England win). In that situation, you clearly go for it. (See below for a more detailed explanation.)

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11 ... colts.html[/url]

Hang on. 30% of the time with under 2:00 to play and one time out teams score a TD from their own 34 yard line? There is zero % chance that that information is accurate. Maybe 30% of the time a team starts a drive from their own 34 they score, but not with one time out and under 2:00 to play. Nice breakdown in theory, but no way this is accurate based on the game situation at hand.

Feanor · Post by **Feanor** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 2:17 pm

Jared wrote:Belicheck made the right call. It gives the Patriots about a 9% greater chance to win the game than punting. Basically they've got a 60% chance to convert on 4th and 2, and about a 50% chance of stopping Indianapolis from the NE 30...that comes out to about an 80% chance to win. If they punt, Indianapolis ends on their own 30, with (at that time and distance) about a 30% chance to win (or a 70% chance for a New England win). In that situation, you clearly go for it. (See below for a more detailed explanation.)

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11 ... colts.html[/url]

Using average stats like that doesn't really work. Everyone watching that game knew the chance of Indy scoring a TD from the Pats 28 yard line with 2 minutes left was close to 100%, not the 53% chance an average team would have had.

Billy blew it.

WillHunting · Post by **WillHunting** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 2:30 pm

Agreed, all that stats is BS. You don't give Manning a short field like that. Too risky and now even IF the Pats make the playoffs (their schedule is not a cakewalk), they will have to go through Indy at Indy (assuming they even make it that far).

JRod · Post by **JRod** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 2:44 pm

WillHunting wrote:Agreed, all that stats is BS. You don't give Manning a short field like that. Too risky and now even IF the Pats make the playoffs (their schedule is not a cakewalk), they will have to go through Indy at Indy (assuming they even make it that far).

Not only was it a short field but it was a short field with about 2 mins. Whereas he might have only had 30 seconds to make a TD if he had to drive down the ball.

All BB was doing was giving Indy time and in the NFL, stats are not, that will kill you.

If he made it, he probably would have been called a genius again. But it doesn't matter, he didn't make it and it gave the Colts the ball with time and 30 yards to go. He probably wishes Josh McDaniels was back with the Pats now.

WillHunting · Post by **WillHunting** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 2:51 pm

JRod wrote: If he made it, he probably would have been called a genius again. But it doesn't matter, he didn't make it and it gave the Colts the ball with time and 30 yards to go. He probably wishes Josh McDaniels was back with the Pats now.

Even if they had made it, I wouldn't call it genius. Ballsy maybe. I am a Pats fan and so sick of Belichick being hailed as the next Einstein. He was outcoached in the Superbowl against the Giants, and now, Manning is getting in his head to make dumb decisions (don't forget burning a timeout too right before that play). He also lost the AFC game against the Colts when they were up big at the half a few years ago. Stop this nonsense talk about genius and win these big games. Beating up on Tennessee/Tampa Bay is no genius when you have Brady and Moss.

Post by **Jared** » Mon Nov 16, 2009 2:55 pm

RallyMonkey wrote:Hang on. 30% of the time with under 2:00 to play and one time out teams score a TD from their own 34 yard line? There is zero % chance that that information is accurate. Maybe 30% of the time a team starts a drive from their own 34 they score, but not with one time out and under 2:00 to play. Nice breakdown in theory, but no way this is accurate based on the game situation at hand.

This does take into account field position and time during the game, using historical NFL data from the last 10 years. It doesn't take time outs into account. See here for the calculator:

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/winprobcalc1.php

Feanor, I agree that average stats aren't the best. However, my guess is that with Manning at quarterback, the odds of getting a touchdown from their own 30 or the NE 30 increases a lot. The main thing is, is there a 100% chance of Manning scoring from the NE 30, and a small chance of Manning scoring from the Indy 30? Probably not...remember that in the 4th quarter alone, Manning had two drives of about 80 yards that took two minutes where he used no timeouts. The TD probability doesn't decrease enough by pushing back Indy 40 yards to make the punt the right call. If anything, Manning's torching of NE's defense makes going for it even a better call.