OT - most athletes really are morons

Brando70 · Post by **Brando70** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 11:13 am

First of all, the notion of "overpaying" is irrelevant in baseball. It's not like the NFL or NBA where a bad contract can ensnare a franchise for years. If you can spend it, then spend it. In the FA maket, Beltran is considered the top prize. The Mets grabbed the best FA, and also a great pitcher who still probably has at least two good years left.

Second, this is a franchise that needs to upstage its crosstown rivals. No one in NYC was going to get excited about JD Drew. They may have comparable numbers, but Beltran stock has been soaring. This is the kind of signing that can put butts in seats and make the Mets look like a franchise that means business.

As for choosing Houston or NY, the Astros may be a better club, but NYC is NYC. I have lived a lot of places in my lifetime, and New York was hands down the most exciting. Give me $100 million and a choice between Texas and the Big Apple, and I'm in a Mets uniform every time.

fatheadX · Post by **fatheadX** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 11:38 am

Plus, Houston is getting old and they've shown signs of pulling back the reins on spending a bit. They will have to retool shortly when the killer B's start retiring. He may have been concerned of being the only highly paid player on the team in 3 or 4 years. I'm reaching a little.

People criticize the Mets because their formula of taking a mediocre team and adding some big names has rarely worked in the MLB. I agree that at least this guy isn't in the twilight of his career, which is better than what the Mets usually do.

RobVarak · Post by **RobVarak** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 11:52 am

Brando70 wrote:First of all, the notion of "overpaying" is irrelevant in baseball. It's not like the NFL or NBA where a bad contract can ensnare a franchise for years.

I know what you're trying to say, Brando, but that's not exactly true. Look at the Helton contract in Colorado, for instance. True, there's no salary cap to make the penalty direct, but you can really hamstring your organization by having to pay a player that you can't really trade and who isn't producing in line with his salary.

The real problem though is that baseball owners don't appreciate the idea of sunk costs. "Well, we're paying him $15m to play 2b, so damnit, we're going to play him."

But your larger point is right. The Mets may have payed more than the market really dictated he's worth, but it's not like they aren't able to go spend more if they want to.

FWIW, this was a fait accompli the minute Beltran hit .900 or whatever in the post-season. The guy was going to be "overpaid" no matter what at that point

spooky157 · Post by **spooky157** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 11:58 am

The Mets launching their own television network in 2006 might have something to do with their big name signings. They'll need some star power then.

ESPN put up a graphic last night comparing Beltran's numbers to Bobby Bonilla's heading into their first year with the Mets. Eerily similar.....

Kazuya · Post by **Kazuya** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 12:42 pm

jLp vAkEr0 wrote:
kaz:

I have no need to discuss any topic with you. I posted an article were it explained how various teams are interested in Nene and where willing to give up goods for him(ex: Bucks: Michael Redd).

You mean you haven't the ability. And unfortunately, you didn't read your own article. The only reason the Bucks would even think about trading Michael Redd is financial. Not to mention, it didn't happen and it ain't gonna. Michael Redd for Nene is a joke.

jLp vAkEr0 wrote:Look at his last 5 games http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/p ... atsId=3605

See a trend? Give him minutes and he can produce. NBA teams see that, you don't. is he Amare? God no! But he has talent, and he is in no way close to being a bust.

I see a trend that he had 8 and 10 points against teams with a legitimate big man (Yao and Duncan) while putting up better numbers against lesser teams. I see that his team is 1-4 during that stretch. I see that his team is still outscored while he is on the floor (-4.8 ), because he doesn't do anything to make his teammates better. And I see that for the *entire* season, he's still stuck on 9 and 6. Any stiff can score given enough shots and minutes. When you give up as much or more than you produce, you're a bust. Don't take it so personal. I promise, I love Carlos Arroyo's game.

bkrich83 · Post by **bkrich83** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 12:42 pm

jLp vAkEr0 wrote: BK:

Did any of those 5 experts proposed anything that the Mets should have done? You know, like letting him walk?

No, their comments weren't dircted to the Mets. Their comment was that the asking price was too high for a .285 lifetime hitter that has hit 30+ HR's once in his career. His lifetime OBP is like .353, and he did only hit .267 last year.

Their point wasn' that the Mets overpaid, as this was before he was signed, but that, if you really crunch the numbers, the asking price for what Beltran brings to the table was simply too high, and their were other players out there who can put up similiar or equal numbers, who can be had for less money. Bobby Abreau who has a lifetime numbers that are better than Beltran, and who outperfomed Beltran at the plate in most categories last year. Beltran is a CF, and that does help however.

Kazuya · Post by **Kazuya** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 12:49 pm

RobVarak wrote:
Brando70 wrote:First of all, the notion of "overpaying" is irrelevant in baseball. It's not like the NFL or NBA where a bad contract can ensnare a franchise for years.
I know what you're trying to say, Brando, but that's not exactly true. Look at the Helton contract in Colorado, for instance. True, there's no salary cap to make the penalty direct, but you can really hamstring your organization by having to pay a player that you can't really trade and who isn't producing in line with his salary.

Whoa, wait a minute. You're going to have to explain that one. Todd Helton is one of the best hitters in the history of baseball, and has won 3 of the last 4 Gold Gloves. How much do you think he's worth?

dbdynsty25 · Post by **dbdynsty25** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 12:58 pm

I hope Brando was talking about Charles Johnson, not Helton.

jLp vAkEr0 · Post by **jLp vAkEr0** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 12:58 pm

Kazuya wrote: I promise, I love Carlos Arroyo's game.

Me too, too bad he can't shutup when he needs too. Now he's in Sloan's doghouse and I don't see him out of it in a while.

fatheadX · Post by **fatheadX** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 12:59 pm

Colorado signed him to a long-term deal when they still thought they were a big market team. Now they are crying poor and they do point to the Helton contract as a big part of their problems (right or wrong).

Watching him every day, he is a truly great player and I'm pretty sure playing in Coors Field will kill his chances to win an MVP or go to the Hall of Fame. Shame, really, because he does so much to help his team win.

The Rockies are a fascinating study in the fall of a franchise. Fans were so hungry for baseball, they filled the stadium every night (50K+ seats). The club had money, so they paid big bucks to put a winner on the field but couldn't win. Fans stopped coming out, now club has no money. How will they turn this around? People don't even talk about the Rockies around here anymore.

Kazuya · Post by **Kazuya** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 1:07 pm

sf_z wrote:Helton is still a fine hitter but he's a first baseman with a bad back. His current contract runs through 2011 with a team option in 2012. It was a whopper of a contract for nine years and $141.5 million

2001: $5.0M
2002: $10.6M
2003: $10.6M
2004: $11.6M
2005: $12.6M
2006: $16.6M
2007: $16.6M
2008: $16.6M
2009: $16.6M
2010: $16.6M
2011: $19.1M
2012: Team option $23.0M or $4.6M buyout

That takes him to the age of 38. He'll still be able to hit it his back doesn't let him down. His power numbers have dipped since his near triple crown year and may continue to decline w/ age and injury and 1B is the least valuable defensive position.

$17M is different to the Mets and the Rockies. The Mets are a big market team with big market revenues, the Rockies aren't. I don't think a mid-market team can tie up 20% of their payroll in a single player, no matter how sweet his swing is.

Whether his contract is bad or not, I can't say. Whether he's played up to his contract or not is a no-brainer. So far he's been a bargain by any standard, and should be untill 2006. If he continues his current pace, he is definitely worth $16.6 million. If he falls off, maybe not.

wco81 · Post by **wco81** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 1:18 pm

Aren't Helton's numbers attributable to Coors?

What are his numbers on the road?

Colorado just hasn't been able to sustain its usual early season pace. They've had problems on the road matching the offensive output they have at home if I'm not mistaken.

Often, when teams go to Coors for a 4 game series, their bullpen get used up in the first two games. I can imagine what it's like for a staff to deal with that all season.

The humidor didn't work so maybe they need to use Nerf balls.

fatheadX · Post by **fatheadX** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 1:23 pm

http://bigleaguers.yahoo.com/mlbpa/play ... pe=Batting

Definitely a big Coors Field effect, no question.

pk500 · Post by **pk500** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 1:23 pm

FYI:

Helton's career numbers through the end of the 2004 season, home and road:

AVG OBP SLG OPS
Todd Helton Home .377 .467 .703 1.170
Todd Helton Road .298 .394 .526 .920

Take care,
PK

Dave · Post by **Dave** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 1:34 pm

A bad contract in baseball is poison for small and mid-market teams. Look at the Twins and Joe Mays. They signed him to a pretty big deal for the time (and for their standards) after only one good year, then he went in the tank and then was injured. Here's (I think) $6MM of a $50MM payroll for the last three years for a bad pitcher. You think they wouldn't like to have that money back so they can keep Eric Milton last year (a legit #3 to throw at the Yankees) or put that towards a deal for Johan Santana?

If Beltran tanks, he'll take the Mets with him since he's the key to their future success, unless Piazza starts turning back time.

RobVarak · Post by **RobVarak** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 2:43 pm

Kazuya wrote:
Whoa, wait a minute. You're going to have to explain that one. Todd Helton is one of the best hitters in the history of baseball, and has won 3 of the last 4 Gold Gloves. How much do you think he's worth?

Probably the $5m they're paying him this year. Maybe the $5m they'll pay him next year. But he sure as hell won't be worth the $5m they're paying him when he's 34, 35 and 36 LOL He's among the league's best hitters, but adjusting his numbers for park-factor levels things out a lot.

Signing 27-year-old players with bad backs who play an easily replaceable position in a park that inflates offensive numbers on a historic scale is not exactly quality decision-making IMO.

All they did was make the guy untradeable and guaranty him payment during the days when he should be DHing in Tampa.

Jayhawker · Post by **Jayhawker** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 3:00 pm

dbdynsty25 wrote: I may not know the most about baseball, but after watching Beltran play for the past 3 or 4 years...I can recognize some ridiculous talent. After watching nearly every Braves game, I can say Drew is a good ballplayer, but he's not really in Beltrans league. By me saying Beltran is a much better ballplayer...I'm using a complicated formula that only the likes of myself understand...COMMON SENSE.

You should really check out the bookMoneyball and you would shake that faulty line of reasoning quickly. Billy Beane has made a mockery of GMs that think exactly like that. The book is an easy, and fun read, as Michael Lewis paints a great picture of life behind the scenes in baseball, as he followed Billy Beane for a year.

As for Beltran, he's a great player, but was WAY overvalued. He really should have been valued much closer to Drew, plus he got two more years. That's just panic on the part of the Mets.

Brando70 · Post by **Brando70** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 3:13 pm

spooky157 wrote:The Mets launching their own television network in 2006 might have something to do with their big name signings. They'll need some star power then.

ESPN put up a graphic last night comparing Beltran's numbers to Bobby Bonilla's heading into their first year with the Mets. Eerily similar.....

The TV network may also drive their thinking in terms of revenue. Steinbrenner's TV deals are the reason he can spend so readily. The Mets may be thinking that revenue will allow them to pay for this contract.

And it's not that contracts can't be harmful in baseball, but you have a lot more flexibility in dealing with bad contracts in MLB. You're not against a hard cap. If you have the pockets, you can often spend your way out of a problem. Beltran may well being extremely overpriced for his abilities, but he's getting paid as much for his potential as past performance. With someone like Drew or other guys with similar numbers, you've probably have seen what you're going to get.

Would I have made that move? Probably not. Considering the money being thrown around, I'm glad the Cubs didn't put up that much dough. But from a marketing and fan standpoint, I think the Mets did what they needed to do.

dbdynsty25 · Post by **dbdynsty25** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 3:48 pm

Jayhawker wrote:You should really check out the bookMoneyball and you would shake that faulty line of reasoning quickly. Billy Beane has made a mockery of GMs that think exactly like that. The book is an easy, and fun read, as Michael Lewis paints a great picture of life behind the scenes in baseball, as he followed Billy Beane for a year.

Umm...how many Championships does Beane have?

Leebo33 · Post by **Leebo33** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 3:54 pm

dbdynsty25 wrote:
Jayhawker wrote:You should really check out the bookMoneyball and you would shake that faulty line of reasoning quickly. Billy Beane has made a mockery of GMs that think exactly like that. The book is an easy, and fun read, as Michael Lewis paints a great picture of life behind the scenes in baseball, as he followed Billy Beane for a year.
Umm...how many Championships does Beane have?

I agree. I liked the book Moneyball and it makes a lot of great points, but Beane is going to have to win without the "Big Three" or get to a World Series to prove it *really* works.

pk500 · Post by **pk500** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 3:58 pm

I'm pretty certain that Theo Epstein is a Beane disciple, and he did pretty well in his first two seasons as a major league GM.

Theo apparently plays a mean rock guitar, too:

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb ... &fext=.jsp

Take care,
PK

Leebo33 · Post by **Leebo33** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 4:05 pm

Epstein is good, but it's nice when you can sign a 37 year old pitcher to a multi year contract at $12M a year. I'm not sure that is within the spirit of moneyball.

RobVarak · Post by **RobVarak** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 4:13 pm

Leebo33 wrote:Epstein is good, but it's nice when you can sign a 37 year old pitcher to a multi year contract at $12M a year. I'm not sure that is within the spirit of moneyball.

Moneyball is about using objective metrics to the greatest extent possible in order to allow you to make better baseball decisions while also taking advantage of the fact that there are other teams out there wit a lot of $$$ who are NOT doing that.

It's not so much not having resources as it is maximizing the ones you have. Not Epstein's fault that John Henry is willing to spend more than some