Election Prediction Pool

pk500 · Post by **pk500** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 9:49 am

OK, boys, let's have an election prediction pool. List your winning candidate and how many electoral votes by which he wins.

No partisan comments. No bickering. And realize that your pick does NOT reflect who you want to win, rather who you think will win.

Anyone who types more than the candidate's name and margin of electoral votes by which he will win will be disqualified. The winner will receive some sort of racing swag that I have in my collection -- hat or shirt.

I'll think of something for a tie-breaker, if needed.

Let's end this acrimonious election season in the DSP Forum with a bit of fun, shall we?

Take care,
PK

pk500 · Post by **pk500** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 9:49 am

Bush, by 47 electoral votes.

Out,
PK

mixdj1 · Post by **mixdj1** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 10:01 am

Bush by 18.

mixdj1

webdanzer · Post by **webdanzer** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 10:11 am

Bush +10

If I win, I want a pic of PK petting a dog.

pk500 · Post by **pk500** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 10:32 am

webdanzer wrote:If I win, I want a pic of PK petting a dog.

That was so funny that I won't even disqualify you!

Take care,
PK

Parker · Post by **Parker** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 10:42 am

Kerry by 27

fsquid · Post by **fsquid** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 10:56 am

Bush by 23.

Bill_Abner · Post by **Bill_Abner** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 11:22 am

Trying to use history as my guide on this, I don't think it'll be as close as people think. I think this will be 1980 reborn. That election was "too close to call" going into the final week and Carter got thumped in the end. Kerry 311 Bush 227. Kerry by 84. It's just as easy for Bush to win by such a large margin. Either way I don't see it being "close" in terms of the EC. I think each BG state's vote will be very close, though.

Of the so called swing states, Kerry takes:
NH
WI
MN
MI
OH
PA
FL
IA
NM

Bush gets:
CO
NV
WV
MO

Badgun · Post by **Badgun** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 11:36 am

Bush by 36

Post by **Jared** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 11:41 am

Abner,

I was picking exactly what you had (311 to 227 Kerry). But I think Bush will get one of the three big swing states (my guess would be your home state).
So I'm going with your prediction, except Oho for Bush. 291 to 247.

Also, there are good interactive electoral maps if people want to make their own predictions:

http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/po ... LATOR.html

Outside of the big 3, these are the big states that'll if they go for one candidate or another, will likely be predictive.

Kerry is in trouble if:

Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa start going to Bush.

Bush is in trouble if:

Colorado, New Mexico, and (maybe) Virginia or Arizona are in play for Kerry.

fatheadX · Post by **fatheadX** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 11:43 am

Bush by 30.

krustylew · Post by **krustylew** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 11:53 am

Bush +4
I use the LA Times Vote Tracker, it plays "Hail to the Chief" when a candidate gets 270 electoral votes. Pretty cool.
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/el ... -utilities

Post by **ScoopBrady** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 12:02 pm

Bush by 36

tjung0831 · Post by **tjung0831** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 1:03 pm

Bill_Abner wrote:Trying to use history as my guide on this, I don't think it'll be as close as people think. I think this will be 1980 reborn. That election was "too close to call" going into the final week and Carter got thumped in the end. Kerry 311 Bush 227. Kerry by 84. It's just as easy for Bush to win by such a large margin. Either way I don't see it being "close" in terms of the EC. I think each BG state's vote will be very close, though.

Of the so called swing states, Kerry takes:
NH
WI
MN
MI
OH
PA
FL
IA
NM

Bush gets:
CO
NV
WV
MO

Missouri isn't a swing state...it's all George Bush.

Tim

tjung0831 · Post by **tjung0831** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 1:04 pm

Bush wins by 70 Electoral votes.

Tim

skidmark · Post by **skidmark** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 1:08 pm

Kerry by 14 - the skins always know

LAking · Post by **LAking** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 1:34 pm

krustylew wrote:Bush +4
I use the LA Times Vote Tracker, it plays "Hail to the Chief" when a candidate gets 270 electoral votes. Pretty cool.
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/el ... -utilities

The L.A. Times one is great because if you put the cursor over a state it shows the most recent poll results and it tells you who won that state in the past four elections.

Parker · Post by **Parker** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 1:38 pm

Since no one seems to be following the rules of this thread, I have to say I'm surprised at the number of people picking Bush, especially when I'm pretty sure many of you picked Kerry in the other poll for who you are voting for. Have some faith in your candidate! Kerry has never lost an election or any competition in dozens of chances, he is a good horse to have when things are tight. He knows how to win. In any case, it's not like Bush is clearly winning the electoral college. Going by the latest state polls, Kerry has a decent lead:

http://www.electoral-vote.com

And I seriously doubt Bush is going to win New Hampshire or Hawaii.

Also, historically, the true undecideds who wait until the last minute to choose generally go against the incumbent in a close election. This would not show up in polls.

If Kerry loses, I expect him to drop out of politics completely. He does not know how to handle losing.

dbdynsty25 · Post by **dbdynsty25** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 1:39 pm

I'll take Kerry by 7 and the under.

Leebo33 · Post by **Leebo33** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 1:46 pm

Bush by 10.

Parker · Post by **Parker** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 1:47 pm

Republicans better hope Fox News decided to stop polling more Republicans than Democrats, because Kerry is ahead by 2 pts (3 without Nader) in their poll just released:

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/110104_poll.pdf

This would support the trend I'm observing over the last few days where Kerry has gained some ground back in several of the battleground states. I wouldn't rule out Kerry winning the college without winning the popular vote.

pk500 · Post by **pk500** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 1:58 pm

OK -- last reminder. Any more posts with anything more than your pick and the number of votes, and you're out.

Just like with my kids, I'm not a New Age parent where I reason with the wee ones. One warning -- and then action is taken.

This is the final warning. Candidate, electoral votes. That's it. And if you've made your pick, then stuff the editorial comments and put them in another thread.

Out,
PK

GROGtheNailer · Post by **GROGtheNailer** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 1:58 pm

Bush by 22

pk500 · Post by **pk500** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 2:00 pm

Parker, you're out. That's two BS, non-selection, editorializing posts you've made since your original prediction. And just because you're out now doesn't give you license to post non-selection-related stuff at will. Shut the f*ck up and start your own election commentary thread.

Anyone else going to join Parker in the sin bin?

Out,
PK