OT: Elections/Politics thread, part 4

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Post by Jackdog »

JackB1 wrote: My only beef I still have with Obama is his penchant for sending more troops to Afghanistan. I would like to hear what the entire plan and or mission is for that country. We don't need to escalate another open ended quagmire, with no exit strategy. Justify the reason to escalate the war in Afghanistan and explain to me what we are trying to accomplish there, Obama. All he has said is we need "more troops" there. We have heard that one before.
To begin with we were fighting to oust the Taliban and find Mr Bin Laden Then we got distracted by Iraq, fumbled about what do with all this poppy growing, killed one too many poor Afghans accidentally, and allowed the Taliban to reassert themselves (partially) as 'defenders' of Afghanistan.

Now we 'cannot leave' because the elected but rather ineffectual and wildly corrupt Karzi government would probably collapse, leaving the poor Afghans back with the Taliban,except in the North where for ethnic reasons they would probably be effectively resisted. In other words it is all terribly complicated and I doubt there is anyone with any sense who imagines that they have a solution. Especially if you are an Afghan. That's my take.

Here's Obama's take. http://www.barackobama.com/2007/08/01/t ... to_win.php

Here is just a few tidbits. Please read his entire plan.
Because of a war in Iraq that should never have been authorized and should never have been waged, we are now less safe than we were before 9/11.

According to the National Intelligence Estimate, the threat to our homeland from al Qaeda is "persistent and evolving." Iraq is a training ground for terror, torn apart by civil war. Afghanistan is more violent than it has been since 2001. Al Qaeda has a sanctuary in Pakistan. Israel is besieged by emboldened enemies, talking openly of its destruction. Iran is now presenting the broadest strategic challenge to the United States in the Middle East in a generation. Groups affiliated with or inspired by al Qaeda operate worldwide. Six years after 9/11, we are again in the midst of a "summer of threat," with bin Ladin and many more terrorists determined to strike in the United States.
It is time to turn the page. When I am President, we will wage the war that has to be won, with a comprehensive strategy with five elements: getting out of Iraq and on to the right battlefield in Afghanistan and Pakistan; developing the capabilities and partnerships we need to take out the terrorists and the world's most deadly weapons; engaging the world to dry up support for terror and extremism; restoring our values; and securing a more resilient homeland.

The first step must be getting off the wrong battlefield in Iraq, and taking the fight to the terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
As President, I would make the hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. military aid to Pakistan conditional, and I would make our conditions clear: Pakistan must make substantial progress in closing down the training camps, evicting foreign fighters, and preventing the Taliban from using Pakistan as a staging area for attacks in Afghanistan.

I understand that President Musharraf has his own challenges. But let me make this clear. There are terrorists holed up in those mountains who murdered 3,000 Americans. They are plotting to strike again. It was a terrible mistake to fail to act when we had a chance to take out an al Qaeda leadership meeting in 2005. If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won't act, we will.

And Pakistan needs more than F-16s to combat extremism. As the Pakistani government increases investment in secular education to counter radical madrasas, my Administration will increase America's commitment. We must help Pakistan invest in the provinces along the Afghan border, so that the extremists' program of hate is met with one of hope. And we must not turn a blind eye to elections that are neither free nor fair -- our goal is not simply an ally in Pakistan, it is a democratic ally.

Beyond Pakistan, there is a core of terrorists -- probably in the tens of thousands -- who have made their choice to attack America. So the second step in my strategy will be to build our capacity and our partnerships to track down, capture or kill terrorists around the world, and to deny them the world's most dangerous weapons.

I will not hesitate to use military force to take out terrorists who pose a direct threat to America. This requires a broader set of capabilities, as outlined in the Army and Marine Corps's new counter-insurgency manual. I will ensure that our military becomes more stealth, agile, and lethal in its ability to capture or kill terrorists. We need to recruit, train, and equip our armed forces to better target terrorists, and to help foreign militaries to do the same. This must include a program to bolster our ability to speak different languages, understand different cultures, and coordinate complex missions with our civilian agencies.

JackB1 wrote:On a side note, did anyone know that we are now entering the Pakistan border in a last ditch effort to find Bin Laden? And that Pakistan is firing on our choppers? What happens when they take one down and there are sizable American casualties there? What then?


Jack we have been going into Pakistan since 02. We just can't go in deep enough to get who we want, that started to changed in the last year. Please don't say it's a last ditch effort because no matter who becomes President the hunt for Bin Laden will continue. As well it should.
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Post by Jackdog »

I think McCain did much better than Obama expected. Hell he agreed with McCain eight times.

I personally believe McCain won,but in the spirt of working across party threads here at DSP I'll call it a push. :wink:
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Post by RobVarak »

Next morning thoughts: Obama really scored by sticking with his mythical 95% get tax cuts rhetoric.

McCain's delivered an excellent parting shot with his line about "on the job training." It's just a damn shame that 99% of the audience won't pick up the Joe Biden reference. :)
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Post by GTHobbes »

I thought Obama came across as far more Presidential, I wasn't bothered at all by him referring to McCain by his first name, I was bothered (as was my girlfriend) by McCain not looking at Obama throughout, but at the end of the day, I thought they both did a fine job and I wouldn't have a problem with either of these guys serving as President. Palin's a different story...I can't stand her, based on the little I've seen. Maybe her debate will change that.

The one thing I didn't like last night was McCain overplaying the Iranian President's comment about wiping Israel off the map. I watched him on Larry King this week and, if he'd said that before, he was clearly backpeddling on King. I'd like to see us talk to him, and I thought Obama scored when he talked about how Bush's policy in that regard has been a complete failure.
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Post by Teal »

TheHiddenTrack wrote:The no eye contact thing really bothered me. And if he does that again during the next two debates it's going to be quite creepy.
Explain that. That makes no sense to me. What is supposed to do, stare into his eyes and see his soul?
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Post by Teal »

Obama agreed with McCain nine times. I know the video is already up, but here are all the instances:
http://embeds.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/09 ... -is-right/

That just reminded me-anyone remember which presidential candidate last did that this much?



Al Gore.
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Post by RobVarak »

GTHobbes wrote: The one thing I didn't like last night was McCain overplaying the Iranian President's comment about wiping Israel off the map.
That sort of threat, particularly when viewed in the context of Iran's history and recent actions, strikes me as very difficult to overplay. I'm guessing that they didn't feel it was overplayed in Tel Aviv or Haifa. LOL
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Post by XXXIV »

RobVarak wrote:
GTHobbes wrote: The one thing I didn't like last night was McCain overplaying the Iranian President's comment about wiping Israel off the map.
That sort of threat, particularly when viewed in the context of Iran's history and recent actions, strikes me as very difficult to overplay. I'm guessing that they didn't feel it was overplayed in Tel Aviv or Haifa. LOL
I dont know...I always thought the Iranian dude was only kidding.
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Post by TheGamer »

Teal wrote:Obama agreed with McCain nine times. I know the video is already up, but here are all the instances:
http://embeds.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/09 ... -is-right/

That just reminded me-anyone remember which presidential candidate last did that this much?



Al Gore.
Part of being a good conversationalists is acknowledging what someone said and its ok to agree with someone if you have common ground. Its not weak to acknowledge someone's point that you agree with. I think its ridiculous for the campaign to take that and run with it. I look at it as more of a transistional statement.

In regards to the eye contact, its just common courtesy to look at someone when your talking to them or when they are speaking to you. That's the nonverbal feedback that you give when you are speaking with someone. Obama was much more classy in this respect than McCain. In my opinion its pretty petty of McCain to not show that respect to a person who could potentially be the next president.
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Post by MACTEPsporta »

I agree in the sense that this debate will not move the polls much. And even though I am pro-Obama I personally believe McCain won the debate. With that said, I also think, that the majority of people will view that Obama won the debate, because foreign policy isn't the main issue at this time, and average listener was tuning in to hear what candidates had to say about the economy, and Obama was more appealing there. McCain was clearly better on foreign policy, and if he had paid attention could have burried Obama altogether, but as I said, that's not the issue voters care about.

Obama had a couple of gaffes on foreign policy, most notable, his assertion that it was possible to avoid Russia-Georgia crisis by replacing Russian peacemakers in the area with blue berets. That's simply lack of knowledge on the issue. Unfortunately for McCain he let Obama off the hook on that one. I am surprised Republicans haven't jumped on it yet. I am also suprpised that neither candidate mentioned that Russia acknowledged independence of both South Osetia and Abkhazia.

Obama's hair and eyebrows looked extremely dark, it has no political meaning but it just jumped out at me. Maybe he tried to point out his youthfullness in contrast to McCain's age.

Is it too farfetched to think that by calling McCain "Jim" or "Tom" Obama is setting the stage for calling him "George" or even "Bush" later?

It has been said, debates don't change polls, as they come late in the election cycle, where the majority of voters have already made their pick. I, however, believe that the VP debate can be a game changer. General public is looking for proof that Palin is way over her head, and if Biden grows a pair and is able to exploit her lack of... well... everything, it may be a big hit for McCain.
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Post by Jared »

I think both McCain and Obama did a good job at the debate. IMO, it helps Obama more, because (being less known) it allowed a lot of the public to get to know how he would handle a debate setting, if he looked "presidential", etc. A CNN poll has Obama winning the debate, 51-38; and he also won "more in touch with the needs and problems of people like you" 62-32 (!), and "seemed to be the stronger leader" 49-43 (see fivethirtyeight.com for more of that stuff). CBS had him going from +18 to +56 on "understanding your needs and problems", and -9 to +21 on "prepared to be president".

I also think that (like PK said) they dropped the ball during the economic segment...they really could have directly addressed the American people on these things, but it seems like they were both afraid of making mistakes.

As for the Kissinger kerfuffle... McCain talked about how "we wouldn't legitimize with a face to face meeting, a person like Ahmadinejad", without preconditions. By we, I assume he's talking about the United States (and not just himself as the president). Though I'm guessing it's confusing, as earlier in his statement, McCain was talking about Obama himself meeting with these people. Obama then correctly stated that Kissinger supports that we should meet with Iran w/o preconditions, which is true: at the secretary of state level. I think the confusion came from McCain's use of "we" at the end, which is what Obama was responding to. And it's clear that Obama never said that Kissinger supported presidential-level talks, as he clarified this twice. From the transcript:
MCCAIN: Look, Dr. Kissinger did not say that he would approve of face-to- face meetings between the president of the United States and the president -- and Ahmadinejad. He did not say that.

OBAMA: Of course not.

***

MCCAIN: And I guarantee you he would not -- he would not say that presidential top level.

OBAMA: Nobody's talking about that.
Obama was right, though I understand the confusion by McCain. As for Kissinger's post-debate quote, it is very clear from the transcript that Obama was <b>not</b> mischaracterizing Kissinger's position, so it seems like Kissinger's spinning a bit in his post-debate comment. Jack's fact check link was right.

***

Teal,

Most people would not consider progressive taxation as "robbery". Let's put it this way: Person A is making 20k a year, and person B is making 200k a year. Person A needs every penny they can to survive, whereas person B doesn't. If you tax them at the same rate (say, 20%), then you're digging into person A's ability to pay rent, bills, food, etc; whereas for person B you're cutting into their ability to put money into non-essentialy things. With a progressive tax rate, you're accounting for that.

Jackdog,

Totally agree about Afghanistan.

Rob,

You're right about the Obama tax-cut thing...it decreases taxes on 95% of famlies with children, and on 81% of households. McCain's plan decreases taxes on only 56% of households. Furthermore Obama's plan gives a bigger tax break to everyone in the lowest to fourth quintiles of households than McCain's plan (don't have the exact number, see the links below for my sources):

http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/numbers/ ... ocTypeID=2
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/numbers/ ... ocTypeID=2

One more thing: Biden was all over the networks doing post-game commentary, and being the VP candidate, he'll get prime time to talk on any network. Palin was <b>nowhere</b>, which is significant because you lose that ability to have high profile post-game spin. (On both NBC and CNN, I saw them say that they wanted to get Palin but she wouldn't come on.) This is what I've always thought about the Palin pick for McCain: short-term boost, long-term liability. Not doing post-debate interviews continues the perception that Palin is being coddled and hidden b/c she's not ready.
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Post by RobVarak »

My biggest problem with McCain was that he didn't tear apart Obama's tax plan enough. It wasn't feasible with the smoke and mirrors loophole before and it's certainly not feasible given the economic crisis.

If he had been as effective at blasting that 95% number off the field as he was the 90% Bush number it would've been an even clearer victory. Still two debates to make it happen, but with each debate the viewership tends to drop.
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Post by MACTEPsporta »

RobVarak wrote:My biggest problem with McCain was that he didn't tear apart Obama's tax plan enough. It wasn't feasible with the smoke and mirrors loophole before and it's certainly not feasible given the economic crisis.

If he had been as effective at blasting that 95% number off the field as he was the 90% Bush number it would've been an even clearer victory. Still two debates to make it happen, but with each debate the viewership tends to drop.
If I remember correctly McCain's plan involves bigger overall tax cut, than Obama's. So, neither one is likely to be feasible. Obama does have more programs to support, but catching him on impossibility of his proposals will involve sitting down and crunching numbers, and neither campaign wants to talk numbers, since they are all absolutely unfounded at this point.

I also think that the next debate will be be strategised more based on the result of the VP debate, than on the results of this one. I believe, there will be a lot to talk about after Palin and Biden are through, especially considering that next pres debate is only a few days after VP candidates take the stage.
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Post by Teal »

Jared wrote: Teal,

Most people would not consider progressive taxation as "robbery". Let's put it this way: Person A is making 20k a year, and person B is making 200k a year. Person A needs every penny they can to survive, whereas person B doesn't. If you tax them at the same rate (say, 20%), then you're digging into person A's ability to pay rent, bills, food, etc; whereas for person B you're cutting into their ability to put money into non-essentialy things. With a progressive tax rate, you're accounting for that.
For all the talk about 'fairness' by liberals, how in the world can one find it fair to tax someone more simply because they have more money? It IS robbery, Jared. It is patently unfair. It IS socialism. It is akin to hanging the rich upside down, and shaking them for the contents of their pockets, then turning around and giving it away to whomever and whatever they please. It's socialism.

Do the math. Suppose that you put taxes at a flat 10% across the board. If you make 30,000 dollars per year, your tax rate is 3000 dollars. If you make 300,000 bucks, your tax rate is 30,000. If you clear 3,000,000, your tax rate is 300,000. The rich folks are, by proxy, already PAYING more taxes. It's not right to penalize folks simply because their income is more than someone else. 'Well, you've gotta give more, because Joe Middle Class over here needs help, and you're going to do it, whether you like it or not. Look at it as your patriotic duty.'

That's complete nonsense. And no, I'm nowhere approaching rich...
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Post by MACTEPsporta »

Teal wrote: For all the talk about 'fairness' by liberals, how in the world can one find it fair to tax someone more simply because they have more money? It IS robbery, Jared. It is patently unfair. It IS socialism.
Would it make you feel better if it wasn't the rich paying more, but simply the poor paying less? Instead of thinking that the standard tax rate is 20% and increases if your income increases, view it as 35% and decreasing if your income is less, as a welfare program of sorts. That's just to help you get used to the idea.

One way or the other it is present in every capitalist society, and it makes more financial sense than you think. People who make more, than required to merely survive are able to invest and get dividends on that investment.

Still unfair? You are probably right, but that's just how it works regardless of what you and I think. As long as you have minority making more, majority will want to tax them more. That IS capitalism. And no, it's not socialism, it's actually the exact opposite of it.
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Post by Jackdog »

Teal wrote:
For all the talk about 'fairness' by liberals, how in the world can one find it fair to tax someone more simply because they have more money? It IS robbery, Jared. It is patently unfair. It IS socialism. It is akin to hanging the rich upside down, and shaking them for the contents of their pockets, then turning around and giving it away to whomever and whatever they please. It's socialism.

Do the math. Suppose that you put taxes at a flat 10% across the board. If you make 30,000 dollars per year, your tax rate is 3000 dollars. If you make 300,000 bucks, your tax rate is 30,000. If you clear 3,000,000, your tax rate is 300,000. The rich folks are, by proxy, already PAYING more taxes. It's not right to penalize folks simply because their income is more than someone else. 'Well, you've gotta give more, because Joe Middle Class over here needs help, and you're going to do it, whether you like it or not. Look at it as your patriotic duty.'

That's complete nonsense. And no, I'm nowhere approaching rich...
I agree man. IMO it's not what this country was founded on. I have never understood the idea of punishing people that are financially successful. In this capitalist society, the experts get paid more than ordinary folk. The best chefs are paid more than a short order cook. The same gaps exist between the major league ball players vs minor league foks. CEOs vs lower-rung management. We all get rewarded by where we sit in the career / talent / contribution hierarchy. The rich are paying their fair share. The Goverment is out of control spending it.
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Post by pk500 »

Teal wrote:That's easy. They prepared for a FOREIGN POLICY DEBATE. In a few weeks, when they do the ACTUAL economic debate (which I hope is half foreign policy, so as to give equal time to each), you'll probably hear the talking points you were after.
Isn't grasp of all issues the hallmark of an effective president? Isn't multi-tasking part of the job? Can neither guy stray away from the prepared Cliffs Notes?

These guys both knew that economic questions would be asked tonight. They didn't know the specific questions, but I find it impossible to believe that the decision to incorporate questions about the economy as an offshoot of national security was unknown by both campaigns before the debate.

Why should the economic debate be half-foreign policy to give equal time? The economy and the financial crisis is the No. 1 issue on the minds of most Americans right now -- it SHOULD receive more attention.

But do you seek balance because economic issues are one area where McCain consistently trails Obama in the polls and foreign affairs are one area where McCain consistently leads Obama in the polls?

No, couldn't be. You're fair and balanced in this election, after all, and have no dog in this chase.

I honestly haven't made up my mind on either guy yet, so I have no leading horse in these debates. So without sounding like an arrogant dick (yeah, I know that's impossible :)), I think I bring a bit less bias to the table here than some partisans, including yourself.

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Post by pk500 »

Teal wrote:
TheHiddenTrack wrote:The no eye contact thing really bothered me. And if he does that again during the next two debates it's going to be quite creepy.
Explain that. That makes no sense to me. What is supposed to do, stare into his eyes and see his soul?
Agreed. Whether McCain looks at Obama or whether Obama calls McCain "John" is nearly subterranean on the importance scale.

At least both of these guys can construct complete sentences and talk without sounding like a guy drinking away his paycheck at the corner bar on Friday night, unlike the current "nucular" occupant of the White House.

Both of these guys seem rational and intelligent with a degree of mental flexibility. That's a positive step for America.

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Post by TheHiddenTrack »

Teal wrote: Explain that. That makes no sense to me. What is supposed to do, stare into his eyes and see his soul?
No, not at all. But he wouldn't even look in his direction. A glance towards Obama once or twice was all I was expecting. And I'm not saying it was all that "important"...just that it's rather awkward and odd.
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Post by Teal »

No Paul, it doesn't have anything to do with me 'having a dog in the hunt', as to what I think of the first HALF of a foreign policy debate being about the economy. I believe that there should have been ONE opening question about the economy, so as to get that out of the way, and then deal with the subject of the debate. And even then, I still think McCain has a better grasp on the economy, as I think Obama is a pure ol' socialist. :)

I'm not one of the people who think Obama 'won' the economic debate, because the fundamental principles behind his ideology are terribly flawed from the get-go.

And I never claimed to be a fence rider... :wink:
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Post by Brando70 »

The worst thing to ever happen to the presidential debates: high definition. McCain looked like an old q-tip and Obama looked like he got the Time O.J. Simpson darkening treatment.

I agree that neither candidate really got one over the other. I thought McCain was pretty rusty and out of synch until they started talking about Iraq. Then again, old cars do take longer to start. :D
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Post by macsomjrr »

Obama whooped up on McCain. He showed that he is smarter, more poised, and a born leader. Someone who isn't afraid to stand up for his beliefs and what do is right for this country. That being said I thought Kerry and Gore killed Bush for the most part during their debates and look where we are now. Scary stuff is you're a liberal.

McCain has lost so much of what made him an attractive candidate for moderates over the past year that I just don't see him attracting all the fence walkers going into the final few months/weeks. He had to steer himself waaaaay right in order to court the remaining super-conserves and in doing so he has given up a lot of the appeal that people like myself had for him 2-3 years ago. It's kinda sad.

Obviously I'm an Obama-kinda guy so blah blah blah right;)
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Post by Teal »

macsomjrr wrote:Scary stuff if you're a liberal.
Yeah...BEING a liberal must be scary enough... :wink:
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Post by JackB1 »

macsomjrr wrote:Obama whooped up on McCain. He showed that he is smarter, more poised, and a born leader. Someone who isn't afraid to stand up for his beliefs and what do is right for this country. That being said I thought Kerry and Gore killed Bush for the most part during their debates and look where we are now. Scary stuff is you're a liberal.
I was thinking the same thing. I remember how bad Gore made Bush look in the debates and then you go online and the general public had it close to 50/50...so you never know.

What would be more interesting is how did the swing voters see it?

One thing is for certain....we will be a lot better off with either of these guys in charge, than with more W.
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Post by pk500 »

macsomjrr wrote:Obama whooped up on McCain. He showed that he is smarter, more poised, and a born leader. Someone who isn't afraid to stand up for his beliefs and what do is right for this country.
Oooph: That is a stretch of Gumby-like proportions, especially since you've offered zero specifics but a lot of pretty talking points to support your position. But you're entitled to wave the pom-pom for your man.
macsomjrr wrote:McCain has lost so much of what made him an attractive candidate for moderates over the past year that I just don't see him attracting all the fence walkers going into the final few months/weeks. He had to steer himself waaaaay right in order to court the remaining super-conserves and in doing so he has given up a lot of the appeal that people like myself had for him 2-3 years ago.
I agree with you 100 percent here. The Johnny Maverick personna is convenient when you're trying to run as far as possible from the Bush administration, because Obama's most common -- and becoming his most tiring -- campaign tactic is to tie McCain to Bush. Whatever happened to "Change We Can All Believe In?"

But McCain's maverick reputation isn't really not based in recent reality, especially in issues that really matter to voters right now, such as the war in Iraq and the economy. McCain has been a strong supporter of the war and the surge, and he's an ardent believer in trickle-down economics and minimal government regulation.

Take care,
PK
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