OT: 2008 Elections

[FatPitcher]

If the Clintons see that high turnouts favor their opponent, you would think they'd have to grace to back out.

I think the Clintons would be willing to sacrifice party success for the chance at personal gain. "Principled" is not a word I would use to describe either.

I think that nearly all Hillary voters would vote for Obama in the general election if he is the nominee. Obama voters, particularly those who historically have low turnout (blacks and young people), would probably stay home like they usually do if Clinton wins, or even more so because their candidate's defeat makes them feel disempowered.

Who would Hillary's VP be? Bill Richardson? I don't think Edwards is going to be anyone's VP choice after being a part of the Kerry campaign that snatched defeat from the jaws of certain victory.

And Obama's?

On the Republican side, Fred Thompson might be a good choice, as he's more in line with the social conservative side of the Republican party than McCain, Romney, and Giuliani, and is generally likeable and harmless.

[JRod]

I'm putting my money on Sen. Chris Dodd to be Obama's VP choice. He bring the experience card to the table.

I see Sen. Biden moving to Sec. of State.

Richarson probably will run for Senator of New Mexico because he's already been a cabinet member. He would probably accept a VP role. I don't think he would get that offer from Obama but certainly Hilary would try to get the hispanic vote with Richardson.

I could see Obama offering Sec. of Defense to McCain.

I think Edwards would be left out in the cold. Maybe a Sec. of Labor or something but I don't think he would take it.

People may criticize him from being non-charismatic but as a VP, I think Obama's campaign wouldn't want anyone to over shadow Obama. Therefore picking someone that is unassuming but brings a lot of experience to the ticket.

Take this current attack by the Clintons on Obama, out of the picture, I don't think Obama would have ever been Hillary's VP choice and Hilary wouldn't be Obama's VP choice because the VP choice could outstage the candidate at times.

Worst thing you can do is have a VP nominee as a distraction from the message.

[Brando70]

It is pretty exciting that we're going to get to Super Tuesday with both races still undecided. Edwards is definitely done, and I think voters for him will be more likely to go to Obama. But Clinton's political machine is still formidible.

I don't think there is any chance you would see Clinton or Obama be each others VP. Richardson is a logical choice for either, and he would be following Chris Rock's advice that the first black president should choose a Hispanic VP

Not sure about Thompson as a VP. He was so unenthusiastic and lackluster during his campaign, like he was only running because people thought he should. I would think if the GOP nominee needs to shore up his conservative bona fides, he could find a better choice out there.

[wco81]

If the Clintons see that high turnouts favor their opponent, you would think they'd have to grace to back out.

WCO:

This is the Clintons we're talking about. Grace never has been in their lexicon.

Take care,
PK

To be fair, I don't think there are too many politicians who'd back out, even if they recognize that a rival is bringing in a lot of voters to the party, as Obama seems to be doing.

Clintons have been laying the groundwork for years. For instance, they've been coming out here to CA and making allies throughout and since his presidency ended.

That is why they have a lot of support from Latino pols here. Also, Clinton did have a lot of Hispanics in his admin.

That and there's been a rivalry between blacks and Hispanics fighting for the same crumbs. So if Obama is painted as a black candidate, even though his first victory was in Iowa, then Hispanic voters may feel alienated from him.

[Jackdog]

That and there's been a rivalry between blacks and Hispanics fighting for the same crumbs. So if Obama is painted as a black candidate, even though his first victory was in Iowa, then Hispanic voters may feel alienated from him.

Crumbs as in welfare or jobs?

[wco81]

Sorry poor use of words.

Just assuming a lot of socioeconomic overlap, going for similar jobs and rivalry between ethnic minorities.

Median incomes between the two are probably closer than either group compared to other groups and well below median incomes for whites.

Unemployment for teen black males have been in the high double-digits for a long time, even in the best of times. That has to be a source of tension when other ethnic groups, particularly immigrant groups like Hispanics or Asians, come in and fare better.

It would be interesting to see what kind of support black and Hispanic politicians at state and local levels get from voters in other ethnic groups.

[Jackdog]

Sorry poor use of words.

Just assuming a lot of socioeconomic overlap, going for similar jobs and rivalry between ethnic minorities.

Median incomes between the two are probably closer than either group compared to other groups and well below median incomes for whites.

Unemployment for teen black males have been in the high double-digits for a long time, even in the best of times. That has to be a source of tension when other ethnic groups, particularly immigrant groups like Hispanics or Asians, come in and fare better.

It would be interesting to see what kind of support black and Hispanic politicians at state and local levels get from voters in other ethnic groups.

No problem. Just wanted to see where you were coming from. I agree.

[JackB1]

this is great:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEaS-K3j3M8[url][/url]

[FatPitcher]

this is great:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEaS-K3j3M8[url][/url]

Heheheheh. Reminded me of the south park change zombies epsiode, so I searched youtube and saw this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBqiee2RM60

[Inuyasha]

more jfk pulling out of nam:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YK4ccHwTo3s

[wco81]

McCain wins FL. Rudi to join him in CA before a debate there to endorse McCain.

Clinton wins big in FL, even though there are no delegates awarded.

Polls in big states trending towards Clinton and McCain.

They look like the nominees and next Tuesday should clarify.

[RobVarak]

more jfk pulling out of nam:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YK4ccHwTo3s

LMAO

[Naples39]

McCain wins FL. Rudi to join him in CA before a debate there to endorse McCain.

Clinton wins big in FL, even though there are no delegates awarded.

Polls in big states trending towards Clinton and McCain.

They look like the nominees and next Tuesday should clarify.

It does look like McCain may have won himself the nomination tonight. Not as sure for Hillary, but she's in very good position, however much that boggles my mind.

[Slumberland]

Not as sure for Hillary, but she's in very good position, however much that boggles my mind.

Mine too... MINE TOO!!!

[matthewk]

If it ends up being between Clinton and McCain I'm not sure what I'll do. Maybe move to Canada Choosing between them would be like selecting a method of execution.

[pk500]

Not as sure for Hillary, but she's in very good position, however much that boggles my mind.

Mine too... MINE TOO!!!

Mine three. She offers absolutely NOTHING new for America. In fact, she offers nothing at all.

News flash: Looks like the son of a mill worker is heading back to the mill. Edwards supposedly is dropping out of the race today. How will Lou Dobbs' populist clones cope?

Seriously, Edwards probably will endorse Obama, right?

Take care,
PK

[pk500]

Polls in big states trending towards Clinton and McCain.

They look like the nominees and next Tuesday should clarify.

That's a dream matchup for the Republicans. McCain wins that election as long as he keeps his cool on the campaign trail and stays on message.

McCain attracts more independent, centrist and Republicrat voters than Hillary, so that's a plus. He's a much less polarizing figure than Hillary, so that's a plus. And his pro-surge stance appears to have political capital, as the surge and Iraq War are much less of a campaign issue because the surge apparently is working and the economy is going south.

Hillary has the typical Democratic solutions to the economy. More government involvement and funding. McCain supports the Bush tax cuts, which have more popular appeal.

What does Joe Sixpack want to hear, that the government is going to pump more money into economic programs or that Uncle Sam is putting a $600 check into his mail box? Joe Sixpack doesn't think about the long-term ramifications of tax cuts on the Federal deficit; he's just happy he has an extra 600 bones to blow on beer or that new big-screen TV that he doesn't need.

McCain beats Hillary. The Democrats blow every bit of their political capital from the midterms in 2006, fail to topple the party of one of the most unpopular presidents in modern American history and become even more of a laughing stock.

Take care,
PK

[Slumberland]

I like McCain, though he's played that 'you criticize the war, you're criticizing the troops' card WAY too much as of late. I appreciate his clear views on "enhanced interrogation" (Orwell spins in grave), where he's less equivocating than Hillary.

If that's the matchup, dems are going to be eating a big helping of regret pie post-November. I really thought people nationwide were waking up from this Clinton nonsense. I have.

[dbdynsty25]

Joe Sixpack doesn't think about the long-term ramifications of tax cuts on the Federal deficit; he's just happy he has an extra 600 bones to blow on beer or that new big-screen TV that he doesn't need.

But that's why they gave him the check in the first place!

[pk500]

If that's the matchup, dems are going to be eating a big helping of regret pie post-November. I really thought people nationwide were waking up from this Clinton nonsense. I have.

Absolutely.

It's amazing to see Bill's almost-instant transformation from statesman to rabid, foaming attack dog in the last few weeks. The guy will do anything to get his wife elected and return to the White House, including playing a royal flush of race cards and distortions.

Plus the repeated emergence of Slick Willie's temper when questioned by reporters also proves that this guy is nothing more than a political animal, absolutely bent on returning to power. Bill Clinton is no measured, unifying statesman.

About the only thing that separates his zeal for his blind ideology from that of Dick Cheney -- even if their idealogies are polar opposites -- is a good, healthy "GO F*CK YOURSELF" to a reporter or political rival.

Take care,
PK

[JackB1]

McCain beats Hillary. The Democrats blow every bit of their political capital from the midterms in 2006, fail to topple the party of one of the most unpopular presidents in modern American history and become even more of a laughing stock.
Take care,
PK

You really think McCain beats Hillary? I'm not so sure about that. McCain has zero personality and I think once the actual Presidential campaign starts after he wins the nomination, his popularity will lessen. He won't win over many more during debates. The real conservative right doesn't like McCain and probably just won't show up to vote. The Dem's have been getting record turnouts at the polls and that spells trouble for McCain.

I would really like to see a McCain vs Obama matchup. How do you think that would go? I really can't see the Rep's winning the upcoming election no matter who they throw up there. I thought Gulliani had a shot but now that he's gone, who really can beat Hillary or Obama?

[Slumberland]

The real conservative right doesn't like McCain and probably just won't show up to vote.

If Hillary is the opponent, they will certainly show up.

[wco81]

Well McCain got a lot of support in the conservative FL panhandle and GA border area.

So maybe the Republicans still want to see a continuation of Bush policies, especially on the war. There was always a core of Republicans who've been staunch supporters of everything about the war and McCain seems to have promised to continue with the war. Even if the surge ends, there's a lot of money which could be poured over there.

Polls show economy is a big issue but Romney couldn't sell that he would be better managing the economy even though the economy is supposedly a weakness for McCain.

He'll probably run on making the Bush tax cuts permanent or some new ones.

[pk500]

You really think McCain beats Hillary? I'm not so sure about that.

I'm positive about that.

McCain has zero personality and I think once the actual Presidential campaign starts after he wins the nomination, his popularity will lessen. He won't win over many more during debates.

How so? The guy can proven during the Republican debates that he's a tough guy to tackle on the stump, as he has eviscerated Romney more than once. I don't see Hillary taking him down at all in the debates, and he will destroy her on issues of foreign policy and campaign finance reform.

The real conservative right doesn't like McCain and probably just won't show up to vote.

Baloney. Conservatives are a patriotic, participatory bunch, and they'll vote for the Republican candidate, regardless of who it is. They fear a Democrat in office much more than they loathe McCain, so they'll turn out on Election Day.

The Dem's have been getting record turnouts at the polls and that spells trouble for McCain.

Those record turnouts are due to one man: Barack Obama. He has energized blacks and the young to follow him. If he's not the nominee, their participation will end. Blacks and the young aren't enamored with politics; they're fired up by Obama. If he's gone, they're gone, and Hillary does NOT connect with the young.

I would really like to see a McCain vs Obama matchup. How do you think that would go?

That would be fascinating, a real crap shoot.

I really can't see the Rep's winning the upcoming election no matter who they throw up there. I thought Gulliani had a shot but now that he's gone, who really can beat Hillary or Obama?

Why? Combat deaths are dropping in Iraq, whether it's because of the surge or something else. Bush is putting $600 into people's wallets this spring, a big plus.

If the economy stabilizes or improves this summer and combat deaths continue to drop in Iraq, what do the Democrats have to run on?

The Democrats have stood with their penises and vaginas in their hands for the last 14 months, wasting all of the equity they earned through their midterm election dominance. The Dems can run on "change" all they want, but what the f*ck have they changed in Washington since having control of Congress in the last year? Not much, so those promises of change ring pretty hollow.

Sure, the Bush legacy hurts. But the GOP candidates and eventual nominee aren't dumb -- they're all distancing themselves from Dubya as much as possible. They don't even want to be in the same area code as him, and you'll see Bush do little or no campaigning for the GOP candidate. The nominee doesn't want to be associated with a borderline political pariah.

Finally, McCain projects an integrity that people like. Compare his very real credentials as a POW to Hillary, who is the only First Lady ever to be indicted. That resonates with people.

McCain can, and will, beat Hillary in November if they're the nominees.

Take care,
PK

[Naples39]

FWIW, McCain v Clinton polls;
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... n-224.html