OT: 2008 Elections/Politics thread, Part 2

[RobVarak]

I think the VP choices this time are incredibly interesting, even if they prove no more dispositive in the election itself. I always find Biden to be a fascinating character, but I can't believe that Obama would pick him for two reasons. First, polls have shown that the voters that Obama is after are most concerned with this experience. While some argue that adding Biden would help, I tend to think that adding any experienced VP will make Obama look diminished by comparison. Anybody who looks like he could realistically refer to Obama as "Junior" should be ruled out.

To me what you want to do is keep selling Obama as The New Thing. That being the case, what you want is The New Thing Lite as VP... Bayh, Sibelius, Napolitano maybe? I'd always rather see a campaign play toward a candidate's strengths rather than highlight his weaknesses by comparison.

I would personally love to see McCan take Sara Palin. She's a great character as well, good positions, good resume...but geography does her absolutely no favors.

Of the principal names mentioned Romney does nothing for me. The others on the GOP side range from meh, to ok. Palin's the only one who's even remotely dynamic enough to interest me.

[pk500]

Question about Romney: Do his Mormon beliefs scare more people than his pro-life beliefs attract?

Seems to be a push, in poker terms, to me.

Whatever McCain is doing is working. He is ahead of Obama for the first time in a national Zogby poll.

I told my wife back in May that McCain would win. She's a Republican, but even she thought I was nuts. I said to her that Obama's slogans without substance would wear thin after a while and that McCain would play the fear and experience cards to take control. Plus I said many voters aren't ready for a black dude in the White House, especially in the conservative Midwest battleground states.

Maybe this is just an ebb for Obama, but everything in the last six weeks that should have smoothed his coronation has backfired. The European rock star tour was a PR flop here in the States, and McCain more than held his own in the faith-based debate last weekend. Obama was supposed to trounce McCain, who many think can't function for more than 15 seconds without a TelePrompter, in head-to-head debates.

The Dems should be afraid. Very afraid.

Take care,
PK

[pk500]

Of the principal names mentioned Romney does nothing for me. The others on the GOP side range from meh, to ok. Palin's the only one who's even remotely dynamic enough to interest me.

Cindy McCain never would let it happen because she'd have a challenger as the MILF Deluxe on the McCain campaign trail.

Take care,
PK

[matthewk]

As much as I have heard that McCain can be shaky without (and sometimes even with) a telepropter, I think Obama can sound lost once he is forced to speak outside of his prepared speeches.

I noticed some of that during the faith debate last week. There were times when he didn't sound much like the same person making those MLK-like speeches.

Even though I don't care much for either choice, it should be an interesting election.

[Jackdog]

Question about Romney: Do his Mormon beliefs scare more people than his pro-life beliefs attract?

Seems to be a push, in poker terms, to me.

Whatever McCain is doing is working. He is ahead of Obama for the first time in a national Zogby poll.

I told my wife back in May that McCain would win. She's a Republican, but even she thought I was nuts. I said to her that Obama's slogans without substance would wear thin after a while and that McCain would play the fear and experience cards to take control. Plus I said many voters aren't ready for a black dude in the White House, especially in the conservative Midwest battleground states.

Maybe this is just an ebb for Obama, but everything in the last six weeks that should have smoothed his coronation has backfired. The European rock star tour was a PR flop here in the States, and McCain more than held his own in the faith-based debate last weekend. Obama was supposed to trounce McCain, who many think can't function for more than 15 seconds without a TelePrompter, in head-to-head debates.

The Dems should be afraid. Very afraid.

Take care,
PK

Independents that will actually vote in this election are seeing Obama for what he really is. A politician. His chant's of "Change" were no lie. He's changed his stance on everything from Iraq to drilling offshore. I find it ironic Kerry was mentioned as a possible running mate. Looks like lately Obama is following Kerrys 2004 playbook.

This should have been a landslide for Obama. But this is the Dems. They are so disfunctional they can always find a way to mess up elections they were supposed to win. We shall see.

I agree with Matt. Obama doesn't do well speaking off the cuff. I thought McCain outshined him last week as well.

[fsquid]

Obama was supposed to trounce McCain, who many think can't function for more than 15 seconds without a TelePrompter, in head-to-head debates.

Huh? I've always thought that McCain would smoke Obama in any debate. I thought Obama was shite in the demo debates and McCain seems to actually be able to think on his feet.

[wco81]

McCain will have a low bar, like Bush did. All he has to do is repeat some slogans like "follow Osama to the gates of Hell."

Meanwhile, Obama will probably overthink it and give long answers people won't remember.

As usual, no policy differences will be outlined, meaning it bodes well for McCain.

[Brando70]

McCain has improved, but he is a weak candidate. He is a name-brand, respected politician and a war hero, yet he's running even against a black guy with no experience? He's the one that should be killing Obama, not the other way around. And it's interesting that he only started to gain momentum the minute he went into negative mode.

Unless a campaign-killing scandal hits one of them, this election will probably be too close to predict. Poll numbers now are not very precise indicators and just provide a general indication of things. Whether Obama is up by a few points or McCain is doesn't really indicate much beyond the election being even right now. The biggest issue for the Democrats is whether the convention goes smoothly or Clinton supporters cause a ruckus.

[Inuyasha]

Here's a site that keeps track of electoral college trends weekly :

http://electoralmap.net/index.php



Democrat: 293
Republican: 227
Dead Heat: 18
Total: 538 (270 to win)

[RobVarak]

McCain has improved, but he is a weak candidate. He is a name-brand, respected politician and a war hero, yet he's running even against a black guy with no experience? He's the one that should be killing Obama, not the other way around. And it's interesting that he only started to gain momentum the minute he went into negative mode.

"A black guy with no experience"...and the backing of the Chicago Machine, more money than anyone has ever seen in a presidential campaign, the (albeit begrudging) support of the scarecrows at the DNC and the media in his back pocket. Let's not airbrush out all the details

And if we're pointing out reasons that the candidates should be doing better, how is Obama not 15 points ahead of yet another old, white Republican with no charisma, less money, a huge senatorial voting record to take advantage of and linked to an incumbent president with an approval rating dropping faster than Georgian T-bills...and with the media in his back pocket? These people who aren't buying what Obama's selling can't all be racists, can they? I'm asking you and the board, not the Obama campaign, who apparently see anyone running around without Obama bumper stickers as a troglydyte redneck.

I really think he's missed the mark with this, "The GOP is gonna scare you" nonsense. He's running last election's campaign. Axlerod and his ilk have been so spooked by shadowboxing with Karl Rove that they haven't noticed that McCain isn't trying to "scare" anyone with intimations about Obama's race, name or big ears. They're trying to fabricate an environment where questioning the candidate's experience or policies is a scare tactic, but people are wise enough to know that every political jab is not some hidden racial attack.

I agree with you on the big picture, and I'm pretty sure that I've said basically the same thing in this very thread. Moreover, despite the national polling problems for his campaign, Obama's electoral college position remainst strong by almost every count. But boy is it gonna be fun.

PS I just saw that Joe Lieberman's going to speak at the GOP convention. From a purely academic perspective, how interesting is it that the man who could've been the Democratic VP for the last 8 years has a slot on the GOP program? Crazy times.

[pk500]

Even the left-wingers at The Huffington Post are freaking out that Obama will lose without Hillary as his running mate because of "The Bradley Effect," which states a major black candidate needs a poll edge of 7 to 9 percent entering Election Day because so many white voters change their minds in the polling booth:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rebecca-c ... 19681.html

Take care,
PK

[pk500]

PS I just saw that Joe Lieberman's going to speak at the GOP convention. From a purely academic perspective, how interesting is it that the man who could've been the Democratic VP for the last 8 years has a slot on the GOP program? Crazy times.

This thrills me to no end, actually. Lieberman's fence jump shows that America needs a viable third party more than ever, as even politicians aren't happy with their own parties.

Yes, Lieberman always has been a maverick among donkeys, but speaking at the other team's convention is a big step.

Harry Reid's shorts must be in a triple knot right now.

Take care,
PK

[wco81]

Lieberman is a one-issue candidate, that being the war (and how it connects to Israeli policy).

On every other issue, he's like the RINOs in the NE or more liberal.

He may get a good reception but a lot of Southerners will sit on their hands, just as they did when Pataki and Giuliani spoke in previous GOP conventions.


No not everyone who opposes Obama is a redneck. There are still a lot of staunch Republican voters (in 2004, just 6% of GOP voters voted for Kerry while 11% of Democratic voters voted for Bush).

So far, Bush is still the biggest GOP fundraiser. He has raised $932 million since he ran in 2000, not just for himself but for other GOP candidates including McCain. A lot of candidates are taking his money but still trying to keep their distance.

However, apparently there's a deep well of Republicans who will only contribute through him. These voters would never have voted anyone but Republican in any election.

You can certainly say the same about many who've contributed to Obama (other Democratic candidates aren't raising that much money -- RNC has way more money than the DNC) but he has a wider base of individual donors than probably any candidate in history.

[RobVarak]

Lieberman is a one-issue candidate, that being the war (and how it connects to Israeli policy).

On every other issue, he's like the RINOs in the NE or more liberal.

I don't know about that. His willingness to censor videogame content put him solidly in the camp of wrong-headed, right-wing book burners...and sqarely on my s***-list

[XXXIV]

Lieberman is a one-issue candidate, that being the war (and how it connects to Israeli policy).

On every other issue, he's like the RINOs in the NE or more liberal.

I don't know about that. His willingness to censor videogame content put him solidly in the camp of wrong-headed, right-wing book burners...and sqarely on my s***-list

Censoring videogames doesnt sound very liberal...Pretty fascist in fact.

[Brando70]

Lieberman can gargle my balls. He belongs in the GOP, because he proclaims to be a Democrat while reaching under the stall to give conservatives a tug job. I wish he would just come out of the closet already and join the Republicans already.

The experience question is something McCain should bring up, because it is Obama's biggest flaw. I'm a supporter and it's my biggest problem with him. At the same time, I don't think experience really sinks candidates that much. The Obama campaign should look at what Ah-nuld did in California, where he actually made the experience of his opponents seem like a negative thing (i.e. they have all this experience and look where that has gotten you). Bush, too, didn't have that much experience, especially compared to Gore or the other GOP contenders.

The post-convention bump (or lack thereof) will probably be more telling of what's going on than the current polls.

[XXXIV]

Lieberman can gargle my balls. He belongs in the GOP, because he proclaims to be a Democrat while reaching under the stall to give conservatives a tug job. I wish he would just come out of the closet already and join the Republicans already.

I hope you have okayed this with your wife ...

I do agree..It it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck...Its a duck.

[wco81]

If McCain picked Lieberman, watch the reaction in the GOP.

He's pro-choice and more pro-environmentalist than most GOP pols.

Only reason some conservatives didn't mind listening to Lieberman was because of the war and how he mouths similar polemic about "fascist Islam" being the greatest threat.


If the Democrats win enough majority in the Senate, they should just take away his standing in various committees. It's not as if if they have 59 votes for cloture, Lieberman is going to side with them rather than the Republicans, especially when it concerns the war.

[Jackdog]

Lieberman can gargle my balls. He belongs in the GOP, because he proclaims to be a Democrat while reaching under the stall to give conservatives a tug job. I wish he would just come out of the closet already and join the Republicans already.

The experience question is something McCain should bring up, because it is Obama's biggest flaw. I'm a supporter and it's my biggest problem with him. At the same time, I don't think experience really sinks candidates that much. The Obama campaign should look at what Ah-nuld did in California, where he actually made the experience of his opponents seem like a negative thing (i.e. they have all this experience and look where that has gotten you). Bush, too, didn't have that much experience, especially compared to Gore or the other GOP contenders.

The post-convention bump (or lack thereof) will probably be more telling of what's going on than the current polls.

I asked Jared the same question so please don't take offense. What has Obama done to make you want to support him? Was he your first choice among the nominees from your party? Just asking man,no motive here.

I gotta disagree with your take on Lieberman. I worked for him a couple of years ago and I have conservative views. I never got a tug job. Do you have to be a Republican?

[Feanor]

Anyone see the 60 Minutes interview with Valerie Plame on Sunday? She implied that some of her former assets were killed after Cheney had his aides leak her name to the press. As if the guy's hands weren't soaked in blood already.

[XXXIV]

Anyone see the 60 Minutes interview with Valerie Plame on Sunday? She implied that some of her former assets were killed after Cheney had his aides leak her name to the press. As if the guy's hands weren't soaked in blood already.

I saw a 60 minutes where it wasnt implied...the woman said it straight up that Clinton had threatened her life.

so ...

I think the broads name was Kathleen Wiley?

Im not sure of her name...but she said they wanted to kill her.

so...

[Feanor]

And that affected US National Security how...?

[XXXIV]

And that affected US National Security how...?

Presidents killing their whores?

Guess not...sorry...

My point was that 60 minutes is a f***in show on tv moron!

[XXXIV]

Sorry about the moron part....Very sorry.

[Feanor]

I know what 60 minutes is. If you want to discuss what a decorated CIA spy said in an interview regarding how her career was destroyed by an illegal leak of information from Cheney's office go ahead, but if you just want to indulge your aspergers then try someplace else, thanks.