OT: Elections/Politics thread, part 4

[RobVarak]

Talk about a unique time for a debate...

I'm inclined to think that McCain's natural perceived advantage on foreign policy may be significantly diminished by the fact that he's done little if any debate prep in the last 48 hours. As a McCain supporter, that troubles me, particularly because he was already relying on his expertise to overcome his lack of dynamism behind the mic.

Typically candidates start prepping well in advance, so it's not that he'll be totally cold, but he may be less sharp on the more recent topics, particularly if they talk about the tension with Pakistan, the Russians in Venezuela other events that have happend during the last 3-4 days.

OTOH, I thought Obama did poorly in many of his debates during the primary. His affinity for speechifying can make him appear pedantic when speaking off the cuff, and his slick image doesn't always hold up when he's forced to think on his feet as opposed to delivering prepared text. He's also got a serious problem with "umms..." that I can't believe he didn't conquer in law school.

I'm going to give the slight edge to Obama going in, particularly because the debate audience is likely to be slightly or more pro-Obama and because he's more thoroughly prepped. It's a shame from Obama's perspective that the debate isn't about the economy because he could rally his troops around their perceptions of the last several days' events and beause the first debate is typically more significant than subsequent debates.

Edit: And this FiveThirtyEight analysis of the most recent state polling highlights what's riding on tonight's performance:

McCain gets good numbers in West Virginia and Montana, two states that looked like they might just have been on the verge of being competitive. And although Obama looks as though he's slightly ahead in New Hampshire, it also looks to be polling behind his national numbers -- we project Obama to win New Hampshire by 0.7 points, but the national popular vote by 2.9 points. So if the race tightens up, Obama may no longer be able to bank on New Hampshire's 4 electoral votes.

Still, McCain has very serious problems in Virginia, and extremely serious problems in Michigan, which is starting to drift off the swing state list. And forget about the Pacific Northwest. But at this stage, the electoral math is starting to diminish in importance; McCain needs to make gains everywhere, which means he needs a clutch performance in tonight's debate.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/ ... l#comments

[GTHobbes]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

(CNN) – Prominent conservative columnist Kathleen Parker, an early supporter of Republican VP candidate Sarah Palin, said Friday recent interviews have shown the Alaska governor is "out of her league" and should leave the GOP presidential ticket for the good of the party.

The criticism in Parker's Friday column is the latest in a recent string of negative assessments toward the McCain-Palin candidacy from prominent conservatives.

It was fun while it lasted," Parker writes. "Palin’s recent interviews with Charles Gibson, Sean Hannity, and now Katie Couric have all revealed an attractive, earnest, confident candidate. Who is clearly out of her league."

Palin's interview with Couric drew criticism when the Alaska governor was unable to provide an example of when John McCain had pushed for more regulation of Wall Street during his Senate career. Palin also took heat for defending her foreign policy credentials by suggesting Russian leaders enter Alaska airspace when they come to America. Palin was also criticized last week for appearing not to know what the Bush Doctrine is during an interview with Charlie Gibson.

“If BS were currency, Palin could bail out Wall Street herself," Parker also writes. "If Palin were a man, we’d all be guffawing, just as we do every time Joe Biden tickles the back of his throat with his toes. But because she’s a woman — and the first ever on a Republican presidential ticket — we are reluctant to say what is painfully true."

Parker, who praised McCain's "keen judgment" for picking Palin earlier this month and wrote the Alaska governor is a "perfect storm of God, Mom and apple pie," now says Palin should step down from the ticket.

“Only Palin can save McCain, her party, and the country she loves," Parker writes. She can bow out for personal reasons, perhaps because she wants to spend more time with her newborn. No one would criticize a mother who puts her family first. Do it for your country."

Parker's comments follow those by prominent conservatives David Brooks, George Will, and David Frum who have all publicly questioned Palin's readiness to be vice president.

"Sarah Palin has many virtues," Brooks wrote in a recent column. "If you wanted someone to destroy a corrupt establishment, she'd be your woman. But the constructive act of governance is another matter. She has not been engaged in national issues, does not have a repertoire of historic patterns and, like President Bush, she seems to compensate for her lack of experience with brashness and excessive decisiveness."

[MACTEPsporta]

OTOH, I thought Obama did poorly in many of his debates during the primary. His affinity for speechifying can make him appear pedantic when speaking off the cuff, and his slick image doesn't always hold up when he's forced to think on his feet as opposed to delivering prepared text. He's also got a serious problem with "umms..." that I can't believe he didn't conquer in law school.

You are absolutely right. He does have a tendency to stutter as the crowd cheers, or as he is trying to carefully word his response. I don't think it will be a problem in this debate, however, as the format suggests the moderator will be speaking for 5! minutes giving participants a world of time to think of their answer and respond. Obama is usually good when he gets to take notes.

I also think economy will get a big play tonight. There will be 8 segments altogether, and I'd venture a guess to say that at least 3 or 4 will be focused on economy.

[Naples39]

For all the Palin-mania, she may end up costing McCain the election. If she gets drubbed in the debates, how many independents will still vote for McCain? Speaking personally, complete and utter incompetence by Palin, which I don't think has been shown yet, might be the only thing that gets me to vote for Obama.

[RobVarak]

. He does have a tendency to stutter as the crowd cheers, or as he is trying to carefully word his response. I don't think it will be a problem in this debate, however, as the format suggests the moderator will be speaking for 5! minutes giving participants a world of time to think of their answer and respond. Obama

5 minutes per question? That seems impossible...unless Joe Biden is the moderator

[JackB1]

OTOH, I thought Obama did poorly in many of his debates during the primary. His affinity for speechifying can make him appear pedantic when speaking off the cuff, and his slick image doesn't always hold up when he's forced to think on his feet as opposed to delivering prepared text. He's also got a serious problem with "umms..." that I can't believe he didn't conquer in law school.

I agree. Obama isn't the best at speaking off the cuff, but 99% of the President's speeches while in office won't be off the cuff. And yes, his
"uhhhhs" drive me crazy. It's like 16 year old girls who say "like" every 5th word. But that doesn't mean he can't think on his feet. I think he is over analyzing what he wants to say and the "uuhhhs" give his brain "processing time". On the other hand...when he is prepared, he can be a brilliant, inspiring speaker, as witnessed during his big speech after the Reverend Wright thing and also on the last night of the convention.

McCain on the other hand, has to appear more animated and show some enthusiasm and inflection in his voice. His speeches often find me drifting away and hard to stay focused. He has to find a way to be more interesting and not appear old and out of touch.

Also, let's all remember that the winner of the debates isn't always the winner of the election. The only votes at stake during these debates are the swing voters. Most already committed to their candidates won't change based on these debates.

[MACTEPsporta]

. He does have a tendency to stutter as the crowd cheers, or as he is trying to carefully word his response. I don't think it will be a problem in this debate, however, as the format suggests the moderator will be speaking for 5! minutes giving participants a world of time to think of their answer and respond. Obama

5 minutes per question? That seems impossible...unless Joe Biden is the moderator

LOL. Tomorrow's headlines : Lehrer passes McCain and Obama in the polls!

Moderator will speaking to them for the first five minutes of the ten minute segment, candidates will, obviously, have a chance to respond. Two minutes each, I think. The next five minutes is them going at each other moderator free.

[MACTEPsporta]

Here is an interesting idea on the nature of McCain's thought process.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/ ... stake.html

Was it a razzle-dazzle play designed to distract us from Sarah Palin's poor interview with Katie Couric?

I think it's a little bit of a stretch, there are other ways of detracting attention, that don't make presidential candidate look dumb. Also, it seems that public opinion of Palin has pretty much formed by now, and it will take a major gaffe to have people talk about her in the capacity they did two weeks ago.

[Feanor]

EW has a long interview with Stewart & Colbert about the election and the coverage of it:

http://www.ew.com/ew/article/0,,20228603,00.html

[RobVarak]

EW has a long interview with Stewart & Colbert about the election and the coverage of it:

http://www.ew.com/ew/article/0,,20228603,00.html

Cool.

I'll be posting interviews with my mailman, accountant and dog later this weekend with their thoughts on the election and coverage of it

[XXXIV]

EW has a long interview with Stewart & Colbert about the election and the coverage of it:

http://www.ew.com/ew/article/0,,20228603,00.html

Cool.

I'll be posting interviews with my mailman, accountant and dog later this weekend with their thoughts on the election and coverage of it

Thats bullshit... Why NO interview with your garbage man?

[MACTEPsporta]

You are going to totally discount his opinion just because "he makes a funny?" He is a political insider, just like any other, his delivery is different. That's all. I'd much rather listen to Jon Stewart than most talking heads on FOX, ABC, NBC and CNN combined. If you are going to be completely and utterly partial to one party, I'd prefer it done with humour, rather than with boring claims of false objectivity. And, if I remember correctly, Colbert, had better poll results than Joe Biden at some point.

[XXXIV]

You are going to totally discount his opinion just because "he makes a funny?" He is a political insider,.

I Discount him completely...What makes him an insider?...was he blowing barney frank?

[MACTEPsporta]

You are going to totally discount his opinion just because "he makes a funny?" He is a political insider,.

I Discount him completely...What makes him an insider?...was he blowing barney frank?

He interviews more presidents, VPs, and political leaders than almost anyone in the business.

I don't know about Barney Frank, but him and Adam Sandler...

[XXXIV]

You are going to totally discount his opinion just because "he makes a funny?" He is a political insider,.

I Discount him completely...What makes him an insider?...was he blowing barney frank?

He interviews more presidents, VPs, and political leaders than almost anyone in the business.

True... I still dont see him as an "insider". ..but I do get where you are coming from.

[Feanor]

EW has a long interview with Stewart & Colbert about the election and the coverage of it:

http://www.ew.com/ew/article/0,,20228603,00.html

Cool.

I'll be posting interviews with my mailman, accountant and dog later this weekend with their thoughts on the election and coverage of it

That was probably a lot funnier in your head.

[MACTEPsporta]

Segment 1 - Economy.

Hmm.. I am surprised McCain is so laid back so far. Maybe he just wants to get through economic questions as quickly as possible, before he turns it on. Obama looks very black, for some reason.

Obama keeps calling McCain "John", I wonder if some will view it as disrespectful.

[Teal]

Segment 1 - Economy.

Hmm.. I am surprised McCain is so laid back so far. Maybe he just wants to get through economic questions as quickly as possible, before he turns it on. Obama looks very black, for some reason.

I like his laid back-ness. Don't know what you mean about Obama's 'black' look...

[MACTEPsporta]

Segment 1 - Economy.

Hmm.. I am surprised McCain is so laid back so far. Maybe he just wants to get through economic questions as quickly as possible, before he turns it on. Obama looks very black, for some reason.

I like his laid back-ness. Don't know what you mean about Obama's 'black' look...

His skin looks unusually dark. Maybe it has to do with me watching in online, vs on TV, or maybe it's the background, but it's rather striking.

[Teal]

Segment 1 - Economy.

Hmm.. I am surprised McCain is so laid back so far. Maybe he just wants to get through economic questions as quickly as possible, before he turns it on. Obama looks very black, for some reason.

I like his laid back-ness. Don't know what you mean about Obama's 'black' look...

His skin looks unusually dark. Maybe it has to do with me watching in online, vs on TV, or maybe it's the background, but it's rather striking.

Yeah, that may be it. He looks like he always does on TV-stuttering and talking out of both sides of his face...

[sportdan30]

McCain seems to lack vigor. He looks stiff and his energy level seems low. His monotone speaking abilities leave me rather tired.

EDIT: Ok, I'm a bit mistaken. He has shown some fire.

[FatPitcher]

I didn't see the debate because I had to take care of a traffic ticket. But McCain is up 4 points on Intrade from before the debate, so I'm guessing he didn't do too badly.

Bold prediction: Obama supporters will say Obama won, McCain supporters will say McCain won.

[Teal]

I didn't see the debate because I had to take care of a traffic ticket. But McCain is up 4 points on Intrade from before the debate, so I'm guessing he didn't do too badly.

Bold prediction: Obama supporters will say Obama won, McCain supporters will say McCain won.

Damn, that's one great prediction!

[matthewk]

Obama keeps calling McCain "John", I wonder if some will view it as disrespectful.

Not as disrespectful as it was calling him Jim twice and Tom once.

[Brando70]

McCain looked lost during the economic segment. His schtick like quoting Eisenhower when talking about calling for the firing of the SEC chairman was a real stretch, and the American worker platitudes seemed pretty hollow. He did better when talking about the surge and got more involved during foreign policy.

However, I had to laugh when he talked about forming a league of democracies to address Iran. Um, yes, and we might call it something like a united nations, and within this united nations, we will have a council of security that will help make security decisions.