Launch predictions

[fsquid]

$100 on dinner?? I better be getting blown for dessert!! I am hanging on to my XBOX because it still has some miles in it for me. NBA2K is a fun game offline to me and I enjoy MotoGP on XBL. I also pointed out that I'm digging two PC games now. So $400 compared to $0 is not a bargain for me. Like I said, this is for me.

I like to know where you got those games for free. I agree with you, still too much good stuff on the xbox. If I was to get the xbox 360 at launch, it would prolly set around for 6-8 months before I put it to good use just like all the new systems before.

Forgot about the games. So, I guess it would be $400 v $100 since I might get two games before July.

[sportdan30]

Here are my own personal predictions for launch:

- While at this time I'm toying with the idea of taking the 22nd or 23rd off, it's not in the best interest of my job. Besides, I'm off of work the 24th and 25th.

- Getting any kind of work done on the 21st, 22nd, and 23rd will prove futile.

- Besides the launch of the 360, I'll be pumped to watch the Jayhawks face off against Arizona in the Maui Classic.

- The work day on the 22nd and 23rd will speed by as I read a gazillion impressions from a good 10 games.

- I say right now that while I'm going to purchase the 360 on launch if I have the opportunity, I most likely will not purchase a launch game. Instead I'll hope for a quick turnaround from gamerrang or Hollywood Video.

- Without a launch game in my system, I'll mess around on live and perhaps play some arcade games.

- An hour after playing a few arcade games, I'll run out to the store and buy a launch game, after of course reading rave reviews on one of several particular titles.

Edit: One or both of my kids will be sick on the 22nd and 23rd (heck, lets just say through entire holiday weekend), I won't get to play but an hour of the 360.

[fsquid]

damn, I forgot about the Maui Classic that week. That is going to be a classic tourney. That field is incredible.

[matthewk]

Who determines the PS2 launch a success, who sets the bar for what a success is.

I do.

The PS2 launch was succesful because they purposely limited their quantities.

Sure. And Bugs Bunny shot JFK. They did not short quantities on purpose.

No system seller to you & me, doesn't mean there is not a seller. Again I can't think of one PS2 title that was a system seller, unless you count Madden.

I really don't care if the PS2 had a system seller or not. I was talking about the 360. The Playstation name was enough at that point to sell the PS2.

Non factor, people who can, will buy it. If your deciding factor is whether to get gas this week or buy a 360, playing video games should not be a priority in your life.

It's not mine. I can afford to buy lots of 360s, I just don't think it's worth it. There are however, lots of families where the added burden of gas, heating, medical bills, etc.. does play into their decision to spend over $400 on a new gaming system.

LMAO, yeah big effect.

You don't think some people are going to wait for the PS3? Last time I checkd there were a lot more PS2s out there than Xboxes. Not everyone who games needs to have every console that comes out.

So you don't feel it, honestly neither do I. Don't see how that is a facotr in whether it is succesful. As for gaming reaching it peak, tell Blizzard and the 4 million WOW subscribers that. Seems to me they just proved that a MMO can break the million mark if the product is good.

Not "feeling it" was part of what shapes my opinion on the matter. If a longtime gamer like myself, who bought a PS2, DC, and Xbox in recent years has no urge for the 360, then how many others out there feel the same?

As for the WOW numbers, that already happened. That does not mean that wasn't the peak. Besides, now you are talking online. I'm talking console sales, which includes online and offline. I'm sure more people will move to online gaming, but that does not mean the overall number of gamers has increased, it just means they've moved online from playing by themselves.

[Danimal]

Who determines the PS2 launch a success, who sets the bar for what a success is.

I do.

Oh I see, explains a lot about your prediction

The PS2 launch was succesful because they purposely limited their quantities.

Sure. And Bugs Bunny shot JFK. They did not short quantities on purpose.

We will just disagree here.

No system seller to you & me, doesn't mean there is not a seller. Again I can't think of one PS2 title that was a system seller, unless you count Madden.

I really don't care if the PS2 had a system seller or not. I was talking about the 360. The Playstation name was enough at that point to sell the PS2.

Ah so the fact is the PS2 had no system seller doesn't matter. I guess the Xbox hasn't made enough of a name for itself to sell without a system seller then? I know people who are buying it just for the new Live features, seems like a system selling app is not needed for some.

Non factor, people who can, will buy it. If your deciding factor is whether to get gas this week or buy a 360, playing video games should not be a priority in your life.

It's not mine. I can afford to buy lots of 360s, I just don't think it's worth it. There are however, lots of families where the added burden of gas, heating, medical bills, etc.. does play into their decision to spend over $400 on a new gaming system.

My use of the word your, was not to specify you, I am just saying in general if oil prices being up are the deciding factor whether someone can afford a gaming console, then someones priorities are screwed up

LMAO, yeah big effect.

You don't think some people are going to wait for the PS3? Last time I checkd there were a lot more PS2s out there than Xboxes. Not everyone who games needs to have every console that comes out.

No what I think is most gamers play games and are not loyal to system or brands.
I think the PS3 price has not been announced,
I think the actual system specs that you will get out of the box have not been finalized,
I think no playable games have been shown
I think no release date has been announced and that speculation is it could go well into 2006

So in otherwords, no effect. Are there people who still are "PS2 roxors and Xbox sucks", apparently yes. But those numbers have seriously dwindled, I don't know anyone personally who is still just a PS2 owner and still has that mindset.

So you don't feel it, honestly neither do I. Don't see how that is a facotr in whether it is succesful. As for gaming reaching it peak, tell Blizzard and the 4 million WOW subscribers that. Seems to me they just proved that a MMO can break the million mark if the product is good.

Not "feeling it" was part of what shapes my opinion on the matter. If a longtime gamer like myself, who bought a PS2, DC, and Xbox in recent years has no urge for the 360, then how many others out there feel the same?

I don't know, seems to be plenty of long time gamers on here who are feeling it. Again don't see the relevance here.

As for the WOW numbers, that already happened. That does not mean that wasn't the peak. Besides, now you are talking online. I'm talking console sales, which includes online and offline. I'm sure more people will move to online gaming, but that does not mean the overall number of gamers has increased, it just means they've moved online from playing by themselves.

I simply brought up wow, because in another comment you said perhaps gaming has peaked and people are ready to move on to the next big thing. I think the success of WOW proves that theory incorrect.

[matthewk]

Who determines the PS2 launch a success, who sets the bar for what a success is.

I do.

Oh I see, explains a lot about your prediction

I see I needed to include the winky I started this to post my opinion on what I think will happen. Why do you need to turn it into a debate? Why not just post your own predictions?

I simply brought up wow, because in another comment you said perhaps gaming has peaked and people are ready to move on to the next big thing. I think the success of WOW proves that theory incorrect.

Apparently you do not understand what a prediction is. I am stating what I think the future will be like. I stated that mere hours ago. How can anything that happened prior to that be used to prove this prediction wrong?

I knew I should have just stayed in lurker mode like I've been trying to do lately.

[dbdynsty25]

No winking homos.

[Danimal]

Why do you need to turn it into a debate? Why not just post your own predictions?

You made a post with some pretty bold predictions, I was commenting on them, as did some others. Why is it you have a problem with my comments? No where did I make this personal and if you took it that way I do apologise.

I thought that when someone starts a thread they are looking for conversation / debate whatever, apparently you were looking for people to post their predictions and not comment on yours.

My bad.

[Brando70]

I think the 360's going to succeed unless Sony sells the PS3 at a huge loss. I don't see how that thing comes out for less than $400, and it won't have the extra features of the 360 (hard drive, wireless, etc).

The 360 is a bargain. Is it cheap? No. But to get a new system with cutting-edge graphics, a hard drive, wireless controller and high-def cables for $400 is a pretty good deal. Considering that the PS1 debuted for $299 and sold, this is a much better value.

There is plenty of eye candy for the system to succeed. Madden may not look that special, but they've got shooters and racers that look plenty next-gen. A game like Perfect Dark or CoD2 could easily drive sales. DB's also right about PGR 3 -- Gran Turismo's biggest attraction for most wasn't the depth of cars, but those incredible replays that really pushed the PS1.

Finally, don't underestimate the power of the HD draw. This may be hard to get if you don't have an HDTV, but owners are absolutely ravenous for high def content. The 360 is the first thing out there that can deliver a lot of high def entertainment, and if you're one of the people who have already taken the expensive plunge into HDTV, spending $400 to get the most out of your toy doesn't seem that ridiculous.

[seanmac31]

I think it's very likely that the 360 ends up beating out the PS3 for market share when all is said and done. That said, I'm not sure that how well the system will do out of the gate. I expect it to have a very successful launch with a lot of units moved, but I'm not sure it's going to to hit iPod/PSP status as the latest must-have thing. I haven't seen enough buzz in mainstream news communities about it to make me think otherwise.

I also think there are a good number of gamers who went from PS1 to PS2 and are now going to turn up their noses at anything not named "Playstation," and that the Sony brand loyalty could factor into a less than spectacular launch. But as the months go by and the 360 is churning out high quality titles while the PS3 remains on the distant horizon, I expect some of those gamers to break down and grab a 360.

Basically, I think the launch will be a success without being a smashing success, but that the system will pick up momentum and really take off in the next 6-12 months.

I'll say this much- regardless of what may or may not happen, it's great to see a console launching with a solid selection of games. If I had the money, there are 6-7 games that I would be interested in getting, and you just don't see that very often. Even for the Dreamcast launch, which was loaded in comparison to the PS2, GC or Xbox launches, there were only 3-4 titles that I thought were must-buys.

[Slumberland]

Which of the larger stores like Target and Walmart have protection/replacement plans for their electronics? I know Best Buy does, and I'm intent on insuring the thing. EB or BB might be my only choices in that case...

[Toper]

Which of the larger stores like Target and Walmart have protection/replacement plans for their electronics? I know Best Buy does, and I'm intent on insuring the thing. EB or BB might be my only choices in that case...

God, I would love to be able to purchase the 360 from Costco...they got the best return/exchange policy of any B&M store. Unfortunately, the Costcos in my area really suck when it comes to getting tech stuff (they still haven't gotten any Nanos in!).

[SoMisss2000]

Which of the larger stores like Target and Walmart have protection/replacement plans for their electronics? I know Best Buy does, and I'm intent on insuring the thing. EB or BB might be my only choices in that case...

i'm most definitely buying the extended warranty.

[Zeppo]

I'll say this much- regardless of what may or may not happen, it's great to see a console launching with a solid selection of games. If I had the money, there are 6-7 games that I would be interested in getting, and you just don't see that very often. Even for the Dreamcast launch, which was loaded in comparison to the PS2, GC or Xbox launches, there were only 3-4 titles that I thought were must-buys.

I'm curious: which games are the 6 or 7 you'd be interested in? I am getting the impression there will be very few games available at launch, or even a week or so after. Looks like games like Oblivion, maybe PGR3, and others have joined GR3 in the 'early 2006' window.

Not trying to be a dick here; I have preordered a machine (likely second shipment at best), and am probably the only guy excited about PDZ (though I am wary; oh Rare, what has befallen you?). But I'm still very cloudy on what games will actually be there at launch besides the big kiosk demo numbers (King Kong a week after, CoD), and maybe Madden and some hoops titles, and maybe PDZ, too (it being Rare, that game may not show up until 2009 ).

[dbdynsty25]

PGR3 will have to be a launch title won't it? Same thing with Amped 3...both being MS first party titles and all.

[ScoopBrady]

PGR3 will have to be a launch title won't it? Same thing with Amped 3...both being MS first party titles and all.

Amped 3 is a 2k Sports title now, not MS.

[dbdynsty25]

Oh great...I was actually looking forward to it...hopefully they didn't F with it too much.

[MizzouRah]

Just wait until the system is launched and the 360 talk sweeps across all the forums.

I agree with that statement. As soon as a game comes along that's talked about how good/fun it is, people will go out and get one. I know I'm not the only one who has bought a system because of a game.

[seanmac31]

I'll say this much- regardless of what may or may not happen, it's great to see a console launching with a solid selection of games. If I had the money, there are 6-7 games that I would be interested in getting, and you just don't see that very often. Even for the Dreamcast launch, which was loaded in comparison to the PS2, GC or Xbox launches, there were only 3-4 titles that I thought were must-buys.

I'm curious: which games are the 6 or 7 you'd be interested in? I am getting the impression there will be very few games available at launch, or even a week or so after. Looks like games like Oblivion, maybe PGR3, and others have joined GR3 in the 'early 2006' window.

Not trying to be a dick here; I have preordered a machine (likely second shipment at best), and am probably the only guy excited about PDZ (though I am wary; oh Rare, what has befallen you?). But I'm still very cloudy on what games will actually be there at launch besides the big kiosk demo numbers (King Kong a week after, CoD), and maybe Madden and some hoops titles, and maybe PDZ, too (it being Rare, that game may not show up until 2009 ).

Honestly, I'm not sure what is going to definitely be available at launch, but games that are going to be released right around there- Madden, NBA 2K6, NBA Live 06, NHL 2K6, PDZ, COD2. That's six that I'm very interested in, and I'll probably pick up three out of the six at launch.

[dbdynsty25]

I've definitely got my eyes on NBA 2k6, NHL 2k6, Madden, PGR3 and Amped 3. If I can get three of those at launch, I will be happy.

[matthewk]

Why do you need to turn it into a debate? Why not just post your own predictions?

You made a post with some pretty bold predictions, I was commenting on them, as did some others. Why is it you have a problem with my comments? No where did I make this personal and if you took it that way I do apologise.

I thought that when someone starts a thread they are looking for conversation / debate whatever, apparently you were looking for people to post their predictions and not comment on yours.

My bad.

Your're right. I was hoping to see more of other people's predictions than an in depth analysis of mine. I guess I'm just tiring of the constant debating that goes on here lately. I don't mind debate, but I don't want to see it erupt in every thread.

It's all good (There's another winky for 'ya DB).

[pk500]

Just wait until the system is launched and the 360 talk sweeps across all the forums.

I agree with that statement. As soon as a game comes along that's talked about how good/fun it is, people will go out and get one. I know I'm not the only one who has bought a system because of a game.

No doubt. Remember how many people jumped on the PSP bandwagon after it was released and the buzz ignited? This will be a similar sensation, times five.

Take care,
PK

[fsquid]

thank goodness I will be away from a CPU around Thanksgiving

[blueduke]

What do you guys think will happen to the Xbox after the 360 launch---I'm not talking immediately after but say 6-12 months down the road? I don't think MS will support it very much but will the EA's or 2Ksports people still be making stuff for it by the end of 2006? If the 360 proves to be half of what it's touted, the Xbox could see a rather quick demise could it not? with game makers budgets so stretched now how many systems could an EA support?

[dbdynsty25]

How long did the Playstation hang around after the PS2 was released? It was at least a few years. Sure, the amount of games released for it doesn't increase or anything, but it'll still be supported in some way, shape or form.