OT: Election/Politics thread, Part 6

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Teal
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Post by Teal »

JRod wrote:The reasons for dispelling global warming are mostly ludicrous from not enough evidence, to well the earth cycles, to I don't believe in global warming because I hate Al Gore.


Science very rarely can with absolute certainty prove a theory. That's science. Something as complex as global warming with millions of different variable will never be an absolute.

However to say that humans impact is nominal or there is none, is ludicrous.

The fact remains that those in opposition do not have the amount of science behind them to back "their" claim.
Right. :roll: It COULDN'T POSSIBLY be something as natural as, say, the sun, now, could it? Nope...we HAVE to, MUST blame it all on the SUVs, oil companies, industry, coal, campfires, animal farts, styrofoam cups, hairspray, A/C units, and all the evil bastards that use them. Yep...that's MUCH more believable... :lol:

http://www.newsweekly.com.au/articles/2 ... cover.html
Last edited by Teal on Tue Jan 06, 2009 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by GTHobbes »

Teal wrote:
GTHobbes wrote:Matt, just curious, what kind've studies or evidence would it take for you to accept that humans are mostly (or even partly) responsible? Is there anything that could change your mind on this?
Let's turn this around, GT: What kind of studies or evidence would it take for you to accept that humans are NOT mostly (or even partly) responsible? Is there anything that could change your mind on this?
Teal...I already answered this above. I'm reading the link that 34 just posted and will get back to you.
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Post by Teal »

GTHobbes wrote:
Teal wrote:
GTHobbes wrote:Matt, just curious, what kind've studies or evidence would it take for you to accept that humans are mostly (or even partly) responsible? Is there anything that could change your mind on this?
Let's turn this around, GT: What kind of studies or evidence would it take for you to accept that humans are NOT mostly (or even partly) responsible? Is there anything that could change your mind on this?
Teal...I already answered this above. I'm reading the link that 34 just posted and will get back to you.
Yes, you did. Didn't read quite far enough.
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Teal
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Post by Teal »

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Post by Feanor »

You're going to have to do better than a blog post by an agricultural economist from the ultra-conservative Hudson institute who co-wrote a book about global warming with the oil industry's hired gun Fred Singer. The same Fred Singer who in 1994 called the risks of passive smoking "junk science." :lol:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... /#more-373
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Post by GameSeven »

wco81 wrote:
GameSeven wrote: I'm just skeptical of doomsday scenarios espoused by those whose financial position stands to benefit from impassioned acceptance of their claims. Especially when so much uncertainty applies to their models and other potentially significant factors don't merit inclusion in the models at all.
Who are these people who stand to benefit?

Are you talking about people who own renewable energy companies?

Or those who trade carbon credits?

If you want to talk about economic stakes of the people involved in this debate, there is nobody who's got as much at stake as the energy companies, which include the most profitable corporations in the history of mankind.

The researchers on the IPCC are not being funded by any industry (renewable energy firms, investment banks which are trading carbon credits), as far as I know, unless you have specific information indicating otherwise.
I don't keep a dossier on all members of the GW movement like many seem to have for the skeptics. But if you want to believe that only the energy companies and other skeptics have a horse in this race, then go right ahead.
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Post by JRod »

Teal wrote:
JRod wrote:The reasons for dispelling global warming are mostly ludicrous from not enough evidence, to well the earth cycles, to I don't believe in global warming because I hate Al Gore.


Science very rarely can with absolute certainty prove a theory. That's science. Something as complex as global warming with millions of different variable will never be an absolute.

However to say that humans impact is nominal or there is none, is ludicrous.

The fact remains that those in opposition do not have the amount of science behind them to back "their" claim.
Right. :roll: It COULDN'T POSSIBLY be something as natural as, say, the sun, now, could it? Nope...we HAVE to, MUST blame it all on the SUVs, oil companies, industry, coal, campfires, animal farts, styrofoam cups, hairspray, A/C units, and all the evil bastards that use them. Yep...that's MUCH more believable... :lol:

http://www.newsweekly.com.au/articles/2 ... cover.html
Well then by your logic it could just as well be those things.


I don't even know how this is an issue, it's not like we are being taxed, or our civil liberties are infringed upon. Going green isn't a bad thing. However the technology is so far behind because of the lack of funds that renewable energy needs to be profitable. Now government investment is needed but more than likely a Steve Jobs or a Bill Gates of the world will come along and do this through private means.

Anyway, I don't understand why people even fight this. It's more out of spite than anything else.

I'll take science over forum posters most days out of the week. :)
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Post by matthewk »

JRod wrote:I don't even know how this is an issue, it's not like we are being taxed, or our civil liberties are infringed upon.
You were saying...

Cow tax:
http://www.businessandmedia.org/article ... 65231.aspx

Banning bonfires:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/366 ... ire06.html
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Post by GTHobbes »

JRod wrote: Going green isn't a bad thing.

Anyway, I don't understand why people even fight this. It's more out of spite than anything else.
That's what I can't figure out. Unless you're heavily invested in the energy industry, what difference does it make if your cars runs on gas or something else? Maybe it would even do the economy some good by making the change to some of these other products (create jobs, etc.).

Then again, maybe the Senate minority report that 34 posted is right...I still need to give it a good reading.
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Post by matthewk »

Feanor wrote:I wasn't trying to prove global warming was caused by humans when I originally posted the NSIDC links about the Arctic sea ice that casued you to shout about 30 years of data.
I'm not even sure what you are trying to prove here anymore, other than you want to badly win an argument that you now state you are not even arguing.

Three pages of debate later, and you now come up with "that's not what I was trying to prove". :?
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Post by Teal »

Feanor wrote:You're going to have to do better than a blog post by an agricultural economist from the ultra-conservative Hudson institute who co-wrote a book about global warming with the oil industry's hired gun Fred Singer. The same Fred Singer who in 1994 called the risks of passive smoking "junk science." :lol:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... /#more-373
Right. I'll see if I can find some ultra-liberal who doesn't believe in this Don Quixote hooey....


...nope...



...not yet...


...still trying...


...this is hopeless...


...of course, I knew that going in...

further proof that this nonsense is political in nature, especially the 'man made' crap. You won't give a conservative, who may very well be smarter than you, the time of day-just people who agree with your ideology. Don't give me any more crap about my political leanings, as if you have none, and as if they don't color every stinking aspect of your thought processes... :roll:
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Post by Feanor »

The IPCC and and the NSIDC aren't ultraliberals, just scientists whose conclusions you reject because of ideology. In the other thread I already gave the example of New Zealand's Prime Minister who leads a center-right party, but is still committed to the Kyoto Protocol and accepts that global greenhouse gas emissions need to be within the range of 450-55O parts per million to stabilise climate change.

My political leanings are that I've voted for the center-right party every time I've ever voted. In other countries, being on the right of the political spectrum doesn't automatically make you politically incapable of accepting the scientific consensus on climate change.
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Post by Brando70 »

GameSeven wrote:I don't keep a dossier on all members of the GW movement like many seem to have for the skeptics. But if you want to believe that only the energy companies and other skeptics have a horse in this race, then go right ahead.
There are certainly people who will benefit economically. But does that discredit the science?

Look, every situation attracts people seeking to exploit it for financial and other gain. It's inevitable.

That's why it's important to look at the data. Most people who are educuated in this field believe that humans are having an effect on global temperatures. Like I said before, that doesn't make them right.

The trick is that this is a hedge bet for a number of reasons. We don't have a huge amount of data -- this isn't like evolution where there's a century and a half of evidence proving the theory. It's also a very complex issue in terms of the variables that could be affecting warming, and it could be very expensive, because our energy and industrial infrastructures were designed to be as cheap as possible, not environmentally friendly.

However, there's the case of what happens with no or minimal action. If the changes do happen, and we have even modest rises in sea level or changes in climate (especially those that produce more extreme conditions, such as prolonged droughts), there are serious reprecussions for human civilzation. Because the environment is complex and obviously difficult to influence, it requires action sooner rather than later if we want to avoid the more serious effects. There are also the side benefits of having less pollution, transitioning to renewable energy sources, and so on.

I see this as similar to the ozone layer. There was strong evidence that CFCs were affecting the ozone. Western countries changed their CFC policies, and in a relatively short period of time, that hole appears to have shrunk and is not really a problem any more. I think there is enough evidence to suggest that humans can have a significant impact on the environment, both pro and con, if there are large-scale processes creating or reducing pollution.
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Post by Feanor »

matthewk wrote:
Feanor wrote:I wasn't trying to prove global warming was caused by humans when I originally posted the NSIDC links about the Arctic sea ice that casued you to shout about 30 years of data.
I'm not even sure what you are trying to prove here anymore, other than you want to badly win an argument that you now state you are not even arguing.

Three pages of debate later, and you now come up with "that's not what I was trying to prove". :?
It's your own fault for not being able to follow a logical argument. :roll: Teal claims the polar bears are "fine", and laughs at the Dept. of the Interior putting polar bears on the endangered list, because of 'shrinking of Arctic Ice'. I proved with the NSIDC and other links, that the Arctic ice is still on a declining trend despite a slight increase in Arctic sea-ice extent this year, something which also happened in 2006 before it plunged to a record low in 2007.

But you start repeating over and over that there is no evidence that global warming is anthropogenic, and yet when I directly link to the IPCC report which explains in great detail why they conclude that there is, you chicken out and don't even read and respond to it.

Again it's Topic 2, page 13:

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-repor ... r4_syr.pdf
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Post by Feanor »

Brando70 wrote:I see this as similar to the ozone layer. There was strong evidence that CFCs were affecting the ozone.
Fred Singer denied that one, too. :)
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Post by XXXIV »

Brando70 wrote: There are certainly people who will benefit economically. But does that discredit the science?

.
Hard to discredit this science. It has a goon squad.


EPA Chief Vows to Probe E-mail Threatening to
‘Destroy’ Career of Climate Skeptic


During today’s hearing, Senator James Inhofe (R-OK), Ranking Member of the Environment and Public Works Committee, confronted Stephen Johnson, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), with a threatening e-mail from a group of which EPA is currently a member. The e-mail threatens to “destroy” the career of a climate skeptic. Michael T. Eckhart, president of the environmental group the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE), wrote in an email on July 13, 2007 to Marlo Lewis, senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI):

“It is my intention to destroy your career as a liar. If you produce one more editorial against climate change, I will launch a campaign against your professional integrity. I will call you a liar and charlatan to the Harvard community of which you and I are members. I will call you out as a man who has been bought by Corporate America. Go ahead, guy. Take me on."

In a July 16, Washington Times article, Eckhart confirmed that he did indeed write the email.


http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm? ... F02278F4CF

There are many who dont buy this fantasy, but, man they better watch their asses when they speak.

Again the link where you can find links to scientists who have different views. Check em out while you are still allowed. FASCISM LIVES!

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm? ... 63dc2d02cb
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Post by Teal »

These guys must be oil company neo cons:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC0704/S00023.htm
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Post by Feanor »

Nope, just partially funded and supported by them:

http://www.listener.co.nz/issue/3541/co ... t_hot.html

Doesn't seem to be nearly as dodgy as the case below, though.
Last edited by Feanor on Tue Jan 06, 2009 7:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by GTHobbes »

34, it looks like the guy who got that email was, indeed, an industry hack:

"Now lets look at Cooler Heads themselves. This group was begun on May 6, 1997 and their stated purpose was "To dispel the myths of global warming by exposing flawed economic, scientific and risk analysis." Cooler Heads was formed as a project of the "The Competitive Enterprise Institute" and was originally chaired by former CEI director Marlo Lewis and directed by CEI Director of Global Warming Myron Ebell.

According to Source Watch and Exxon Secrets Organization, CEI has received over 2 Million Dollars of funding from Exxon Mobile from 1998 through 2005 either through corporate giving or through their foundation. Information on CEI can be found at EXXON SECRETS - FactSheet or at Source Watch - Competitive Enterprise Institute And Global Warming. I could go on , however I hope that by now even the most strident right-wingers can see the light of day where this multi-armed group of nay-sayers is concerned."

http://thesaltysailor.com/global-warmin ... iction.htm
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Post by Jared »

Teal,

John McCain thinks there is global warming and he's a republican. My guess, without looking is that other moderate Republicans that hold similar positions.
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Post by bdoughty »

Jared wrote:Teal,

John McCain thinks there is global warming and he's a republican. My guess, without looking is that other moderate Republicans that hold similar positions.
And he has done a terrific job over the years trying to stop it.

http://www.americanprogressaction.org/i ... ecord.html

I think he was just trying to appease the "greenies" in a hope that he could steal a few votes. It is pretty hard to argue against his voting record (or his absence on numerous votes) to say he was a big global warming supporter.
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Post by XXXIV »

GTHobbes wrote:34, it looks like the guy who got that email was, indeed, an industry hack:

"Now lets look at Cooler Heads themselves. This group was begun on May 6, 1997 and their stated purpose was "To dispel the myths of global warming by exposing flawed economic, scientific and risk analysis." Cooler Heads was formed as a project of the "The Competitive Enterprise Institute" and was originally chaired by former CEI director Marlo Lewis and directed by CEI Director of Global Warming Myron Ebell.

According to Source Watch and Exxon Secrets Organization, CEI has received over 2 Million Dollars of funding from Exxon Mobile from 1998 through 2005 either through corporate giving or through their foundation. Information on CEI can be found at EXXON SECRETS - FactSheet or at Source Watch - Competitive Enterprise Institute And Global Warming. I could go on , however I hope that by now even the most strident right-wingers can see the light of day where this multi-armed group of nay-sayers is concerned."

http://thesaltysailor.com/global-warmin ... iction.htm
Lets say for a sec he is a "hack"...
There is no place for XXXIV style emails :wink:

The links list 650 dissenting scientists...alot of hacks..

http://www.m4gw.com:2005/m4gw/2008/12/6 ... er_ma.html

Many more emails to write...

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15938.html

The point is that there is NO consensus.
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Post by XXXIV »

bdoughty wrote:I think he was just trying to appease the "greenies" in a hope that he could steal a few votes.
John McCain and Neville Chamberlain. History's great appeasers. :lol:
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Post by Teal »

Jared wrote:Teal,

John McCain thinks there is global warming and he's a republican. My guess, without looking is that other moderate Republicans that hold similar positions.
John McCain is not a conservative. So what do I care? And even if he was, I'd simply say he'd be a duped conservative.
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Post by Feanor »

XXXIV wrote: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15938.html

The point is that there is NO consensus.
That links says:
The National Academy of Sciences and most major scientific bodies agree that global warming is caused by man-made carbon emissions. But a small, growing number of scientists, including D’Aleo, are questioning how quickly the warming is happening and whether humans are actually the leading cause.
Consensus doesn't mean universal agreement. Your point is invalid.
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