The Official Console Talk Thread

[wco81]

PS3 is suppose to see a move to the 65 nm process this year.

Does the average person in the console market even know what the f*ck this means? Better yet, do they even care unless it results in a price drop or a sudden flood of new games on the market for the PS3?

No.

Take care,
PK

Pay attention to the discussion. I was responding to Dave speculating about a possible price cut but Dave said it cost them too much to do a price cut.

People in this forum are not average people in the console market. Some of them know process shrinkages are the main factors in reducing the price of consoles. That is why the PS2 Slim is priced way lower than the original PS2 design.

[wco81]

Does anybody know if the NPD numbers account for returns? I'm just curious because I'd guess around 10-15% of PS3's bought before Christmas were returned by the Ebay/Craigslist crowd when they couldn't unload them.

I don't know about returns but NPD numbers are statistical samples. They have arrangements with many chains to get their POS data but there are some chains from which they don't get sales data, most notably Wal Mart.

Based on historical figures, it's estimated that NPD only accounts for about 80% of total sales -- not sure it that's retail sales or all sales including online.

NPD also probably omits Sony Style sales, some of which had more allocations than other chains in the first month.

[Dave]

I knew the 360 was going to a smaller chip soon, but I didn't know anything about Sony. But how long will Sony be willing to sell the PS3 at a $100-200 loss?

The PS2's sales continue to amaze me. Yes, they are much cheaper than the other consoles, but at what point does the mass market care about paying more for the advanced features of the PS3/360/Wii? And how much more are they willing to pay?

One reason I think Guitar Hero II is such a huge title for the 360 is that it is one of the first games that will be an obvious grab to the elusive (to MS) non-hardcore gaming crowd.

[pk500]

Pay attention to the discussion. I was responding to Dave speculating about a possible price cut but Dave said it cost them too much to do a price cut.

People in this forum are not average people in the console market. Some of them know process shrinkages are the main factors in reducing the price of consoles. That is why the PS2 Slim is priced way lower than the original PS2 design.

Fair enough. I learned something.

Take care,
PK

[matthewk]

360 > Wii + PS3

And the PS2 > 360.

And $129 > $299/$399....

Wii = $250
360 = $399 (or $299)
PS3 = $599 (or $499)

So why bother comparing ANY of the consoles to each other if we can't compare the PS2 because if it's price? They are all selling at different price points. Using that kind of logic, I guess we can't compare the Wii to the 360 or PS3 because of graphical ability. Then, we can't compare the 360 to PS3 because Live it not like Sony's online offerings, and so on.

[wco81]

More on the NPD numbers and reactions to them.

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6164106.html

[DivotMaker]

As for Carmack, he doesn't even like multicore CPUs, so he's probably not a big fan of the tricore CPU in the X360 either. I've never bought a single ID game and if I'm not mistaken, the console versions of Quake, Doom, etc. have never done anything. For every Carmack, there are at least a half-dozen other developers, used to console development, who have no problems with parallel and multi-core architectures.

The point of bringing up Carmacks' comments was to highlight his opinions regarding how much more mature and easy to use MS has made the 360 development tools. Not once did he say he disliked multicore CPU's, he just questioned Sony's decision to use an asymmetrical one.

And lets be clear here, multi-core cpu's just hit the market less than a year ago. The multi-core CPUs for consoles have been out longer since the 360 and now PS3 have shipped. I don't think Carmacks questioning of Sony's decision discredits his opinions about their development tools nor his abilities to program for multi-core cpus.

In fact, get ready for this, the next generation of CPUs for consoles are more likely to resemble the Cell than the traditional architectures Carmack favors. Or else they will get left behind in performance.

In a couple of years when/if both Sony and MS begin dropping hints about their successors to PS3/360, then we can discuss what kinds of CPU architectures will be available. The change in the CPU industry in just the past year should tell us that we really don't know what is going to happen that far into the future. It is WAY too early to be speculating on this subject, IMO.

[Danimal]

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?optio ... 1&Itemid=2


Good a place as any, not sure if this would inidcated good sales or low sales of the HD-DVD, but there it is for those that care.

[DivotMaker]

PS3 is suppose to see a move to the 65 nm process this year.

Does the average person in the console market even know what the f*ck this means? Better yet, do they even care unless it results in a price drop or a sudden flood of new games on the market for the PS3?

No.

Take care,
PK

Pay attention to the discussion. I was responding to Dave speculating about a possible price cut but Dave said it cost them too much to do a price cut.

People in this forum are not average people in the console market. Some of them know process shrinkages are the main factors in reducing the price of consoles. That is why the PS2 Slim is priced way lower than the original PS2 design.

Sony's move to .65 nm might be newsworthy if they were in a position to take real advantage of the transition. Losing $240-350 per console today means that they have a LONG WAY to go towards even reaching "break even". If you want to tell us that the PS3 will be about $200 in 5-7 years, then I might buy that because that is what happened to the PS2, but it took 5-6 YEARS to get to that point. Sony needs help NOW, not next year, not 3-5 years from now....

[wco81]

Here is what I read:

Carmack revisited his famous comments at QuakeCon two years ago, where he blasted the industry for forcing programmers to move to a multicore processing model. With the advancement in developer tools since that time, he has softened his stance somewhat, although he still maintains that a faster single core CPU would have been better for the industry. But as he admits, "life didn't turn out like that" and game developers will have no choice but to go multicore to keep up.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070111-8601.html

Carmack is a very influential developer in PC gaming. But he's just one of the crowd in console gaming.

[wco81]

I don't think anyone outside of Sony really knows how much they're making or losing per unit.

Really I don't care, as long as they keep getting games released for the system, which is a function of how well the consoles sell, which in turn depends partly on the pricing, which finally is based on their costs.

If they cut the price by $100 or even $200 by the end of this year, I would be disappointed that I paid launch price. But unless the price cut happens within the next two months, I will have gotten enough entertainment value out of it.

When I was 18, $100 or $200 price cut was huge. Now, it's big but it's not going to break me.

[DivotMaker]

Here is what I read:

Carmack revisited his famous comments at QuakeCon two years ago, where he blasted the industry for forcing programmers to move to a multicore processing model. With the advancement in developer tools since that time, he has softened his stance somewhat, although he still maintains that a faster single core CPU would have been better for the industry. But as he admits, "life didn't turn out like that" and game developers will have no choice but to go multicore to keep up.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070111-8601.html

Carmack is a very influential developer in PC gaming. But he's just one of the crowd in console gaming.

That is as of today. In a couple of years, who knows what architectures CPU's will come in. Carmack is very influential across the entire gaming industry. When you have sold millions and millions of copies of software, people will stop and listen to what you have to say. Lets try not to dismiss his importance and standing in the gaming community, especially since he and iD are working on a console title (new content) for the 360/PS3.

[DivotMaker]

I don't think anyone outside of Sony really knows how much they're making or losing per unit.

Really I don't care, as long as they keep getting games released for the system, which is a function of how well the consoles sell, which in turn depends partly on the pricing, which finally is based on their costs.

If they cut the price by $100 or even $200 by the end of this year, I would be disappointed that I paid launch price. But unless the price cut happens within the next two months, I will have gotten enough entertainment value out of it.

When I was 18, $100 or $200 price cut was huge. Now, it's big but it's not going to break me.

Sony stated last November that the PS3 launch would cost them a quarterly loss of $1.7 billion by the end of that quarter. THEIR projections. So I think they are hemorrhaging profusely when you also consider that they had to arifreight in many of the PS3's that just made it at the end of the year and now. Are you aware how expensive air-freighting is and what a damper that puts on your profitablity?

I would be completely shocked if they were able to drop the price $100 this year. After all, this is the same company who stated that the number of games were not that important because people would buy a PS3 simply because it was a PLAYSTATION. I would be even more shocked if they dropped prices within a couple of months. If they do, they will do so out of desperation, not because they are producing more cost-effective units....

[wco81]

Lot of developers envy his success.

I'm not dismissing him, just that his games on consoles haven't really had the same impact so why should he be taken so seriously on console development? It's obvious that all his console games so far have been ports, afterthoughts to the PC versions.

Like I said, there are plenty of console developers who are more enthusiastic about working on these exotic architectures. Do they think it's the ideal environment? No, but they do see the intellectual challenge and adapting to the new, especially if they're not so tied to PC games development.

[wco81]

I don't own SNE stock so hemmorage away.

As long as they're able to draw enough development support and continue to support the console, I don't care.

If they were in a position like Sega was 6 years ago, sure there would be reason to be concerned about buying a $600 console which may see games for it dry up.

But you know that isn't going to happen.

[DivotMaker]

I don't own SNE stock so hemmorage away.

As long as they're able to draw enough development support and continue to support the console, I don't care.

If they were in a position like Sega was 6 years ago, sure there would be reason to be concerned about buying a $600 console which may see games for it dry up.

But you know that isn't going to happen.

I personally don't care either as I own no stock and no longer own a PS3. However, if you don't think they are in trouble right now, I would beg to differ with you. I don't see Sony going away, but they have some pretty tough times coming before they begin to claw their way back into competition. When they have clawed their way back from the hole they are in now and their product is competitive with the 360, I will buy another PS3 and very likely feel MUCH BETTER about the investment then....

[DivotMaker]

Market analysts comments and more NPD information regarding PS3....

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=22215

"The PlayStation brand doesn't appear to be helping the PS3. If NPD's numbers are correct, there are over 300K PS3s on retail shelves. That is not good for a console launch of only a million and it's not good for publishers with PS3 software."

[10spro]

If you have a PS2 you can trade it towards a PS3, worth $100.

http://www.gamestop.com/gs/weeklyad/cur ... e%5Ftest=1&

[Wilk5280]

PS2 + Sony Brand Controller + 8 MB memory card to get 100 dollars credit?

They can lick my ballsack

[wco81]

Well I sold my PS2 package, including memory card, network adapter and a couple of other knick-knacks, for $90 on craigslist.

Little did I know how popular the PS2 still was but the thing was over 6 years old (although it worked flawlessly).

But it was going to collect dust otherwise as I was going to play PS2 games on the PS3.

[wco81]

Sony claims 2 million PS3s, shipped, as they ship 1 million to Japan. Faster to the 2-million milestone than previous Playstations:

http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/release/pdf/070116e.pdf

They must be buying them for the Blu-Ray because there's no major games releases slated for awhile. VF5 is due in Feb. but that's not really a system-seller in the US.

[Naples39]

HARSH criticism on PS3 by Valve co-founder;
http://www.mcvuk.com/Valve-boss-blows-a-gasket-over-PS3

I’d say, even at this late date, they should just cancel it and do a ‘do over’. Just say, ‘This was a horrible disaster and we’re sorry and we’re going to stop selling this and stop trying to convince people to develop for it.’”

Kind of over-the-top, even for the biggest cynic.


Also some interesting thoughts that developers are just beginning to tap the potential of wii remote;
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=22227

Personally I think the controller is capable of translating actions far more complex and energetic than most players are interested in performing even in the privacy of their own homes

[RandyM]

I pretty much agreed to the gist of this article:

http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/silico ... 491098.htm

[Spooky]

PS2 + Sony Brand Controller + 8 MB memory card to get 100 dollars credit?

They can lick my ballsack

Why? What is bad about that offer? A brand new PS2 is what...$120 now?

[webdanzer]

PS2 + Sony Brand Controller + 8 MB memory card to get 100 dollars credit?

They can lick my ballsack

Why? What is bad about that offer? A brand new PS2 is what...$120 now?

Yeah, that seems like one of their better offers lately. I guess they need to move those ps3's off their shelves!