jLp vAkEr0 wrote:As a Celtics fan I'm just bathing in excitement.
![Very Happy :D](./images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif)
As young as Brown and Tatum are, Celtics may have to win between now and when Brown becomes an RFA in June/July of 2020.
After this season, they have to decide on whether to keep Smart, which could be a tough decision, depending on if he gets other offers, though it's good for the Celtics that there are a few teams with cap space.
But after the 2018-2019 season, it starts to get really difficult. Rozier is due and Kyrie and Horford both have player options:
http://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/yearly/cap/
If Kyrie opts-in at 21.3 million for for 2019-2020 and Horford opts in at $34.2 million for that season, it's still a lot of money that the Celtics are going to have to pay Kyrie, Horford and whatever they give to Rozier. Say they give him $10 million that year. So it would be $65 million for Kyrie, Rozier and Horford for 2019-2020 season.
But if Kyrie has another all-star year next season, $21.3 is too little for him so he'd likely opt out. For Horford, $34.2 million for 2019-2020 is a healthy salary but he may have been the best Celtics player in the playoffs. He will be 33 on 6/3/19 so he may want another big payday. If he has a poor season next year, then he'll obviously opt in. But if he's a key starter on another team which wins at least 55 games and makes a deep run in the playoffs, he's going to probably ask for $30 million for a couple more seasons.
Do the Celtics extend him at age 33 or would he have to say sign for $15-20 million a year? For him, taking that much less would just be saving the ownership luxury taxes. They don't need him to take a big cut to bring in some big free agent.
So June and July of 2019 will be a big offseason for the team.
Then after 2019-2020, Brown will be an RFA. He's on a path to get the kind of deal that Wiggins got. He'd either have to suffer a serious injury or be willing to take a lot less than what the market would bear. I don't know how many teams will have cap space but the way he's produced this year, he's on a path to become an all star in the next couple of seasons.
Also Hayward will have a player option for 2020-2021 at $34.2 million. If he returns from injury and plays well the next couple of seasons, he could well opt out and look for the super Max. Whether he opts in or out, it's going to be expensive for the Celtics either way for 2020-2021.
June 2020 could be another big offseason if Kyrie and Horford didn't opt out in June 2019.
Then after 2020-2021 Tatum will be an RFA. Like Brown, barring injury, he's going to get at least $25 million a year if not more. He's also on the way towards all-star level seasons.
Team could pay all these players and go for rings for the next 3-8 years. But if you don't pay Kyrie, Horford and Hayward a cent more than they're making this season, which is $76-78 million, you're going to have to give 8-figure salaries to Brown and Tatum for sure after 2 and 3 more seasons and possibly Smart starting next year and Rozier starting the following year.
$20 million each to Brown and Tatum, $10 million each to Smart and Rozier and you're talking around $120 million for these 7 players. And those are very conservative salaries for them. They will likely demand more from the Celtics and get them from other teams.
You could argue that Celtics have to win between now and when Brown becomes RFA. Team could pay luxury taxes to keep him but it really depends on what happens with Kyrie and Horford, what kind of extensions they take and to a lesser extent, how much they pay to keep Smart and Rozier.
The owner may have said "whatever it takes" but if they draft rookies over the next couple of years who perform well, it seems likely the team will let some players go or try to trade them.