Launch predictions

[matthewk]

Less than 3 weeks to go until the 360 launches. I've read all kinds of threads, articles, previews, news reports, etc.. lately. Here's my prediction on what will transpire.

The launch will be a hailed as a success, with lots of people waiting outside stores waiting for them them to open. However, I don't think it will be on the same scale as the PS2 or even the Dreamcast launch. Small packets of mobs mixed in with stores that will have a stack or 360s waiting to be sold.

The Ebay effect will cause people to hoard these in the hopes of making a killing. It will work, as impulsive, panicked buyers will pay over 2x the retail price to get one, even as they are readily available on store shelves.

There will be a few launch day stories on sites like CNN and MSN, but the fever will die down quickly. MS will claim victory, and sales will be strong, but nowhere near the record proportions of the PS2. I can see spot shortages, but if you want one for Christmas you'll be able to find one.

I base these predictions on a few things:
1) There really does not seem to be a real system seller. Madden is madden, but nothing special. Kameo looks good, but it too niche market to attract the masses. The rest are all rehashes, other than King Kong.

2) The price. After paying $3 a gallon for gas, and the threat of high heating costs, fringe buyers will be scared off by the $400 proces tag and $60 games. A lot will probably cave by Christmas, since we Americans tend to use that holiday as an excuse to buy whatever we want, no matter the cost.

3) The PS3 effect.

4) Personally, I'm just not feeling the pull to get one. Maybe I'm getting older. I still loves gaming, even if it's drifted awway from sports titles lately. I just don't have that "got to have it" urge I had with the D, PS2, or Xbox. Gaming got huge the past few years, but I think it's reached it's peak. At some point (a certain percentage of) people will tire of video games and move on to the next big thing. I believe we've reached that plateau.

So that's what my crystal ball is telling me. It will be fun to revisit this in January and see if I'm right on or just crazy.

[fsquid]

I don't have the pull either to get one. I'm loving Football Manager 06 and PES5 on the PC, having a great time in my NBA season on the regular XBOX. I'm thinking next July I'll get one in time for NCAA football. Plus, I have a squidlet in the oven for April.

[nyisles16]

you have said some well thought statements.. who knows if this shortage stuff will be rampant or not.. as far as tiring from gaming, i started to wain a little, (strickly now down to the xbox), but some of the titles to come out recently (far cry, battlefront 2, battlefield 2) combined with playing "buddies" i have made, have rekindled me.. as far as the "next gen", i will wait for it - still plenty of good games to come out for box coming up (for me, cant wait for college baseball & king kong)...

[anchester]

The 360 is huge for anyone w/ HDTV. It's the first real system to move into next gen HD graphix. People w/ these expensive sets will find a $400 system a bargain. Also, I imagine the 360 will drive HDTV sales to some extent.

However, I do agree that after all HDTV owners buy one right away, there will be a big lull until price drops to 299 in fall on of 2006.

[dbdynsty25]

The system seller will be PGR3...pretty much the same way it was with the original Xbox (along with Halo of course).

[ScoopBrady]

1) There really does not seem to be a real system seller. Madden is madden, but nothing special. Kameo looks good, but it too niche market to attract the masses. The rest are all rehashes, other than King Kong.

Perfect Dark Zero will be the system seller and never underestimate the power of Madden on a new console.

2) The price. After paying $3 a gallon for gas, and the threat of high heating costs, fringe buyers will be scared off by the $400 proces tag and $60 games. A lot will probably cave by Christmas, since we Americans tend to use that holiday as an excuse to buy whatever we want, no matter the cost.

Americans typically don't hold back when it comes to spending money on entertainment. I would venture to guess that as a country we spend the most on entertainment.

3) The PS3 effect.

What PS3 effect? Only gamers know about the PS3 in the distant future. The 360 has already made a splash with the average consumer by having a big contest tied in with Mountain Dew and a tv special on MTV.

4) Personally, I'm just not feeling the pull to get one. Maybe I'm getting older. I still loves gaming, even if it's drifted awway from sports titles lately. I just don't have that "got to have it" urge I had with the D, PS2, or Xbox. Gaming got huge the past few years, but I think it's reached it's peak. At some point (a certain percentage of) people will tire of video games and move on to the next big thing. I believe we've reached that plateau.

Did you feel the pull for a PSP? That launch was successful. Gaming hasn't peaked and won't be fading away any time soon. It generates more money per year than movies. You might not feel the pull now but I'd be willing to bet you will. Just wait until the system is launched and the 360 talk sweeps across all the forums.

[dbdynsty25]

you have said some well thought statements....

Well he's only stated exactly what has happened in the past 6 years for every system that's been released starting with the Dreamcast. No offense Matt, but it's not like you're going out on a limb or anything.

[fsquid]

I have an HDTV, but I don't see the 360 at $400 to be a bargain. If I was single still, I'd get one on launch just like the DC, PS2, and XBOX. If I didn't have a child on the way, I'd probably be lining up in three weeks too.

By the way, is there a complete list of backward compatible games out there?

[dbdynsty25]

Gaming hasn't peaked and won't be fading away any time soon. It generates more money per year than movies.

No it doesn't. Look it up.

It's comparable to box office sales domestically (10 billion to 9 billion in favor of gaming), but once you account for DVD and international release, gaming gets trounced.

[ScoopBrady]

Gaming hasn't peaked and won't be fading away any time soon. It generates more money per year than movies.

No it doesn't. Look it up.

It's comparable to box office sales domestically (10 billion to 9 billion in favor of gaming), but once you account for DVD and international release, gaming gets trounced.

Well, combine the 2 and you have 19 billion dollars spent for entertainment in this country excluding DVD sales. That's a lot of money to spend on entertainment and that's just the revenue from 2 forms of it. I still say gaming hasn't peaked at all.

[dbdynsty25]

And I would agree with that...I'm just pointing out that there is a misconception about how much money video games actually do bring in compared to movies.

[ScoopBrady]

And I would agree with that...I'm just pointing out that there is a misconception about how much money video games actually do bring in compared to movies.

Understood. It's still impressive that they surpassed movies at the Box Office though. UMD movies are even selling surprisingly well and as far as I know the PSP is the only device you can watch one on.

[matthewk]

Gaming hasn't peaked in terms of dollars, but I think we're at that peak as far as population goes. The dollars will go up because games will cost $10 more and the 360 costs $400. In terms of console sales I think we're at a plateau.

[matthewk]

Well he's only stated exactly what has happened in the past 6 years for every system that's been released starting with the Dreamcast. No offense Matt, but it's not like you're going out on a limb or anything.

Well, I'm not going to make wild predictions just to cause a stir. I really think this whole launch will be pretty uneventful compared to the PS2, DC, and Xbox.

[pk500]

Well he's only stated exactly what has happened in the past 6 years for every system that's been released starting with the Dreamcast. No offense Matt, but it's not like you're going out on a limb or anything.

Well, I'm not going to make wild predictions just to cause a stir. I really think this whole launch will be pretty uneventful compared to the PS2, DC, and Xbox.

I beg to differ, for one reason: Microsoft has pretty damn effective marketing and PR departments. For example, the Xbox 360 and Bill Gates were on the cover of Time Magazine last spring, months before its release. The MTV unveiling of the Xbox 360 in May generated substantial buzz even though it was a non-event.

Take care,
PK

[GridIronGhost]

I have an HDTV, but I don't see the 360 at $400 to be a bargain. If I was single still, I'd get one on launch just like the DC, PS2, and XBOX. If I didn't have a child on the way, I'd probably be lining up in three weeks too.

By the way, is there a complete list of backward compatible games out there?

I have several HDTV's and I see it (xbox 360) as a bargin. I also have 4 kids blah blah blah. At this point xbox 360 is a hell of alot cheaper then buying a video card and what ever upgrades that can run Quake 4 or the next greatest game, which will be out on the xbox 360. Your post indicates you can't afford the system at this time, that's fine, I challange you or anyone else to find me a better system (specs) for that money.


To everyone else in general:

The xbox came in at $100 cheaper when it was released in 2002, this system is only $100 more and a much better system. If you have to wait till the system drops $100 to buy it, maybe you should hold on to your xbox. If you have to wait till better games come out that you like, that fine too. But I'll disagree with anyone that says this is not a bargin (IMO).Some of you have posted going out to dinner weekly and you blow $100 easily. I'm sorry if I offended anyone, I did not mean to.

I'll now go take my meds.

[fsquid]

XBOX360 was on the front of the Charlotte Observer on Tuesday.

[fsquid]

$100 on dinner?? I better be getting blown for dessert!! I am hanging on to my XBOX because it still has some miles in it for me. NBA2K is a fun game offline to me and I enjoy MotoGP on XBL. I also pointed out that I'm digging two PC games now. So $400 compared to $0 is not a bargain for me. Like I said, this is for me.

[dbdynsty25]

$100 on dinner?? I better be getting blown for dessert!! I am hanging on to my XBOX because it still has some miles in it for me. NBA2K is a fun game offline to me and I enjoy MotoGP on XBL. I also pointed out that I'm digging two PC games now. So $400 compared to $0 is not a bargain for me. Like I said, this is for me.

But then again, you live in Tennessee...in LA, dinner and a few drinks is routinely 100 bucks if you don't go to the ridiculous chain establishments.

[GridIronGhost]

$100 on dinner?? I better be getting blown for dessert!! I am hanging on to my XBOX because it still has some miles in it for me. NBA2K is a fun game offline to me and I enjoy MotoGP on XBL. I also pointed out that I'm digging two PC games now. So $400 compared to $0 is not a bargain for me. Like I said, this is for me.

I like to know where you got those games for free. I agree with you, still too much good stuff on the xbox. If I was to get the xbox 360 at launch, it would prolly set around for 6-8 months before I put it to good use just like all the new systems before.

[AcemanPR]

I think it will be hard to keep Xbox 360s on store shelves before Christmas. Had Halo 3 been a launch title, then there wouldn't be any Xbox 360s on store shelves come November 23rd.

As far as the whole launch shortage thing, it is completely blown out of proportion. There were plenty of Xbox's available the day after launch, and many stores had some available the day after Christmas (which is the day I got mine). Tuesday before Thanksgiving will keep more casual gamers away from buying a 360 than any other day. This will be the last day of school for most kids, and I predict many won't skip out. Same with people working. Many would rather take Wednesday off rather than Tuesday that week. So finding a 360 on launch day shouldn't be tough.

For me, PGR3 is the game that makes me want a Xbox 360 on Day 1. I'm also looking forward to all the online stuff and Xbox Live Arcade.

This generation of gaming will be an interesting one. Personally, I can see online gaming starting to explode. If a MMORPG game like WoW comes out on the Xbox, you can see Xbox Live numbers easily triple. Also, I think all this online interaction with the games will be pretty addictive. Seeing achievements of people on your Friends List can drive even further competition. This may even cause me to actually finish some games.

I'm looking forward to the next generation of systems, especially the Xbox 360. With their online strategy and the first committed to HD gaming, I thing we are in for a few treats.

[Danimal]

The launch will be a hailed as a success, with lots of people waiting outside stores waiting for them them to open. However, I don't think it will be on the same scale as the PS2 or even the Dreamcast launch. Small packets of mobs mixed in with stores that will have a stack or 360s waiting to be sold.

Who determines the PS2 launch a success, who sets the bar for what a success is. The PS2 launch was succesful because they purposely limited their quantities. I can't see people falling for that again.

The Ebay effect will cause people to hoard these in the hopes of making a killing. It will work, as impulsive, panicked buyers will pay over 2x the retail price to get one, even as they are readily available on store shelves.

There will always be people willing to pay more on Ebay, I can never figure out why. I don't see it being a huge factor as with the PS2, unless MS can't meet demand, which it seems might be true.

There will be a few launch day stories on sites like CNN and MSN, but the fever will die down quickly. MS will claim victory, and sales will be strong, but nowhere near the record proportions of the PS2. I can see spot shortages, but if you want one for Christmas you'll be able to find one.

Maybe my memory is hazy, but the PS2 sold in record proportions? I remember people going nuts to get them because they shorted the untis available. Again what is your measuring stick, launch day sales? What were the PS2 launch day numbers, it will be easy to compare them to the 360's

1) There really does not seem to be a real system seller. Madden is madden, but nothing special. Kameo looks good, but it too niche market to attract the masses. The rest are all rehashes, other than King Kong.

No system seller to you & me, doesn't mean there is not a seller. Again I can't think of one PS2 title that was a system seller, unless you count Madden.

2) The price. After paying $3 a gallon for gas, and the threat of high heating costs, fringe buyers will be scared off by the $400 proces tag and $60 games. A lot will probably cave by Christmas, since we Americans tend to use that holiday as an excuse to buy whatever we want, no matter the cost.

Non factor, people who can, will buy it. If your deciding factor is whether to get gas this week or buy a 360, playing video games should not be a priority in your life.

3) The PS3 effect.

LMAO, yeah big effect.

4) Personally, I'm just not feeling the pull to get one. Maybe I'm getting older. I still loves gaming, even if it's drifted awway from sports titles lately. I just don't have that "got to have it" urge I had with the D, PS2, or Xbox. Gaming got huge the past few years, but I think it's reached it's peak. At some point (a certain percentage of) people will tire of video games and move on to the next big thing. I believe we've reached that plateau.

So you don't feel it, honestly neither do I. Don't see how that is a facotr in whether it is succesful. As for gaming reaching it peak, tell Blizzard and the 4 million WOW subscribers that. Seems to me they just proved that a MMO can break the million mark if the product is good.

[Boom]

There were plenty of Xbox's available the day after launch, and many stores had some available the day after Christmas (which is the day I got mine).

I was talking with a buddy of mine about this the other day at work, and he tends to be of this very mindset.

I'd like to point out a couple of things though.
1. XBOX was brand new, never seen before. No prior installed fanbase from a previous generation system.

2. It launched head-to-head against Nintendo, within just a few days of their Gamecube.

I honestly think that there will be much higher demand for the 360 at launch then there was for the original.

[kevinpars]

Yeah, it all is a matter of perspective. Personally, I don't have any other hobbies or vices that cost a lot of money. I like to read, I like to play sports games and an occasional shooter, and I like to do work on the house and yard. Well, I don't exactly love house and yardwork, but I like it a lot more than paying someone else to do it.

As for backward compatibility, it does not sound good based on what I have seen around the web. Nothing has been confirmed, but the rumors are that Halo and Halo 2 are about the only Xbox games that will work on the 360 on release day. If this is true, then I will have to hang on to my Xbox for a while, since i still play NCAA football, MVP baseball and a few other games. But nothing has been confirmed. Supposedly Halo 2 is going to look a lot better on the 360. Again, that is word of mouth.

As for the whole hype thing, all I can say is that nothing is every going to be as big a jump for me as the first time I saw NFL2K on my TV after booting up my DC for the first time. Even having been a big PC gamer, it was a shock to see something look that good on a TV after years of using a psx.

[10spro]

Though it’s been rumoured by Bill Gates that Xbox 360 may feature HD-DVD support eventually, Yoshihiro Maruyama, Xbox Japan’s chief of operations, has gone on record stating that,

“It’s a possibility, but it won’t have any relationship to gaming. If the Xbox 360 uses a next-generation DVD drive in the future, it will only be used for watching movies that run on next-generation DVDs. The format for games will remain as [standard] DVD. That’s not going to change.”

Too bad.