Xbox 360 version A, version B...

[wco81]

Consoles are just like any other piece of electronic equipment now -- development cycles will be shorter.

They have to amortize for at least a 5-year cycle. Take losses at first but make money later as it becomes cheaper to manufacture.

MS couldn't do that with the Xbox because they were at the mercy of Intel and nVidia, which manufactured the components and used contracts negotiated before launch. That is why you didn't see for instance a slim Xbox using shrunk silicon like the slim PS2.

This time, MS is getting rights to the chips and they can manufacture them in Taiwan using whatever contracts they're able to negotiate now and later. The chips they're using are designed to be shrunk to yield big cost savings down the line.

Now that's not to say there's no chance MS will come out with a new console in 2009. But it wouldn't be financially smart to abandon a design which is intended to hit its stride, cost-wise, around then.

[Dave]

Now that's not to say there's no chance MS will come out with a new console in 2009. But it wouldn't be financially smart to abandon a design which is intended to hit its stride, cost-wise, around then.

But, as mentioned earlier in the thread, someone will probably launch a new console in 2009 with all of the newest technology.

Will MS just stand pat at that point?

Welcome back, PK, I was looking forward to your opinion on MS' 360 announcement. At least I know you'll be playing Toca 3 once it comes out

[bdoughty]

Now that's not to say there's no chance MS will come out with a new console in 2009. But it wouldn't be financially smart to abandon a design which is intended to hit its stride, cost-wise, around then.

But, as mentioned earlier in the thread, someone will probably launch a new console in 2009 with all of the newest technology.

Will MS just stand pat at that point?

Who exactly would that be? With both Nintendo and Sony launching in late 2006 to 2007 who would be left? I doubt any of them would be to concerened with a newcomer to the market.

I like PK, really I do but he would be the last person I would base an opinion on when it comes to launch consoles. Especially after he doomed and gloomed the Xbox before it launched. Videogames as a hobby are not a tightwads paradise.

[GridIronGhost]

I don't agree with you PK, I did get a laugh out of it (your posts). Did you whine this much when the NES came out in 1985 @ $200 bones? Maybe you kicked and screamed more when the PS2 was released in 2000 @ $299 + $35 for a mem card and if you had a friend that wanted in on the action, another cool $35 for a controller. Most consoles have a 5 year life spand, MS will have 4 years...I know you feel cheated. So what do we get for $399 (20) years later after the $200 NES? Not much huh? http://www.xbox.com/en-US/xbox360/factsheet.htm I remember selling the NES system back 20 years ago and stills sells today. Maybe you just waited it out until the systems became affordable...no problem, but don't call me a lemming just because I want to enjoy my hobby on my very expensive high end HDTV.

[pk500]

Now that's not to say there's no chance MS will come out with a new console in 2009. But it wouldn't be financially smart to abandon a design which is intended to hit its stride, cost-wise, around then.

Well, if MS loses this round again, you can bet it will release another console before 2010. Following neat-and-tidy Excel amortization schedules can be thrown out the window when you have a billion in cash reserves.

MS will continue to throw money at this until stockholders balk or it wins the battle, amortization schedules be damned.

And do you honestly think the chip tussle was the main reason MS is releasing its new unit first? It's part of it, but MS wanted to be first this time, regardless of whether it was using an Intel, Nvidia, Lays or Tostitos chip, because it always has felt that Sony's one-year head start in this generation was pivotal.

Take care,
PK

[GridIronGhost]

I like PK, really I do but he would be the last person I would base an opinion on when it comes to launch consoles. Especially after he doomed and gloomed the Xbox before it launched. Videogames as a hobby are not a tightwads paradise.

AMEN....

[kevinpars]

2 price points is just confusing and bad marketing.

If Microsoft were to eat the $100 and go at $299 and if Sony did not come out with the PS3 until 2007, I think that MS could win the next generation wars. Hell, instead of confusing the public, MS could just go in at $349.00 and split the difference and still win. But it will come down to games that are more than just pretty.

Look at it this way - Electronic Arts, for all the money they made with Madden and NCAA this month, have had a down year and investors and getting nervous and impatient. The word EA is telling them is to be patient bacause gamers are not spending money and are waiting for the next gen systems. That makes it sound like EA could go whole hog with Xbox 360 games. If Madden and NBA Live or Godfather were to be significantly better on the 360 than the current generation - with extra functionality to go with improved graphics, that could sway a lot of people.

If Sony does not come out with a new console until 2007, what exactly can we expect from current hardware generation games like Madden 2007 and NCAA 2007? Same old graphics and same old engine. I don't think even EA can sell another version of Madden for the PS2/Xbox with updated rosters and a gimmick or 2 upgrade. If 360 were the only game in town come next summer, that would mean the 360 could have 2 versions of Madden before the PS3 even comes out. That is big.

As for me personally, it will take something more than what I have seen to sway me to spend that much money. But what have we seen as sports gamers? A 30 second shot of Madden that may not even be true gameplay but an artist's rendition of what it could look like. Big deal.

I can see myself holding out for a while. It will take more than just Madden, that is for sure. It will take a few special games, a racer, a tennis game, maybe even a big baseball game. I can see myself waiting for next year's football games easy. Once I have purchased football, basketball and hockey games in early fall, I often doen't spend anything on games until baseball gaming.

I will have to be convinced with a lot of wows from people I respect - meaning guys on this board. Even then, it will take a lot to get me to commit to a 'me only' purchase like a new console. If I feel that way, I can only imagine how those of you with children feel like.

[pk500]

I like PK, really I do but he would be the last person I would base an opinion on when it comes to launch consoles. Especially after he doomed and gloomed the Xbox before it launched. Videogames as a hobby are not a tightwads paradise.

And where in this thread did I say MS would fail? Nowhere. Bad comparison, BD.

In fact, I said MS will sell these things like condoms in a Bangkok whorehouse because gaming has reached critical mass and people want the latest technology, price or value be damned.

My biggest beef is the two-tiered pricing strategy. It's a joke. The Xbox is $500 with one game out the door, and that's too much in my eyes, especially when the Xbox 360 is bound to receive a $100 price cut by the holiday season 2006, after Sony has established market leadership in the next gen with the PS3.

That's not a Sony fanboy speaking -- in fact, I LOVE my Xbox much more than I ever dug my PS2. That's someone speaking who understands the brand cache of the PlayStation name and the leadership that Sony has built in the industry over the last decade.

I predict the full-featured Xbox 360 will be $299 by Christmas 2006. I can wait until then.

Plus, what the hell is interesting in the Xbox 360 launch lineup besides Madden 06 and Project Gotham Racing 3? Not much, at least for me. This launch lineup is looking as barren as that of the PSP to me. Yet another reason to wait for the second wave of software in 2006.

Take care,
PK

[pk500]

I don't agree with you PK, I did get a laugh out of it (your posts). Did you whine this much when the NES came out in 1985 @ $200 bones? Maybe you kicked and screamed more when the PS2 was released in 2000 @ $299 + $35 for a mem card and if you had a friend that wanted in on the action, another cool $35 for a controller. Most consoles have a 5 year life spand, MS will have 4 years...I know you feel cheated. So what do we get for $399 (20) years later after the $200 NES? Not much huh? http://www.xbox.com/en-US/xbox360/factsheet.htm I remember selling the NES system back 20 years ago and stills sells today. Maybe you just waited it out until the systems became affordable...no problem, but don't call me a lemming just because I want to enjoy my hobby on my very expensive high end HDTV.

I never have bought a console at launch. Why? Because history has shown that a price cut is inevitable within 12 to 18 months, especially with strong competition.

Enough context for you?

As for the lifespan, you're referencing a time when video gaming was considered a niche hobby. It's not a mass market phenomenon, and there's no way a company -- especially one that's losing the battle yet has deep pockets -- is going to sit pat for five years just so the traditional "console lifespan" can be played out.

So if MS is getting its ass kicked by Sony in 2007, it's going to wait until the holidays of 2010 to launch the next Xbox? Dream on.

If you're a guy who owns a very expensive high-end TV, then you're going to buy any piece of electronic equipment. Electronics are WAY more important to you than me, and price and value aren't big considerations for you. Feeding your hobby is. So we're clearly very different kinds of consumers and hobbyists. Gaming just scratches my top-five list of most enjoyable hobbies. Probably slots in around No. 5 even though it is a fascinating industry about which I talk and write more about than actually play!

I could live without gaming if it ended tomorrow. Could you? Well, I would like to keep my copy of Football Manager 2005 for the PC.

Take care,
PK

[bdoughty]

I was referring to how you doomed and gloomed the CURRENT Xbox before it launched years ago on another forum far far away. You are a self-admitted tightwad. You would not be considered the norm when it comes to the average gamer with your console monogomous nature. Not that there is anything wrong with that but some people enjoy the latest and greatest and if they have disposable income have no issues purchasing things at higher prices.

It's not like anyone is being forced to buy the Core Console or the full monty. If people think the Core System is a joke fine. You can keep playing your Xbox for as long as you like. Microsoft has already said that arond 80% of the Xboxes shipped at launch will include the hard drive, so that means they are pushing the full Xbox 360. I do know this much. A couple years down the line if an Xbox 360 breaks (and consoles tend to do that on occasion) ou of warranty/extended warranty someone will be glad there is a core system around to replace it, instead of having to pay the full price and get a bunch of stuff you already have. Not every gamer is willing to replace a broken system with a smoke infested used version or wait to send it off to be fixed.

[pk500]

I was referring to how you doomed and gloomed the CURRENT Xbox before it launched years ago on another forum far far away. You are a self-admitted tightwad. You would not be considered the norm when it comes to the average gamer with your console monogomous nature. Not that there is anything wrong with that but some people enjoy the latest and greatest and if they have disposable income have no issues purchasing things at higher prices.

It's not like anyone is being forced to buy the Core Console or the full monty. If people think the Core System is a joke fine. You can keep playing your Xbox for as long as you like. Microsoft has already said that arond 80% of the Xboxes shipped at launch will include the hard drive, so that means they are pushing the full Xbox 360. I do know this much. A couple years down the line if an Xbox 360 breaks (and consoles tend to do that on occasion) ou of warranty/extended warranty someone will be glad there is a core system around to replace it, instead of having to pay the full price and get a bunch of stuff you already have. Not every gamer is willing to replace a broken system with a smoke infested used version or wait to send it off to be fixed.

I'm well aware of that, BD. And NEVER for a second have I or do I think ANYONE is going to base their console purchase on my opinions.

They're idiots if they do, and I don't rate my opinions or myself that highly. I thought I was more of the village idiot around here than anything.

Take care,
PK

[Dave]

If Sony does not come out with a new console until 2007, what exactly can we expect from current hardware generation games like Madden 2007 and NCAA 2007? Same old graphics and same old engine. I don't think even EA can sell another version of Madden for the PS2/Xbox with updated rosters and a gimmick or 2 upgrade. If 360 were the only game in town come next summer, that would mean the 360 could have 2 versions of Madden before the PS3 even comes out. That is big.

As for me personally, it will take something more than what I have seen to sway me to spend that much money. But what have we seen as sports gamers? A 30 second shot of Madden that may not even be true gameplay but an artist's rendition of what it could look like. Big deal.

Kevin, I agree with much of what you say, outside of the 2007 EA football games part. They will probably have one more big release out of them on the current generation of consoles. Now, will they even bother to add a gimmick or two? I doubt it, they will mostly be roster updates, but they will sell.

BD, you're the go-to guy for sales data--do you have any Madden 01-03 sales data that includes PSone, N64, XBox, and PS2?

*edit* Madden 2001 sold ~660K for PS2, 990K for PSone in calendar year 2001

This will be a very interesting test of the PlayStation brand name, though, with MS having anywhere from a 6-18 month headstart. The "hardcore" gadget/gaming folks will probably buy both, but what about the more general market?

I didn't get a PS2 until Spring 2002, so I need to keep that in perspective as the new consoles launch...and it was the massively improved graphics of GT3 that pushed me over the edge. As of now, there isn't a similar killer app.

[GridIronGhost]

I never have bought a console at launch. Why? Because history has shown that a price cut is inevitable within 12 to 18 months, especially with strong competition.

Enough context for you?

Maybe you just waited it out until the systems became affordable...no problem <------This was in my first post, maybe you missed it.

As for the lifespan, you're referencing a time when video gaming was considered a niche hobby. It's not a mass market phenomenon, and there's no way a company -- especially one that's losing the battle yet has deep pockets -- is going to sit pat for five years just so the traditional "console lifespan" can be played out.So if MS is getting its ass kicked by Sony in 2007, it's going to wait until the holidays of 2010 to launch the next Xbox? Dream on.

Go back to the drawing board for a few years or pack it in, but no new system in 2007. Would you keep coming back after 2 arse kickings? Kinda like Sega. Sega arse was kicked (Saturn and Dreamcast) and they gave it up, MS would do the same.

If you're a guy who owns a very expensive high-end TV, then you're going to buy any piece of electronic equipment. Electronics are WAY more important to you than me, and price and value aren't big considerations for you. Feeding your hobby is.

Time is more important to me, that is why I don't hang around hear everyday. Price and value are important and I think Xbox 360 holds good value at it's price point.

So we're clearly very different kinds of consumers and hobbyists. Gaming just scratches my top-five list of most enjoyable hobbies. Probably slots in around No. 5 even though it is a fascinating industry about which I talk and write more about than actually play!

We are different types of gamers, but we both enjoy sports over any other genre. Gaming is not even in my top five.

I could live without gaming if it ended tomorrow. Could you?

This industry is 60% of my income.

[bdoughty]

I was referring to how you doomed and gloomed the CURRENT Xbox before it launched years ago on another forum far far away. You are a self-admitted tightwad. You would not be considered the norm when it comes to the average gamer with your console monogomous nature. Not that there is anything wrong with that but some people enjoy the latest and greatest and if they have disposable income have no issues purchasing things at higher prices.

It's not like anyone is being forced to buy the Core Console or the full monty. If people think the Core System is a joke fine. You can keep playing your Xbox for as long as you like. Microsoft has already said that arond 80% of the Xboxes shipped at launch will include the hard drive, so that means they are pushing the full Xbox 360. I do know this much. A couple years down the line if an Xbox 360 breaks (and consoles tend to do that on occasion) ou of warranty/extended warranty someone will be glad there is a core system around to replace it, instead of having to pay the full price and get a bunch of stuff you already have. Not every gamer is willing to replace a broken system with a smoke infested used version or wait to send it off to be fixed.

I'm well aware of that, BD. And NEVER for a second have I or do I think ANYONE is going to base their console purchase on my opinions.

They're idiots if they do, and I don't rate my opinions or myself that highly. I thought I was more of the village idiot around here than anything.

Take care,
PK

LOL... Well I think you underestimate the power that is the word PK wields in this forum. Many people respect your opinion and rightly so.

[pk500]

LOL... Well I think you underestimate the power that is the word PK wields in this forum. Many people respect your opinion and rightly so.

BD:

Thanks, that's flattering. But anyone who takes my advice with more than a pinch of Morton does it at their peril.

There are a ton of guys in here who have more gaming experience and have owned more systems and games than me. Yeah, I go back to the Atari 2600, but I certainly haven't owned every system since then.

I just have a big mouth so it seems like I know what I'm talking about.

Take care,
PK

[pk500]

Go back to the drawing board for a few years or pack it in, but no new system in 2007. Would you keep coming back after 2 arse kickings? Kinda like Sega. Sega arse was kicked (Saturn and Dreamcast) and they gave it up, MS would do the same.

I disagree with you. There's never been a beaten company in the console business with the cash reserves or willpower of MS. You simply can't compare Sega to MS.

And gaming isn't Microsoft Bob or WebTV. Sony has shown that gaming can be a huge revenue generator, as it's the biggest source of profit for Sony now.

Gaming never will replace operating systems and software as MS' primary revenue stream, but it sure can be a nice supplement if MS wins. And MS plays to win, not just to play like other second-place companies in the console industry.

This industry is 60% of my income.

No kidding? What do you do, if you don't mind me asking?

Take care,
PK

[bdunn13]

The gaming industry is just a test for Microsoft. They are working on their OS strategy of the future. I would expect the next OS after longhorn to be rented not sold. XP was the first step in this by requiring activation. Expect the OS after longhorn to be activated monthly or yearly as MS is hurting for $$ growth.

[blueduke]

A couple years down the line if an Xbox 360 breaks (and consoles tend to do that on occasion) ou of warranty/extended warranty someone will be glad there is a core system around to replace it, instead of having to pay the full price and get a bunch of stuff you already have.

Excellent point

[Leebo33]

A couple years down the line if an Xbox 360 breaks (and consoles tend to do that on occasion) ou of warranty/extended warranty someone will be glad there is a core system around to replace it, instead of having to pay the full price and get a bunch of stuff you already have.

Excellent point

Do you guys really think they are going to keep this "core system" thing going for 2 years or longer? I think it is just a (really bad) launch gimmick. I can't see it lasting past next Christmas. Releasing anything with a corded controller in the year 2007 will seem even more dated than it already does now. I haven't used a corded controller outside of XBL play in 18 months or longer as it is now. Microsoft should be putting an emphasis on the new technology instead of even wasting time with corded controllers, the need for memory cards, standard cables and confusing people with packages.

I'm all for a new system and (as a proud owner of a PSP) I'm not afraid to buy overpriced stuff at launch. However, I just don't have nearly enough information to even come close to pre-ordering this thing. MS really needs to fully answer the backward compatability issue and I need to see some more games in action IMO before I can even begin to get excited. When did the marketing hype begin for PS2? I wanted that thing a year before launch.

[10spro]

I just don’t understand why Microsoft is saying “Not everyone wants it” now. They showed off the hard-drive, Wireless controller, and HD features many things, as if it was going to be a standard. In pass interviews, they said they were going to be. Now they are ripping them out and charging more? Not good Microsoft. This just made my choice of what to spend money on this winter much easier, I’ll buy my xbox games, the odd PS2 game, then wait for the Playstation 3. MS had such a great chance to come out and really blow people away, wow the gamers with the games, features, and price. But you seem to have gone backwards.

[10spro]

On the pricing scheme: I consider it to be marketing BS. The $299 package is merely for being able to claim to sell at that pricepoint. Considering the high prices of the accessories, with at least either harddrive or memorycard being needed for basic functionality and backwards compatibility, in my opinion, the $299 package is not competitive. Meaning that no one should want to buy the cheap package.


What I think will happen is that MS will cause bit of grief in a lot of families, especially those for whom money doesn’t grow on trees, where the parents who don’t know that much about the console buy a cheap 360 for their kids in the holiday season and then get screwed by having to buy further expensive accessories.


What I’d also like to know is whether games actually depend on mass storage. Final Fantasy XI as an example looks as if it might not be playable without harddrive and headset.
The ridiculous thing is that the most serious complaints are about splintering the userbase, not the price. A"purposedly self driven" tactic by MS?

[bdoughty]

A couple years down the line if an Xbox 360 breaks (and consoles tend to do that on occasion) ou of warranty/extended warranty someone will be glad there is a core system around to replace it, instead of having to pay the full price and get a bunch of stuff you already have.

Excellent point

Do you guys really think they are going to keep this "core system" thing going for 2 years or longer?

It's not really what I think, it is what Microsoft is saying. See interview with Peter Moore.

http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/642/642645p1.html

Peter: My firm belief, and in all of the discussions I've had in the last couple days with the analysts who are starting to look at this and tear this thing apart, is that the great majority of sales will be at $399. That is huge value for the money. We absolutely project that the Xbox 360 will outsell the Core System in the early going. Over the life cycle that balance will probably change, but for $399, it's phenomenal value.

As I have mentioned over the life cycle you will have many people replacing or repurchasing systems. Most of these people not needed all the extra goodies. So the shift in "Core Systems" will increase ever so slightly, year by year.

Again I want to throw out (I forgot the link) Microsoft plans to ship out 80% of their systems with a hard drive. The "core SKU" covers them with people who think $399 is high yet still want a next gen system but have the $299 price imbeded in their brain as what they will pay for a next gen console. I think if we looked it up in a dictionary it would be called "giving the *PITA Consumer* their choice."

I do not get what that is so hard to understand or why it is confusing. It is only 2 SKU's. You buy the $299.99 one and you are a moron (Microsoft is trying to tell you that by the retail pricing of the individual consoles). The problem is no matter what they offer people are going to complain. People would still complain if there was no "core system" and only the $399.99 option.

Also by pricing the Xbox 360 at $399 they give themselves some leeway to drop the price (as PK mentioned to a possible $299 or $349) next year or based on what Sony prices the PS3 at. They can add or remove things from each SKU as the years move on. Nothing is set in stone other then what the two SKU's will launch for and consist of.


What do you guys do when you purchase a car? So many different colors and options, my only guess is.

[bdoughty]

I just don’t understand why Microsoft is saying “Not everyone wants it” now. They showed off the hard-drive, Wireless controller, and HD features many things, as if it was going to be a standard. In pass interviews, they said they were going to be. Now they are ripping them out and charging more? Not good Microsoft. This just made my choice of what to spend money on this winter much easier, I’ll buy my xbox games, the odd PS2 game, then wait for the Playstation 3. MS had such a great chance to come out and really blow people away, wow the gamers with the games, features, and price. But you seem to have gone backwards.

And you as the consumer have the right to NOT PURCHASE IT. Yet when November rolls around I know damn well many of the compainers are going to be freezing their ass off outside a Best Buy because they did not pre-order it. Or trying to beat up holiday shoppers around Christmas so they can have it under the tree. I assure you the last thing Microsoft is worried about is they won't sell at $299 or $399.


On a rant as I can just see this discussion happening thousands of times at the local EB and Gamestop.


First: Everyone should be forced to do retail for at least 6 months in their life.

AT A MALL STORE!!!

Just to understand the other side. For example I was in a gamestore when Blizzard released Warcraft III (I forget the game?) and it was retailed at $65 and they had a strict NO DISCOUNT policy. Every single person that came in to purchase the game went like this.


____________________________________________________________

PITA: Do you have Warcraft III I preordered it?

Me: Yes it is $65 (plus tax)

PITA: Oh that is BS (rable rable rable........................)

5 minutes later

Me: Do you want the game?

PITA: Why are you selling it for $65 that sucks (rable rable rable..............)

5 minutes later

Me: Because Blizzard set the price. We are required to sell it at the price given to us by our corporate office. Do you want the game or shall I cancel the preorder?

PITA: Yes give me the game.

Me: Flipping off customer underneath the counter

____________________________________________________________


This was just a friendly reminder to those who plan to go into their favorite gaming store and comlpain about the Xbox360. They do not care. They do not make money on new systems.

[Teal]

That's disturbing...$hit looks real...

[anchester]

i disgree with you guys saying the core system is worthless and will be discontinued in a few years. On the contrary I think the core system will be become a bigger seller in the later years as more of the masses start upgrading their system. The masses are concerned about lowest price. 2 years from now nobody will care about backwards compatability (and we still don't have any official word from MS about BC except that the big games will be BC).

The masses are also not online as much. Currently only 10-20% game online. Sure the numbers might rise but still there should be a huge chunk of gamers where a cord controller (not that big of a deal to me really) and a memory card (note in a couple of years, a 2nd party memory card will be $15 not the overpriced $40 that MS is charging) will do fine for them.

I am actually tempted to get the core system, but I won't. The harddrive has always just been a big memory card to me.

For PK to say that the 360 is overpriced. I disagree. I do think that the peripherals are overpriced ($40 memory card and $40 wired controllers!!). But a base 360 is a monster on power (like a 3k alienware rig) and included $20 HD cables.

IMHO, nobody should be the 360 unless they have an HDTV. The games will look amazing on a big screen HDTV. Otherwise they will look about as good as an xbox on are traditional tube SDTV.