OT: Bird Flu

[sportdan30]

Maybe it's because I have kids now, but the threat of the bird flu scares the heck out of me. Yes, I realize they're not speaking of it becoming an epidemic in the United States, but I can't help but be a little worried.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/conditio ... index.html

[Zeppo]

Maybe it's because I have kids now, but the threat of the bird flu scares the heck out of me. Yes, I realize they're not speaking of it becoming an epidemic in the United States, but I can't help but be a little worried.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/conditio ... index.html

Apparently there is very real concern that this could become the first pandemic since the Spanish flue in the early part of the 20th century. It could be a lot worse now, though, what with air travel and the much denser population of the earth. What's sad is that despite lots of warnings, public officials around the world seem to be in no hurry to do the precautions that could help mitigate the situation. At least the SARS event has whipped China into shape, in terms of releasing info in a timely manner.

[bigmoe]

From the article

If a bird flu virus infects a person who also carries a human flu virus, the result could be a hybrid bug that passes easily from person to person. "That's the spark that sets off the forest fire of a global pandemic, and that's what everyone is worried about," said flu expert Dr. William Schaffner of Vanderbilt University


If this happens were all in trouble,here in US also, no way to stop it.

[Diablo25]

Thank you and good night

[kicko]

yes that is scary but WTF do they know about how this WILL spread? no one can say what is going to happen and if this is even going to be a problem, i know, i know what your thinking but lets be concerned and not frightened. i'm sure there things out there we don't even know about that could be worse. So what if the counrty looks like one big nail shop and we all wear masks?

[pk500]

Anyone remember the killer bees from Mexico and Central America that were supposed to engulf the southern third of the U.S. in the 1970s, causing mass death?

I'm not dismissing bird flu, but I'll wait to panic until it becomes a true health threat in North America.

Frankly, the terrorist bombings today in London scare me more than bird flu. Shows the war on terror has a long way to go, if it's winnable at all. Today's bombing proves that Al-Qaeda is a much bigger threat to the world than Iraq, a message the White House still hasn't received, apparently.

Take care,
PK

[10spro]

Anyone remember the killer bees from Mexico and Central America that were supposed to engulf the southern third of the U.S. in the 1970s, causing mass death?

I'm not dismissing bird flu, but I'll wait to panic until it becomes a true health threat in North America.

Frankly, the terrorist bombings today in London scare me more than bird flu. Shows the war on terror has a long way to go, if it's winnable at all. Today's bombing proves that Al-Qaeda is a much bigger threat to the world than Iraq, a message the White House still hasn't received, apparently.

Take care,
PK

The repercusions of the Iraq war will take years and years to heal both for the Muslim world and the heroes that died defending the allied countries that went to war. The bombings in London today, just reminded me of the cold, heartless attacks by the IRA.

[Zeppo]

yes that is scary but WTF do they know about how this WILL spread? no one can say what is going to happen and if this is even going to be a problem, i know, i know what your thinking but lets be concerned and not frightened. i'm sure there things out there we don't even know about that could be worse. So what if the counrty looks like one big nail shop and we all wear masks?

I'm not a doctor or an infectious disease specialist, or even a biologist, but I've followed this a bit in the news and other sources.

This bird flu has already exhibited an ability to spread among different species of birds. It has shown it can infect humans, and it is very deadly when it does so. Most viruses are species-specific, but it seems more and more we are seeing viruses jump from species to species. Luckily, so far there is no indication that this virus is contagious among humans; that is, humans can contract it from infected birds, but not from infected humans. However, influenza viruses mutate rather rapidly, and it is likely a matter of time before this particular strain mutates into a flu that can be transmitted from human to human; as mentioned in the linked article, one possibility is that it infects a person who is already infected with a strain of flu that is contagious among humans, and that could lead to a mutation that would be contagious among humans.

What seems to concern health officials is that this particular flu is entirely unlike any flu that has infected humans before. So, while we have immunities built up against a great many strains of flu, and while mutations of those strains may be infectious and very dangerous to those who have infirm immune systems, they are not particularly deadly to most humans because we have immunities to viruses that are very similar. This one is so different that people don't have immunities that would help, so it is possible that this could be extremely deadly to a great percentage of the population.

The Spanish flu that spread in the early part of the 20th century, since it occurred when it did, has provided a fair amount of data about how these thing spread and who may be susceptible and all that. So health officials have some reason to be concerned that this, in an age of rapid, world-wide transit, and food and livestock shipping around the world, none of which was true when the Spanish flu hit, could pose more serious problems than that did, and that was pretty devastating.

I don't see what killer bees have to do with viruses, they are very different kinds of organisms, so I can't say I see validity in that analogy.

Anyway, that's my, admittedly limited, understanding of this. I would love to see one of our resident doctors and/or biologists chime in with some more pertinent observations and correct whatever misstatements and disinformation I may be guilty of. As someone who lives in NYC, it is likely more of a concern for me than most of you, since NYC is such a hub of worldwide travel and so densely populated; I get sneezed on all the time on the subway, for example, and our hospital capacity is not nearly up to snuff for any kind of City-wide epidemic.

[TheMightyPuck]

As has been said, there are viruses developing all the time and virus genes evolve more rapidly than human genes. It is genetic cryptography. Sooner or later one of them is going to unlock a weakness in the genome and there will be a pandemic like the one after WW1. At least that's my uneducated theory. Our best scientists along with supercomputers might be able to keep up with the bugs at some point but right now we ain't there. Your best protection will be to have genes that make you resistant to the virus.

[wco81]

Isn't this coming from the way they use live chickens in the Far East? I think SARS hit the West Coast more than NYC because there's a lot of travel across the Pacific.

The one coming westward is the West Nile Virus, carried by insects.

Seems like we had a moratorium from viral disease with the advent of vaccines. But now, the bugs are coming back with a vengeance. Who knows if man's attempts to fight them hasn't resulted in more resistant, deadly strains.

Yeah subways are obvious pathways for infectious diseases but in light of recent events, there are more immediate dangers in mass transit. As great as subways are in big cities, it might be good to look into taxis on that vacation.

[sfz_T-car]

SARS and previous bird flu outbreaks changed some habits around poultry handling in Singapore and HK at least. I've heard the big wet market in Singapore's Little India district has been closed down. Too bad because it was a surreal environment.

It's impossible (for a caucasian at least) to find live chicken for sale in SF Chinatown nowadays. It wasn't too long ago that there were pickup trucks with caged chickens in back along Stockton St. on Saturday AM.

KUALA LUMPUR, July 6 (Reuters) - The following are detailed measures proposed by U.N. health agencies to reduce the risks of bird flu infection from wet markets in Asia.

The World Health Organisation, the Food and Agriculture Organisation and the World Organisation for Animal Health concluded a three-day meeting in Malaysia's capital before jointly releasing the recommendations on Wednesday.

They are:

- All birds are to be held in a single wholesale market before being sold by retailers.

- Bird populations are be constantly monitored for dead and sick birds, which must be surrendered for analysis.

- Mixing of different types of poultry is prohibited to reduce interspecies infections and minimise the chance of viral genes being reassorted.

- Waterfowl such as ducks are to be slaughtered in a central location.

- The refuse of waterfowl slaughtered at central facilities is to be packed separately from other animals slaughtered in the facility and in individual packages to prevent cross-contamination.

- Quail are to be segregated from chickens, and sale of live quail should be prohibited at retail markets.

- Traders are to slaughter all remaining live poultry on their premises by noon on a designated day for cleaning and disinfection work to take place in the afternoon and evening.

- Poultry traders are to observe mandatory rest days at their premises for health inspections and those who contravene regulations are to lose their business licences.

[TheMightyPuck]

Yeah subways are obvious pathways for infectious diseases but in light of recent events, there are more immediate dangers in mass transit. As great as subways are in big cities, it might be good to look into taxis on that vacation.

Terror works because of the bang for the buck. People act like it is a much greater threat than it is because of the "terror" factor. An actuary for an insurance company isn't going to up subway riders insurance rates. Who knows where the next attack will be.

[wco81]

All the influenza come from the same region too. If it's not poultry, it's something related to pigs. And then there are some horror stories about Chinese restaurants too.


Next attacks may not happen on subways but they've pretty much admitted it would be impossible to secure the subways without severely choking their capacity. Imagine going through detection equipment and search personnel just to go a few blocks. On both ends.

It's too bad too because they're so much better than any other forms of transportation in certain places.

Looks like the stock markets kind of wrote off the impact of the attacks, even though more bodies may be found. But think about how these attacks, consisting of less than 10 pounds of explosives at each location, has taken the transportation system of a big city off line for a few days, killed dozens, injured hundreds.

Yeah an actuary can tell you the statistical likelihood of being a victim of terrorism is lower than being killed in a car crash. But there were certainly great economic consequences. Certainly the insurance companies which employ some of those actuaries will have to pay out significant life insurance, health insurance and liability claims.

[sportdan30]

http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/10/05/ ... index.html

Glad to see this issue is starting to get more attention. As it should!

So, is Tamiflu a vaccine against contracting bird flu or just makes the symptoms less severe?

[matthewk]

I'm not a doctor or an infectious disease specialist, or even a biologist, but ...

I did stay at a Holiday Inn.

Sorry, just couldn't resist Back to the panic...

[wco81]

The administration has been talking about the urgency of taking measures to try to contain what could be a pandemic. Secretary Leavitt and Bush have been talking highly of John M. Barry's "The Great Influenza," which is about the 1918 pandemic which killed 50 million.

Avian flu isn't highly contagious but the fatality rate is 50%.

There is a vaccine but no capacity to manufacture enough doses. Certainly no domestic capacity.

[sportdan30]

I'm not a doctor or an infectious disease specialist, or even a biologist, but ...

I did stay at a Holiday Inn.

Sorry, just couldn't resist Back to the panic...

Joke now, but you may not be later......

http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/conditio ... index.html

[sportdan30]

http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/conditio ... index.html

Lawmakers angry at months of delay have already given Bush money to begin those preparations: $8 billion in emergency funding that the Senate, pushed by Democrats, passed on Thursday.

Finally...what was W waiting for?

[XXXIV]

On the average 36,000 people die a year in the US from the (regular) flu.
Time to worry about that?..or we just dont care anymore unless it has a cool name?...or unless we can creat a panic?

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/keyfacts.htm

[tsunami]

http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/conditio ... index.html

Lawmakers angry at months of delay have already given Bush money to begin those preparations: $8 billion in emergency funding that the Senate, pushed by Democrats, passed on Thursday.

Finally...what was W waiting for?

For someone to explain to him what "pandemic" meant. Sorry...couldn't resist.

[pk500]

http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/conditio ... index.html

Lawmakers angry at months of delay have already given Bush money to begin those preparations: $8 billion in emergency funding that the Senate, pushed by Democrats, passed on Thursday.

Finally...what was W waiting for?

For Scooter Libby to clean out his desk and for Karl Rove to get his flu shot.

Out,
PK

[wco81]

It's amazing when you think about what's been going on in the last few years.

Wars, genocide, terrorist attacks, killer Hurricanes, tsunami, big earthquakes, SARS, acceleration of West Nile virus and now this threat of pandemic.

Does it seem worse than during other periods?

It's enough to make maybe some believers question their beliefs and the non-believers to maybe want to believe.

[TheMightyPuck]

It's amazing when you think about what's been going on in the last few years.

Wars, genocide, terrorist attacks, killer Hurricanes, tsunami, big earthquakes, SARS, acceleration of West Nile virus and now this threat of pandemic.

Does it seem worse than during other periods?

It's enough to make maybe some believers question their beliefs and the non-believers to maybe want to believe.

Media factor and population increase I would speculate. My reading of world history suggests I got pretty lucky with the time and place I'm living in.

[wco81]

Oh I wasn't thinking of the Middle Ages or anything like that. We definitely have it better than that. Also aware that there have been Millenial predictions throughout recorded history.

I was thinking more in terms of within our lifetimes, like the past decade seeming worse than the previous 2 or 3 decades. Of course, we didn't live though WWII or even Viet Nam.

Yes we probably hear more about disasters and problems than we used to, and those people who became refugees because of the tsunami and the earthquake will probably take the aid and build again in dangerous regions and live again in unsafe dwellings.

[pk500]

WCO:

You make a damn good point, but don't forget that we didn't have saturation, 24-hour media coverage on three cable networks 20 and 30 years ago.

The constant coverage of these disasters, wars, plagues, scandals, etc., makes them seem ubiquitous.

Take care,
PK