NHL Conspiracy Theory

[wco81]

I was listening to ESPN Radio Sunday. Some guy was talking about how this week may be the drop-dead time for whether they are going to have a shortened season at all (guess already half the season has been lost).

He noted that Bettman had rejected a 24% cut proposed by the players. He believe Bettman would have said no even if the players offered 40-50% cuts in pay.

His belief is that Bettman wants to contract the league down to about 20 teams so that the quality of play goes up and may draw some more dedicated fans (those that aren't pissed off by the strike/lockout that is).

NHL would get a lot of protests if they tried to contract and disband so many teams at once. But under the guise of labor strife, the NHL may be able to pull it off.

If this is true, that means a lot of players will be out of jobs. The remaining teams may be more profitable but the overall revenues have to take a big hit with fewer teams.

[jimd]

I don't buy it. Bettman in essence serves the owners--owners who paid a lot of money for their franchises (hundreds of millions of dollars). If the league were to contract, that money/investment would be down the drain. No way the owners let that happen.

Personally, I would love to see a 16 to 20 team NHL, with a reduced schedule, and fewer teams making the playoffs. I just don't see it happening.

[James_E]

He noted that Bettman had rejected a 24% cut proposed by the players. He believe Bettman would have said no even if the players offered 40-50% cuts in pay.

I can't say for sure if Bettman wants to contract the league or not, but I would bet that he *would* reject 40-50% cuts. The reason for that has nothing to do with contraction/conspiracy. The NHL has made it clear from the beginning that nothing less than "cost certainty" will do (read: salary cap). 24% cut is alot, but the reason the league rejected it was that it still doesn't provide "cost certainty" as there is no cap and salaries would just continue to grow, within a few years eliminating the benefit of the one-time salary cut. This is the case even if the one-time cut was 50%... although it would obviously take longer.

Not sure I want to say much more. This lockout gets me very pissed off. Just so you know, in general I side with the players here.

[ubrakto]

He noted that Bettman had rejected a 24% cut proposed by the players. He believe Bettman would have said no even if the players offered 40-50% cuts in pay.

I can't say for sure if Bettman wants to contract the league or not, but I would bet that he *would* reject 40-50% cuts. The reason for that has nothing to do with contraction/conspiracy. The NHL has made it clear from the beginning that nothing less than "cost certainty" will do (read: salary cap). 24% cut is alot, but the reason the league rejected it was that it still doesn't provide "cost certainty" as there is no cap and salaries would just continue to grow, within a few years eliminating the benefit of the one-time salary cut. This is the case even if the one-time cut was 50%... although it would obviously take longer.

Not sure I want to say much more. This lockout gets me very pissed off. Just so you know, in general I side with the players here.

Yep. Any union proposal without a salary cap has been and will continue to be rejected if Bettman's public statements have an ounce of credibility to them. I'm with the players on this one too, but if they want to play hockey in the NHL in the next year or two (or more) there may be little choice but to bend over and take it. How depressing.

For me, January w/o being able follow Red Wings hockey really, really blows. February, with no NFL playoffs to divert my attention, will be worse.
---Todd

[jimd]

Just so you know, in general I side with the players here.

I just don't see how the NHL players can feel they deserve to be paid like NFL players when their sport is so unpopular. No one watches the NHL on TV. Last year's playoffs were beaten in the ratings by re-runs of "Full House". The only revenue comes from tickets and merchandising, which pales in comparison to big-time NFL TV money. I despise both Bettman and Goodenow, but I think the players are being short-sighted on this one.

[matthewk]

I'm surprised there hasn't been more discusion here about the strike. I don't hear mnuch about from ANY source, come to think of it.

On a sort-of related note: After taking a number of years off, I have now been ice skating 4 times this winter (now that the lake re-froze after our brief warm up last week). This has given me a renewed appreciation for hockey players and what they can do on skates. Moving around is hard enough without having to control a puck and be on watch for other guys trying to bury you into the boards all at the same time.

[wco81]

I'm surprised there hasn't been more discusion here about the strike. I don't hear mnuch about from ANY source, come to think of it.

That itself is a kind of indictment against the sport. The NHL would be in full swing now and it seems they're not missed very much.

Probably missed by a lot of businesses near the arenas, however.

The players' problems pale in comparison. A lot of them are playing overseas and still making good money.

[dbdynsty25]

The reason no one is talking about it is because there are very few people that care about hockey. For me personally, I miss it a little bit. This year would have been a fun year to watch the Coyotes, but with the success of the Suns, I could care less. It's just a bunch of greedy millionaires, trying to be bigger millionaires. I hardly feel sorry for them.

The NHL has been getting worse and worse for years. The trapping style made famous by the Devils in the 90's has destroyed what fluidness and speed the NHL posessed. In my opinon, that is the reason the NHL isn't working in the United States right now. Sure, there are some, but very few) die hard hockey towns (Detroit is the best example)...but for the most part, the towns care about one of the other sports teams more.

[James_E]

Just so you know, in general I side with the players here.

I just don't see how the NHL players can feel they deserve to be paid like NFL players when their sport is so unpopular. No one watches the NHL on TV. Last year's playoffs were beaten in the ratings by re-runs of "Full House". The only revenue comes from tickets and merchandising, which pales in comparison to big-time NFL TV money. I despise both Bettman and Goodenow, but I think the players are being short-sighted on this one.

I agree, perhaps the players are paid too much. Some of the contracts are ridiculous.

But it is the owner's fault for giving them the money! The players just signed to the highest bidder like anyone else would. Owner's have been VERY stupid the last 5 years.

That is why Bettman wants a cap... to protect the owner's from their own stupidity.

[JRod]

A cap isn't going to solve the league's woes. It will help but the league problems are much bigger because it isn't a more popular sport. Let's say a team can't keep its players and is struggling to manage under the cap, the average fan is just going to lost interest because they will never know who's on their team. Which hurts ticket sales, merchandise etc.

If Hockey is going to come out of this they are going to have to do something that's different from the other leagues. Some how allow teams to keep star players without breaking the bank or having turnover elminate the fan's interest.

I don't know what that is.

[GridIronGhost]

Let's say a team can't keep its players and is struggling to manage under the cap, the average fan is just going to lost interest because they will never know who's on their team. Which hurts ticket sales, merchandise etc.

Sounds like the problem I'm already having with my Dodgers! Who the %$^# is on that team? I love the Dodgers, but man...it's a b*tch when alot of my favorite players are gone!

[XXXIV]

And since hockey is much less established than baseball in the minds of the public, it'll take more than Cal Ripken Jr. to bring hockey back to it's pre-lockout level of "popularity".

How about steroids??
They helped bring baseball back...according to the tools I watch on TV.

[mobiggins]

I think contraction would go a long way in helping the league's woes, which will no doubt linger well after the CBA is finalized. The league should contract and shuffle some teams around, put teams in places where you know you will get a sold-out game night-in, night-out, and figure it out from there.
I think the NHL could stand to get rid of:
Florida
Tampa Bay
Columbus
Nashville
Atlanta
Carolina
Anaheim
San Jose
Phoenix

I'm not sure about the strength of hockey in all those cities; on some it's just speculation on my part. I know some would add Dallas to the list, but I can tell you that this city took to hockey like no other. Since the stars came to town, rinks have mushroomed, to the point where we have something like 15 hockey rinks. That's a huge amount for a city anywhere in the south. Games are almost always sold out at the AAC, too.
This may be the case in the above cities, I don't know.

I would also look into re-instating franchises in Winnipeg and Quebec City, as well as adding teams in Hamilton and Halifax. At least there you know you will have butts in seats all the time. A sold-out arena every night seems like a good place to start.

[GROGtheNailer]

I keep hearing how hockey is not that big in the states, true enough in most places I guess but it seems to be very regional in the USA. That being said, i always tend to think who gives a rat's ass? It's always going to be huge in Canada so they need to get it away from the places where it's not appreciated for what it is.

I'm for a salary cap of some sort. The players aren't going to win this one I suspect. This is not about hockey but about money. Millionares ( the owners) are going to stick together on this one because they are not going to keep on losing money. I think they regret not sticking together on this in 1994 and they are in for the long haul this time. I think the players are going to blink first.

Something has got to be done, as much as I miss hockey i want this resolved one way or another. Has a salary cap helped the NFL? Not sure, not big on the financial part of the NFL.

The players are going to get a salary cap rammed down their throats or some sort of concession.

[GTHobbes]

And since hockey is much less established than baseball in the minds of the public, it'll take more than Cal Ripken Jr. to bring hockey back to it's pre-lockout level of "popularity".

How about steroids??
They helped bring baseball back...according to the tools I watch on TV.

Great post, XXXIV....

[LAking]

think the NHL could stand to get rid of:
Florida
Tampa Bay
Columbus
Nashville
Atlanta
Carolina
Anaheim
San Jose
Phoenix

Your guess is fine on all except San Jose. They have a great fan base and consistantly sell out games. So you can leave them off the list even though, as a Kings fan, I hate their guts.

[LAking]

Hockey has always had much more in-season player movement than any other major sport. Only some of this is financially motivated; it's more often driven by a Coach/GM looking to mix up his team's lines or locker room. If the players have low recognition to begin with, keeping them chained to the same team isn't going to help much.

Salary caps and revenue sharing are the only approaches that anyone has come up with to solve big-market/big-spender disparity. I suppose some combination of the two will eventually happen in the NHL, if the league survives. But the lockout will have repercussions for years to come. The fans, players and owners will not forget what didn't happen this year. The lingering bad feelings between the league and NHLPA will make it harder to institute needed changes either on the ice or in the boardroom. And since hockey is much less established than baseball in the minds of the public, it'll take more than Cal Ripken Jr. to bring hockey back to it's pre-lockout level of "popularity".

You know there is an article at espn.com that believes the exact opposite. Most of hockey's fan base is made up of die hard fans, therefor the after effect of the lockout will be much less severe than that of baseball because the die hards (like me) will always come back. They pointed out that baseball lives and dies by a huge casual fanbase, while hockey is mostly die hard. Interesting point and something to really consider. After the last lockout NHL attendance actually increased the next two seasons.

[dbdynsty25]

Actually Phoenix is a damn good hockey town, especially if the Coyotes are decent. They've got a brand new crib and that thing was rocking last year even though they were terrible. This year would have been better with Hull and Ricci coming over...I'm kinda disappointed I won't get to see them play.

[LAking]

They've got a brand new crib and that thing was rocking last year even though they were terrible

Ummm, what Phoenix are you talking about? Watching the Kings i naturally saw them play the Coyotes fairly often and it was often pointed out that the Coyotes sold out the first game in the new building and then barely sold out any more. For a while they didn't sell out ANY games at the new arena aside from the opener. Not sure exactly how long that lasted but that's not good at all. I don't care how bad a team is, the new arena honeymoon period usually lasts longer than THAT.

[dbdynsty25]

They've got a brand new crib and that thing was rocking last year even though they were terrible

Ummm, what Phoenix are you talking about? Watching the Kings i naturally saw them play the Coyotes fairly often and it was often pointed out that the Coyotes sold out the first game in the new building and then barely sold out any more.

Well I did go to 7 games last year and each time it was either sold out or at least most of the way full. You don't sell out arenas when your team is terrible. I also went to two Kings games at Staples...the Coyotes games were A LOT better in terms of the noise level and fan interaction. Given, the Kings were bad too, but still.

I remember the good ol' days with Roenick and company...there was no area better for playoff hockey. Everyone dressed in white with towels...it was freakin' crazy.

[GROGtheNailer]

Most of hockey's fan base is made up of die hard fans, therefor the after effect of the lockout will be much less severe than that of baseball

I think thats right on the money...excellent point.

[LAking]

Well I did go to 7 games last year and each time it was either sold out or at least most of the way full. You don't sell out arenas when your team is terrible. I also went to two Kings games at Staples...the Coyotes games were A LOT better in terms of the noise level and fan interaction. Given, the Kings were bad too, but still.

It may have been a decent atmosphere but when you can't sellout games in a brand new arena it's a very bad sign. That new arena giddyness will wear off, and if the games aren't sold out now, they are gonna be much worse in a year or two. Phoenix is just not a hockey town. It won't last forever. And as far as the kings go, the last two seasons have been some of the best in franchise history despite losing every star player to injury and not making the playoffs. Last season they set a franchise attendance record. It hasn't been this good since Gretzky was in town, and this time you know it's real fans not just celebs jumping on the bandwagon. Anyway, I just think Phoenix would be a logical place to look if the league were to contract. Not for sure, but you would have to put them on the initial list of possibilities. I don't think they will contract at all so it's not even worth thinking about it.

[ScoopBrady]

Most of hockey's fan base is made up of die hard fans, therefor the after effect of the lockout will be much less severe than that of baseball

I think thats right on the money...excellent point.

Hockey is my second favorite sport, a very close second to football. I will be back day one whenever it is. I am seriously missing hockey right now and quite upset at the whole situation. Who do I blame? Both the owners and players. The owners let the salaries get out of hand and the players know that the owners will accept nothing less than a salary cap yet they won't give in even though the sport is barely a blip on anyone but the die hard fans radar. First they just need to resume playing then they can worry about fixing hockey.