OT: My Fantasy Football Nightmare

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Diablo25
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OT: My Fantasy Football Nightmare

Post by Diablo25 »

Lost Charles Rogers on Sunday (collarbone)...now Steve Smith last night (broken leg). What a first friggin' week. At least I won the week.
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pigpen81
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Post by pigpen81 »

I won my week with a team the CPU picked for me.

Goes to show that I should never be involved with my team....

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Leebo33
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Post by Leebo33 »

pigpen81 wrote:I won my week with a team the CPU picked for me.

Goes to show that I should never be involved with my team....
LOL. That reminds me of a time when I was on a three game losing streak and I had my female boss who didn't know anything about football choose my starting lineup for a week. I just kept the lineup in for the last 6 games or so and won the Super Bowl!

I've always contented that fantasy football is 50% skill (preparation, draft strategy, knowledge), 25% keeping current during the season (bye-weeks, injuries, free agents), and 25% pure luck.

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Dave
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Post by Dave »

I would put luck much higher.

Last year, I needed a win in the final week to make the playoffs. Had the #2 scoring team (ahead of #3 by a very wide margin) and consistently scored #2 or #3 highest points for the week. Just so happened to be facing 1 or 2 for about 4 weeks straight.
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Leebo33
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Post by Leebo33 »

There are certainly swings in luck if you look at a small period of time. However, based on my experience in two leagues (one entering its 9th season and the other the 5th) luck evens out over the long hual. The guys that consistently draft well and keep current as far as injuries almost always finish near the top and give themselves a chance. In the 15 team league one guy has won it 3 times in 9 years and in my other league one owner has won it 3 out of the past 4 years.

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matthewk
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Post by matthewk »

I'd place luck at about 40%. Draft planning and strategy are still about 45-50%. If you have a good team you don't need to do a lot of dropping and adding during the season, so that amounts to about 15%.

As a side note, one of my keepers in one of my leagues was Michael Bennett. We drfated on the 14th, so he was healthy at the time. I figured I was lucky to draft Williams as a backup in the 12 round.

Every year 1 of my 2 keepers in that league is a bust. It's like starting off with a 1 player handicap every year. In the past I've had Galloway (the year he held out for the 'Hawks), McNabb (last year's fantasy debacle), etc...

At least I've still managed to win 2 titles in 7 years :)
-Matt

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Brando70
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Post by Brando70 »

Yeah, drafting well pretty much determines the finishes in most cases. If you suffer a freak rash of injuries, there's nothing you can do, but a good draft should give you some depth so you can stay competitive or make some trades to shore up your troubled areas. Usually a team that falters completely due to injuries is a team that had problems to begin with and can't absorb the extra impact of losing key players.

I lucked out in being able to keep Shaun Alexander and Peyton Manning in my eight-team keeper league. Manning is such a lock, I didn't even draft a back-up -- our league is small enough that I can find a decent bye week player. Now, if Manning gets hurt, I would say that's not bad luck as much as it is gambling that he'll have another injury-free season.

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Post by dbdynsty25 »

Luck is easily 50%. I scored the 2nd highest point total this week in my 15 team league. Who scored the first? The guy I played of course. It didn't help that I lost Rodgers as well. Had he not went down and gotten 6 points I would won. Bastards.

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XXXIV
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Re: OT: My Fantasy Football Nightmare

Post by XXXIV »

Diablo25 wrote:Lost Charles Rogers on Sunday
Hey!

I lost him too.........good thing I didnt start him.

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Post by Neckthai »

I scored 127 points in my league this week. I outscored every team in the league except for the one I played. And that was the guy who asked "Is that guy hurt?" on every pick.

The horror. The horror.

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