MLB Season 2015

[dbdynsty25]

So Heyward to the Cubs. Cardinals now going after Gordon, who I actually think is better overall than Heyward, even though I've got a mancrush on JH. No way in hell he's worth 200 million, especially playing CF (his value decreases when moving from right as far as defense goes). Cards should be thankful the Cubs are paying that bill.

That said, holy sh*t the Cubs are loaded and YOUNG. They are going to be so good for the next ten years.

[RobVarak]

So Heyward to the Cubs. Cardinals now going after Gordon, who I actually think is better overall than Heyward, even though I've got a mancrush on JH. No way in hell he's worth 200 million, especially playing CF (his value decreases when moving from right as far as defense goes). Cards should be thankful the Cubs are paying that bill.

That said, holy sh*t the Cubs are loaded and YOUNG. They are going to be so good for the next ten years.

He's as worth $200m as any position player, inasmuch as he's essentially unique. You just don't see 26 year-old FA's with his skill set enter the market. This is a mile away from paying a 30 year-old SP the same kind of money.

As for Gordon being better, I just can't see that. They have both provided almost exactly the same production, only Heyward has done it in 1/3 less time and is 5 years younger! The best thing you could say is that their peak values are similar...only Gordon is past his peak and Heyward still hasn't peaked.

I'm not losing my mind here. He's not a HOF player and $200m is crazy money. But the Cubs won't be saddled with him in his decline phase, they're getting better revenue from the park now and it's only getting better, and they've got very little money tied up long-term. Add to that the improving TV money, and it's far from a foolish contract.

[dbdynsty25]

He's as worth $200m as any position player, inasmuch as he's essentially unique. You just don't see 26 year-old FA's with his skill set enter the market. This is a mile away from paying a 30 year-old SP the same kind of money.

I know you're in the habit of countering every single thing I say about any subject, so let me counterbalance your excitement a bit. Watch Heyward play ball for more than a couple games a year (which you'll get to shortly). The skills, the tools, all beyond exceptional. Like ridiculously talented. He hasn't even come close to living up to those skills. He's the ultimate hit homers when it doesn't matter, popup and groundout to SS on the regular because he's too pull happy type of player in clutch spots. It's soooooo frustrating. I can't explain how frustrating he is in words. He's got everything going for him...tools, charisma, flash...he just lacks that certain IT...you want to see from your 184 million dollar player (confirmed cost, 8 years 184).

I root for him...I want him to be the .310avg, 25hr, 110rbi, 30sb player he should be. He just can't put it together.

All that said. Only 26.

And thank god he didn't end up with the Nationals.

[Aristo]

I wish the Cards has signed him, but I don't think losing out on him is the end of the world. That's not the kind of contract Cardinals would normally offer. It's a lot of money, but more importantly, a lot of years. The Cubs are one knee injury from a terrible deal. They may have the money to deal with it, but the cardinals, while they have resources, still don't have major market wiggle room for when a contract goes bad.

But yeah, his age is the big plus. I think he is going to be great long term.

[dbdynsty25]

I wish the Cards has signed him, but I don't think losing out on him is the end of the world. That's not the kind of contract Cardinals would normally offer. It's a lot of money, but more importantly, a lot of years. The Cubs are one knee injury from a terrible deal. They may have the money to deal with it, but the cardinals, while they have resources, still don't have major market wiggle room for when a contract goes bad.

But yeah, his age is the big plus. I think he is going to be great long term.

As Rob said, at least he's not a pitcher. Much less risk giving that kind of scratch to a position player from an injury standpoint. It's rare that position players have career ending, or even debilitating injuries these days. Now if his thumb and wrist start hurting again like it did in Atlanta...he's a shell of himself.

[Brando70]

There's no question that money is ridiculous, but in terms of what the Cubs want to do in the next 3-4 years, I love it. He's a great fit for the roster. Plus it has an extra impact of robbing a division rival of a valuable player.

[Aristo]

Yep. I would not have been upset if the Cardinals had signed him to that contract. I was just pointing out that the Cardinals tend to avoid those contracts on principle.

And yeah, they are even more conservative with pitchers. Their general rule is to only go long with pitchers they are re-signing. The odds are better when you are paying a guy that you have had under a microscope for years.

The Cubs are not screwing around.

[RobVarak]

I know you're in the habit of countering every single thing I say about any subject, so let me counterbalance your excitement a bit.

Nah, you say all kinds of foolish $hit that I let go. Who has time to keep up?

Watch Heyward play ball for more than a couple games a year (which you'll get to shortly). The skills, the tools, all beyond exceptional. Like ridiculously talented. He hasn't even come close to living up to those skills. He's the ultimate hit homers when it doesn't matter, popup and groundout to SS on the regular because he's too pull happy type of player in clutch spots. It's soooooo frustrating. I can't explain how frustrating he is in words. He's got everything going for him...tools, charisma, flash...he just lacks that certain IT...you want to see from your 184 million dollar player (confirmed cost, 8 years 184).

I root for him...I want him to be the .310avg, 25hr, 110rbi, 30sb player he should be. He just can't put it together.

All that said. Only 26.

And thank god he didn't end up with the Nationals.

I understand that frustration, especially since he's had two seasons curtailed by injuries. Potential is a squishy concept, and I accept that he might have fallen short of expectations. But the nice thing about having six solid seasons in the bank though is that he's got a pretty clear level of measurable performance established. He's a solid 5-7 WAR player, great baserunner and an elite defender. I don't put a lot of stock in clutch/meaningless etc. because that tends to be eye-test stuff and eyes tend to be wrong. Fangraph's "Clutch" analysis, which is better than anything else out there, but still deeply flawed, puts him at a very slightly above average clutch hitter. Much better than Gordon in that regard, btw.

He'll probably give the Cubs a year or two where he freaks out and goes 7-9 WAR, but mostly stays down around 4-5, all of which will make him worth the money.

He also apparently has a player option after year 4 if he hits PA targets, so this might end up being 4/92m, which is even better.

It's worth $184m just to watch the fans from South Green Bay freak the hell out and threaten the guy's family on twitter.

[tjung0831]

Could care less about Heyward leaving...he actually turned down more money from the Cards because the Cubs offered him the opt out clause. Cards need to forget about Gordon and sign Davis or Cespedes which is what they truly need.

[MizzouRah]

Like Pujols.. bye bye JH.. have fun in Chicago.

Cardinals will be fine.. but the Cubbies are bringing it!

[Inuyasha]

That said, holy sh*t the Cubs are loaded and YOUNG. They are going to be so good for the next ten years.

Call me cynical but I've heard that too many times and the Cubs have never delivered.

Cubs need to get pitching. I don't see Arieta having the season like last year.

Cards and pirates are still favorites unless the Cubs get some real arms in the starting rotation.

[RobVarak]

That said, holy sh*t the Cubs are loaded and YOUNG. They are going to be so good for the next ten years.

Call me cynical but I've heard that too many times and the Cubs have never delivered.

Cubs need to get pitching. I don't see Arieta having the season like last year.

Cards and pirates are still favorites unless the Cubs get some real arms in the starting rotation.

They've made it pretty clear that they're still going to get at least one younger, salary-controlled arm for the rotation. Hoping they don't have to deal Soler to do it, but it'll probably be him or Baez plus some other lesser prospects.

[dbdynsty25]

That said, holy sh*t the Cubs are loaded and YOUNG. They are going to be so good for the next ten years.

Call me cynical but I've heard that too many times and the Cubs have never delivered.

Cubs need to get pitching. I don't see Arieta having the season like last year.

Cards and pirates are still favorites unless the Cubs get some real arms in the starting rotation.

They've made it pretty clear that they're still going to get at least one younger, salary-controlled arm for the rotation. Hoping they don't have to deal Soler to do it, but it'll probably be him or Baez plus some other lesser prospects.

Already riumors going around they might flip Soler to the Braves for Inciarte so Heyward can move to his natural position. From what I can tell Inciarte is an awesome defensive OF that plays center so with him and Heyward you can let Shwarber (sp?) Play on the line and just let the other guys go get em.