Fletch fantasy football season - PLAYOFF EDITION

[fletcher21]

I made the playoffs as the top seed (11-3). I play the 4th seed this week. If I can get past this game, I have awesome matchups next week for the championship game. I have a few question marks right now. My 2nd best player (DeMarco Murray) decided to break his ankle and is out for the year. My opponent has had Felix Jones on his bench all year long. Jones faces the worst rush D in the league this week, so that's going to be 100+ yards and a TD at least. I will be playing catchup.

Here's my lineup. Please give me any feedback you have.

Starting:

QB: Newton
RB1: Foster
RB2: Michael Bush
WR1: Colston
WR2: Austin
Flex: Gronkowski
Def: Cincy, Jets or Tennessee
Kicker: Bailey

Bench:

WR: Laurent Robinson
RB: Tate
WR: Vjax
WR: Kevin Smith
RB: SJax
QB: Rivers
QB: Tebow





I am not sure what to do with my WR situation. Austin is a big risk to injury himself and lay an egg. Robinson is barely used now with Austin back, so he's worthless if he doesn't get a long TD. I really like Kevin Smith's matchup, but he's a huge injury risk too so I don't think I can roll with him. Can Gronk keep up his epic season? My guess is that he will not score this week, but he's hard to bench. I'm also seriously considering benching Newton (against a tough Houston team) for Tebow against the porous Patrious defense. Is this nuts of me? Any feedback? I know most of you won't give a s*** about my fantasy team, but there's some huge money on the line here and I'd like to use it to add to my daughter's college fund. Thanks.

[Danimal]

We really needed another thread for this?

[fletcher21]

Just looking for help to make a few thousand bucks. If you dislike the thread then IGNORE IT. I'm sure db will be in here to say the same thing that it's a bullshit thread and a waste of time. I'm just looking for a few decent opinions from those of you on here who know a lot about football. If you don't like it or don't want to help, there are plenty of other threads on here to post in. I barely even post on this site, so I guess maybe this is the wrong place for it.

[pk500]

The Pats' secondary is very porous. But Tebow showed he could throw the ball downfield only in last week's game, so I don't think it's a lock that he'll shred the Patriots' secondary.

But considering Carolina is playing Houston and San Diego is playing Baltimore, Tebow might be your best bet under center -- especially if you get points for QB total offense.

You CAN'T bench Gronkowski. The dude is having one of the greatest offensive seasons by a tight end in NFL history. Plus Brady didn't play that well last Sunday, and he always finds a way to say "f*ck you, world" to critics the following weekend. He'll probably have a strong game this Sunday, even against the Broncos' stiff defense.

[fletcher21]

Thanks, Paul! Yes, I get points for QB offense. 6 points per rush TD. 4 points for every TD pass. 1 point for every 25 passing yards. 1 point for every 10 rush yards. I have a sick feeling that between Newton and Tebow, only one of them will play well and I'll start the wrong one. I know that's the beauty of this game, but last week I guessed wrong on every move I made. I still won, but only because I faced the worst team in the league.

I am leaning Tebow right now. I could see the Patriots up by 14 or more for most of the game. Tebow can throw to Decker and can run the option. If Tebow doesn't put up at least 50 rushing yards and maybe a rushing TD, I may be sunk. Next week Newton plays Tampa, so I need to win this week to skate to a championship.



Between Austin and Laurent Robinson, who do you guys like more? Robinson only played less than 1/2 of the snaps last week since he is not a part of the 2 WR sets (Austin and Dez), but he always seems to come up with a 40+ yard TD catch. Ugh!

[RallyMonkey]

I don't know how you can sit the 4th highest scorer in fantasy football this year. I have Newton as well and have many times thought about sitting him but in the end the guy is just filthy. Unlike Timmy Terrific, Newton can throw the ball so in a situation where Carolina might get down early, Newton can make the passes to put up some points for your team. If Denver falls behind big, which I do think will happen, Tebow can't make the passes to bring them back and the option goes out the window. So for me, the upside of Newton, his running ability, and his arm strength outweigh Tebow and his legs/magic. I also think if there is a coach who can scheme well for a guy like Tebow its Belichick, even with the worst cover corners and safeties in the NFL.

As far as Austin v Robinson, I always go with the guy who gets more snaps and more targets, and Austin had more of both in week 1 of his return. And I too have both of these guys as well and I am starting Austin this week.

[fletcher21]

Thanks for the reply Rally. I know it's shocking to even think about benching Newton, but it's hard for me to look past the fact that something called Dan Orlofsky (sp) threw for 300 yards against the Patriots. Tebow CAN make the throws (see the Vikings game) if the coaches let him. I remember watching the first game of the year when the Pats faced the Dolphins. Chad Henne looked like Dan Marino out there. I think he went for around 400 yards. Marshall and Bess are good, but 400 yards is dreadful. I really do not think the Patriots can make a game plan to stop Tebow. EVERY QB who has played the Patriots has scored 17+ fantasy points this year except for one guy, who is such a scrub I can't remember his name.

If I sit Newton and he goes for 25+ points, I'll feel like a fool. I just have a huge hunch that he's going to throw 3 or more INT and be held under 40 yards rushing. My opponent has Jones Drew, Reggie Bush, Tony Romo and Felix Jones, all with A+ matchups. He could score 80 points out of just those 4 players. I need to hit a home run here, and I think the right call may actually be Tebow....

[Wilk5280]

I know Houston's D is one of the best in the league, but take a look at the trends in fantasy scoring and you'll see that their D has been trending down the last couple of weeks.

Newton should be able to avoid the sacks with his feet and he's a different animal from what that defense has been playing. It's all a matter of whether or not he'll start to throw picks again. Last week the announcers, with their uncanny ability, jinxed the s*** out him. They highlighted how many consecutive possessions he's gone without throwing an interception and 2 snaps later he threw one. Then, of course, on his next possession he threw another one.

With that being said, I'm in a somewhat similar situation as you. He's been my staple at QB since about week 4, but I also have Ryan and Eli on my bench and I'm considering playing one of them in his place this week. It's our championship week and while I don't have a couple grand on the line, I can come out with just shy of $700.00 if I win.

A big part of me is thinking two things:
1. Go with who got you here
2. Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make

I'd be pissed at myself if I changed it up and he winds up going off. I'm most likely going to stick with him as my QB.

[fletcher21]

Perfect storm. Playing against Roddy, Ryan, Falcons D and MJD = I am down by 80. This season is over for me. Thanks for all the advice. I flew into a rage and smashed my tv to pieces. Luckily it was my cheap $600 Best Buy tv, but it's destroyed and will be retired to the trash tomorrow. f***in worthless "hobby" fantasy football is.

[HipE]

http://www.miph.org/projects/gambling-p ... rce-center

[ScoopBrady]

http://www.miph.org/projects/gambling-p ... rce-center

I made it to the Super Bowl in my league this week and I'm off to a great start with Roddy White getting me 25 points.

[ScoopBrady]

My team:
QB Carson Palmer, Oak QB - 18
RB Ryan Mathews, SD RB - 22
RB Ryan Grant, GB RB -9
RB/WR Calvin Johnson, Det WR - 33
WR Roddy White, Atl WR - 25
WR Wes Welker, NE WR - 4
TE Greg Olsen, Car TE - 1
D/ST 49ers D/ST D/ST
K Neil Rackers, Hou K - 6
TOTAL POINTS: 118


My opponents team:
QB Drew Brees, NO QB - 34
RB Arian Foster, Hou RB - 19
RB Darren Sproles, NO RB - 16
RB/WR Doug Baldwin, Sea WR - 1
WR Lance Moore, NO WR - 21
WR Jabar Gaffney, Wsh WR - 8
TE Antonio Gates, SD TE - 3
D/ST Cardinals D/ST - 5
K Stephen Gostkowski, NE K - 11
TOTAL POINTS: 118

I am 1 point from winning my first fantasy football title ever. Wish me luck, fellas because my usual luck would have the 49ers defense scoring negative points.

[dbdynsty25]

How the hell is your opponent in the Super Bowl? Nice wide receiving corp. You better win or you might as well quit forever.

[Badger_Fan]

I'm in the semis and it's tied heading into tonight. I have the 49ers defense, he has the Steelers defense. Seems arbitrary as all get out, but it is what it is.

[ScoopBrady]

How the hell is your opponent in the Super Bowl? Nice wide receiving corp. You better win or you might as well quit forever.

We had an auction draft this year and I was in a bidding war with my opponent for Brees. When it got to high I figured I'd go cheap at QB with Cutler and spend what I would have on Brees for Megatron and Welker. My opponent started 0-4-1 and then didn't lose the rest of the way. Until last night! I had to replace Cutler with Palmer and in a game I needed to win to make the playoffs Forte went down in the 1st quarter. I somehow won but needed to pick up Toby Gearhart to beat the leagues best team last week and Ryan Grant to win this week. My finest fantasy season ever and it is only because I finally realized that it is a passing league and placed more emphasis on receivers than on running backs. I figured Forte and Mathews could carry me and they mostly did. Now if only the Bears could do as good without Cutler and Forte.

[matthewk]

I made it into my league's Super Bowl thanks to a missed FG by Pittsburgh last night

Despite the NFL being a passing league, I've been winning with the 1st/2nd round pick combination of McCoy and MJD. It's a 14 team league, and I didn't want to get stuck starting Ricky Williams each week. QBs did fly off the board early in our league though.

[TCrouch]

My opponent started 0-4-1 and then didn't lose the rest of the way.

That sounds awfully similar to my season. I started 1-5 thanks to Philip Rivers being horrific, and ended up finishing the season 9-5 and the #3 seed in the playoffs.

In my first playoff game this weekend, I played (of course) the #2 seed, who had basically the entire Packers team: Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, Crosby, the Packers D...in a game where they only put up 14 points total. I destroyed him (started Carson Palmer instead of Rivers, which sorta sucked, but oh well) by 25 points, and move on to the Super Bowl in my league next week against Brady and MJD...could be a rough game.

[fletcher21]

http://www.miph.org/projects/gambling-p ... rce-center

lol Eric...



I have calmed down a bit from my loss. My opponent had the highest score ever in the 12 year history of his league. I had enough points to beat every other player besides him. It's just funny to me how lucky he got. Blow up games from Roddy, Ryan, Hernandez and even Reggie freaking Bush. When Reggie Bush runs for over 200 yards against you, it's murder she wrote. Pretty raw deal since it's Christmas time and I could have used the 5k. The guy who beat me owns 3 houses and makes over 250k a year, so I told him to "give to the needy like me" and he laughed. You win some and you lose some, but this defeat has pushed me over the edge and I'll never play FF again. I was watching the Dolphins game live when Bush broke that long ass td run. Just hung my head low in anger and frustration. Good luck to the rest of you in your super bowls.


FF is a joke. Too much luck and flukes. I feel bad for people who had AP this week and only got 6 points from him, while BUMS like Cj Spiller went for nearly 6x that much

[dbdynsty25]

Reggie has been a top 4 running back for the last 8 weeks. So yeah...not exactly a surprise he's running like crazy. You deserve it.

And yes, FF is a complete fluke...I agree. That's why I just kind of wing it each week because there really isn't a way to predict what the hell happens in the NFL weekly. And I'm in the finals of 2 of my 3 leagues...so winging it works too!

[fletcher21]

I'm just bitter. Reggie is like Sproles, but with a lot bigger injury risk. They held him pretty much in check up until that run. I think he had around 110 yards or so at that point. I would have won had he not broken that long TD. I was hoping they'd give Daniel Thomas more looks, but that's how it is. I guess Reggie really does have it in him to be an every down back. Too bad New Orleans got rid of him. Ivory looks like a pretty good back, but Reggie would decimate all if he was getting 15-20 touches a game from the Saints. I bet he'd have scored 20 TD this year if he had Brees handing off and throwing him screens. No one has a better screen game than the Saints.

I debated Cam Newton or Tebow and I went Cam. I would have still lost with Tebow, but barely. I have a feeling Cam will be a top 12 pick next year. Year of the QB in first round if I played again. No sense in drafting a RB first. I'd take Rodgers, Brees or Cam over any of the top backs. I would be in the champ game had DeMarco not gone down. There are waiver wire finds every year.