Below is a handy summary of the contenders in the AFC and their recent history against the Patriots.
A trendy pick is the Jaguars but their pass defense is pretty average. Yeah if they can run on the Pats like the Ravens did, maybe they can control the clock.
But I would have liked them more to soften up the Pats by giving them a physical game. Even though they handled the Steelers fairly easily earlier this month in Pittsburgh, it's going to be a very physical game for them, which even if they win, will leave them in a weakened state to go up against the Pats.
Chargers, despite their win streak, don't look that good. They may get their playoff win against the Titans but their pass offense just isn't there. They had the lowest number of receptions by WRs, which is saying something when they're in the same league as the 49ers. Can Rivers step up?
Colts, with Freeney out and Harrison's status uncertain, may get to the championship game but aren't likely to be able to slow down the Pats enough or score with them.
Team would have to score 35 or 40 points at least to beat the Patriots at Foxboro, unless the weather conditions are absolutely horrid.
Can any AFC team defeat the Patriots?
Big sword needed to slay this dragon
Daniel Brown
Mercury News
Article Launched: 01/02/2008 01:57:04 AM PST
Can anybody in the AFC keep pace with New England?
Sure, just as long as it's a combined effort. Take the Jaguars' running game, the Steelers' defense, the Colts' quarterback and - voila! - the Patriots might win by only two touchdowns!
Oddsmakers have recognized just how predictable these playoffs could be, listing the Patriots as 1-to-4 favorites to win the Super Bowl.
It would be like betting on Fred Astaire to win "Dancing With the Stars."
By comparison, the Pittsburgh Steelers - no slouches as a No. 4 seed featuring the NFL's top-rated defense - are listed as a 40-to-1 shot.
That's how stacked the deck can look when a team goes 16-0 and scores an NFL-record 589 points.
The Patriots beat all comers by an average score of 37-17. In six games against teams that wound up in the playoffs this season, the average score was Patriots 39, Pretender 20.
"Hats off to us," Patriots receiver Randy Moss said after the season finale. "In this game of football, it's hard to go 16-0. As a football player and a fan of the game, my hat's off to this organization."
There were, however, also rare occasions when New England looked vulnerable - even temporarily - which provides a few clues for the AFC opponents hoping to slay the dragon.
The Philadelphia Eagles put up a fight Nov. 25 when defensive coordinator Jim Johnson utilized a combination of three- and four-man fronts and blitzing creatively. This game plan did the impossible
- it knocked Tom Brady out of rhythm and minimized the impact of Moss.
The Baltimore Ravens also unleashed a wide array of blitzes in a 27-24 defeat the next week. And the Ravens' offense helped keep Brady and Co. off the field by pounding away with a no-nonsense running game, with Willis McGahee rushing for 138 yards in 30 carries.
In the end, of course, neither game plan mattered. New England figured it out on both occasions in time to yell "checkmate."
"You're not going to fool Tom Brady, that's all there is to it," Patriots receiver Wes Welker said after catching 13 passes in the Eagles game. "As much as you try, it's not going to happen. Tom is simply too good and too smart - and that's the bottom line."
But for those who need to dream, here is a primer on where to hang your hopes:
No. 2 seed: Indianapolis
Offense: Fifth overall (sixth pass, eighth rush).
Defense: Third overall (second pass, 15th rush).
Last meeting with Patriots: 24-20 defeat at Indianapolis on Nov. 4.
Dragon-Slayer factor: The Colts' best asset is that they won't be intimidated, having won in Foxboro twice since 2005 and having defeated the Pats in last season's AFC title game. In their loss to New England this season, the Colts carved a 10-point fourth-quarter lead even though they lacked receiver Marvin Harrison (knee bruise). Rookie receiver Anthony Gonzalez developed a rapport with Peyton Manning in Harrison's absence, giving the Colts yet another weapon to keep pace with the Pats.
Harrison has been sidelined for 11 of the past 12 games, but Coach Tony Dungy has no fears about rust when the receiver returns for the postseason.
"This is not a first- or second-year guy we're dealing with. He's a Hall of Famer who's caught almost a thousand balls from Peyton Manning," Dungy said Sunday.
No. 3 seed: San Diego
Offense: 20th (26th pass, seventh rush).
Defense: 14th (14th pass, 16th rush).
Last meeting with Patriots: 38-14 defeat at New England on Sept. 16.
Dragon-Slayer factor: After a slow start, the Chargers regained their swagger by going 6-0 down the stretch and racking up 30.5 points per game. San Diego has not won a playoff game since going to the Super Bowl after the 1994 season but seems to be peaking at the right time. San Diego has been playing mistake-free, with an NFL-best plus-24 turnover ratio, which is an essential ingredient against New England. "We have the tools in the locker room to beat any team," defensive lineman Igor Olshansky said. Lack of offensive balance could hurt them: running back LaDainian Tomlinson is as dynamic as ever, but the Chargers completed only 117 passes to wide receivers, the lowest total in the NFL.
No. 4 Seed: Pittsburgh
Offense: 17th (22nd pass, third rush).
Defense: First (third pass, third rush).
Last meeting with Patriots: 34-13 defeat at New England on Dec. 9.
Dragon-Slayer factor: The Steelers won the Super Bowl as a wild card two years ago, so this route looks like Easy Street by comparison. If he gets the chance, defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is one of the few minds brilliant enough to match wits with Brady and Co. He loves the zone blitz coming off multiple looks. The Steelers allowed just 219 yards per game this season, the best since Miami's 212 in 2002. Pittsburgh lost a major force when running back Willie Parker broke his leg, but quarterback Ben Roethlisberger would not be afraid to shoot it out with the Patriots. His 104.1 rating trailed only Brady (117.2) among NFL passers. The offensive line, however, must rely on third-stringer Trai Essex at left tackle.
No. 5 Seed: Jacksonville
Offense: Seventh (17th pass, second rush).
Defense: 12th (15th pass, 11th rush).
Last meeting with Patriots: 24-21 defeat at Jacksonville on Dec. 24, 2006.
Dragon-Slayer factor: Might have the right recipe for defusing New England if the Jaguars get past the Steelers. The run-oriented Jaguars can bully their way toward big point totals, having scored at least three touchdowns in a team-record 10 consecutive games.
Rejuvenated running back Fred Taylor finished the season with five consecutive 100-yard games; he and running back Maurice Jones-Drew could help chew up the clock and keep the Patriots off the field.
Jacksonville can also strike quickly if it needs to, ranking in the NFL's top 10 for plays of 20 yards or longer. On defense, the Jaguars held 10 opponents to 17 points or fewer (same as New England).
No. 6 Seed: Tennessee
Offense: 21st (27th pass, fifth rush).
Defense: Fifth (10th pass, fifth rush).
Last meeting with Patriots: 40-23 defeat at Nashville on Dec. 31, 2006.
Dragon-Slayer factor: Fortunately for the Titans, they are not overly reliant on their most famous name, quarterback Vince Young, whose playing status is in jeopardy because of a strained right quadriceps. The Titans' nine touchdown passes are the fewest by any playoff team since 1978. Moreover, Young has struggled against 3-4 defenses such as the Patriots', so going to the more experienced Kerry Collins wouldn't be a huge setback. The key for the Titans is the defense, anchored by end Kyle Vanden Bosch and tackle Albert Haynesworth. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is not afraid of the overload blitz.
As another plus, Tennessee has been in playoff mode for a while, winning four of the past five to squeak in a last-second berth.
"The key here is not to all of a sudden take a deep breath, throw your arms up in the air and say, 'We made it,' " Coach Jeff Fisher said. "We made it, now we need to do something about it."
